Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

[BristolBaggie]

So has there been downgrades ?

So further downgrades? Just as train companies revise their timetables. Oh dear.

No downgrades at all. From FergieIan Fergusson â€@fergieweather6mW COUNTRY UPDATE 1630GMT Rain turning heavy this eve into tonight. Winds pick-up especially into early hours. Between 3-6am gusts 50-70mph..Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 3mW COUNTRY CONTD... with potential for short phase 80+ mph especially #Somerset from #Burnham up into #Bristol, N Somerset, #Mendips, #B&NESEdited by lfcdude, 12 minutes ago.

[Bristawl Si]

just gonna have to watch and wait on this time, it is still shown to deepen as it crosses the Uk , But doesn't seem to want to complete the development until it reaches Norway. To be honest on Satellite it is hard to see at the moment , and on GFS looks more like it has an open circulation , and really just merging with the other low to it's North. I have a feeling it won't have the impacts of a mega storm like the papers are all saying, And using the word hurricane strength winds is just worrying people for nothing .. In reality were not even likely to get tropical storm force sustained winds  ... I expect inland were looking at 25-30 mph gusting 40-50mph , on Southern Coasts and the Bristol Channel gusting 50-70 mph. lol, bet the Americans are laughing there socks off

Chris - read Ian F's latest tweets - it's going to be bad in our area for a few hours in the early hours. Even a 10 second gust of 60mph will cause damage.

[Captain Shortwave]

Regarding the latest GFS - I think some need to read the above by AWD, as it has been repeated by him as well as other posters several times at least.

 

It makes me wonder if people read much at all on here? 

There have been countless times when models like the GFS/UKMO etc have been closer to the mark than the high resolution models such as the NAE. 

[Bristawl Si]

No street lights in my road now anyway, they get turned off a midnight. Which is lovely for the star gazing, won't be for the snow lamp post watch though.

Same here - our local council in their infinite wisdom started this in the summer. Midnight to 5.00am - not great for winter snowflake watching.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The NMM is Interesting it deepens it over the UK , and seems to take it further North . 

 

 

 

[Duane S.]

Not going to get washed out to sea, why do people keep saying that

 

I'm with you on that one, will be heading off towards Chesil beach to watch the action at some point. As you have tried to point out, it is possible to watch the might of Mother Nature without being reckless at the same time!Those that venture onto the beach itself however are idotic beyond belief!

[scotteboi]

Jay on BBC News 24 still showing the 80mph 'red zone' across a large part of the uk and also urging people to delay their journeys to work in the morning, I have been away from the site from early this morning when things were looking like a downgrade? I take it the storm is now fully back on (if indeed if was ever 'off'?)

 

Thinking of nipping out to buy some more torch batteries...over-reaction or prudent?

 

Stay safe all if this comes off

Edited October 27, 2013 by scotteboi

[Ben Sainsbury]

Rainfall predictions:

(Not by me)

Edited October 27, 2013 by interestingweather

[tinybill]

well  the maps  coming  out  now  are  not looking  good  now  for south  and  east

[radiohead]

12Z HIRLAM shows a very tight pressure gradiant crossing the UK. I've been having problems using the site all day but managed to grab these.

 

It's showing sustained force 8/9 in the area of tight isobars.

[Jan]

I've got four candles

[Summer Sun]

Timings for the strongest winds

 

 

The track of the low is further south now compared to 48 hours ago

[rich1974]

not good as in stronger winds or less windy?

[AWD]

A post from Ian Fergusson in the SW regional thread;

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78026-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-031013-15z/?p=2818363

Pretty much what I was trying to allude to earlier.

[scotteboi]

I've got four candles

 

Can I have some 'ose please?

Edited October 27, 2013 by scotteboi

[03jtrickey]

I'm currently in Northern France (Arras) and will be crossing the channel by rail tomorrow. Very much looking forward to seeing the effects of this storm and it looks like I may be well placed to witness some intense wind gusts!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

A post from Ian Fergusson in the SW regional thread;http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78026-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-031013-15z/?p=2818363Pretty much what I was trying to allude to earlier.

I don't understand ...

[Summer Sun]

Video from chief met office forecaster Nick Grahame

 

[A.J]

There have been countless times when models like the GFS/UKMO etc have been closer to the mark than the high resolution models such as the NAE. 

also countless times when it's been the opposite. From what Ian F's posted in the past, the Met Office use several model suites, including a modified NAE model, as well as UKV & MOGREPS, so I'd definitely stick with their forecasts

[Bazray]

I'm with you on that one, will be heading off towards Chesil beach to watch the action at some point. As you have tried to point out, it is possible to watch the might of Mother Nature without being reckless at the same time!Those that venture onto the beach itself however are idotic beyond belief!

The police in Torquay have just released a statement warning to stay away from the harbour and seafront as it could be extremely dangerous.Don't think I can resist it.

[ChezWeather]

The police in Torquay have just released a statement warning to stay away from the harbour and seafront as it could be extremely dangerous.Don't think I can resist it.

Get yourself up onto Berry head!

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

12Z HIRLAM shows a very tight pressure gradiant crossing the UK. I've been having problems using the site all day but managed to grab these.

 

It's showing sustained force 8/9 in the area of tight isobars.

Ok that's not similar to the NAE, it's worse 

I look at the main areas of warning from the metoffice, and frankly I see if these come off again it's the northern half of East Anglia and maybe even Lincolnshire which will come off worst here. Which seems to differ from the metoffice

[coldfingers]

I've got four candles

What good are fork 'andles?

Sorry, couldn't resist. It does look like this storm is still well and truly on despite all the doom-mongers on here. Tomorrow we will be sure.

[Chris K]

There have been countless times when models like the GFS/UKMO etc have been closer to the mark than the high resolution models such as the NAE. 

 

Yes it can be and don't deny that, although I stand by the high resolution charts more then the GFS at close time frames. I wasn't just talking about the NAE either as I know it has its flaws like any model. I was more on about watching it develop on satellite and read updates from the likes of the MetO and other professionals with the extra tools and systems they have. The snippets of info from Ian F today for example...

 

Everyone has their preference though I guess.

 

also countless times when it's been the opposite. From what Ian F's posted in the past, the Met Office use several model suites, including a modified NAE model, as well as UKV & MOGREPS, so I'd definitely stick with their forecasts

 

^This

Edited October 27, 2013 by Chris K

[pip22]

Travel Update: London overground has cancelled all trains until at least 9 o'clock in the morning.

 

Source: Sky News.

Edited October 27, 2013 by pip22