Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

[TrackingfromEssex]

This is fascinating hour by hour stuff.  Interesting to note that the leading edge of the system (is showing a little more rotation now.  Pressure reading continuing to drop at Portleven.

Edited October 27, 2013 by TrackingfromEssex

[bobbydog]

Where has the low gone on the latest surface analyses? http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

 

its still there (if you mean the 996mb centre) the first isobar is now 996mb which means it has deepened slightly

[ancientsolar]

Well.. despite all the crazy chat here.. 80mph already recorded in Wales.http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2013-10-27/80mph-gust-already-recorded-in-wales/

and a tree has given up it's solid ground.http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2013-10-27/high-winds-bring-down-tree-near-aberdare/

[coldfingers]

It's the 'wiggle' out to the west: kinda looks like a bucket. This is the frontal wave that is the very birth of the low pressure that is forecasted to develop into the storm.

Interesting to see it is already at 954 pressure, or have I got that wrong? Just an interested observer so any correction would be good.

[radiohead]

The 09Z run of the UK4 model

 

[J10]

So what time is kick off tonight then i will stay up just to read the other threads.

 

 

Looking at the latest NMM model and you can see the progression of the strongest winds from West to East during the night.

 

Initially the strongest winds for SW England, along the South Coast of England and parts of South Wales. Gusts 70-80mph along the coasts, 50-70mph inland in SW England.

 

NMM winds midnight.JPG

 

Even by 2am, the winds starting to die back for parts of Wales and Western parts of SW England, still breezy here though. Wind gusts of 70-80mph for most of the South Coast of England, with gusts inland up to 60mph south of the M4 corridor, 40-50mph a bit further north.

 

NMM winds 2am.JPG

 

By 4am, areas to the west of a line from Newbury to Bournemouth, should see wind gusts reducing to around 40mph. The worst winds from IOW eastwards along the south coast this also includes Southern parts of East Anglia, gusts still 70-80mph here. However inland areas from Newbury - Bournemouth east covering all of SE England as far north as East Anglia seeing gusts up to 60mph. 

 

NMM winds 4am.JPG

 

By 6am, the only areas with gusts forecast to be above 50mph is forecast to be East Anglia and the far SE corner of England, with 60mph gusts possible in places.

NMM winds 6am.JPG

 

By 8am the strongest winds should have departed the whole of the UK.

 

NMM winds 8am.JPG

 

The above figures are only based on the latest NMM model and may change. But caution is needed later tonight, more especially for Coastal areas east of the Isle of Wight, which are set to see the strongest winds for the longest period of time.

 

A reminder of when things are schedules to happen according to this mornings NMM model.

[Buriedundersnow]

its not going to be as bad as been thought the models are already correcting and will continue to correct.

 

remember the channel low last winter that all were looking forward to in the south only for it to correct at the last minute and only affect the channel islands and northern france.

 

same thing here people

[A.J]

*Amber Warning issued by the Met Office in conjunction with Netweather.tv*

 

 

Issued at - 27 Oct 2013, 13:45
Valid from - 27 Oct 2013, 13:45
Valid to - 28 Oct 2013, 12:00

 

Outbreaks of verbal diarrhoea currently affecting parts of the thread are forecast to rapidly intensify during the forecasting period. Normal members are advised to take great care and the necessary precautions such as reporting all instances of verbal diarrhoea and not be sucked in by it.

 

 

hint hint!

Edited October 27, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[Buzz]

Well.. despite all the crazy chat here.. 80mph already recorded in Wales.http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2013-10-27/80mph-gust-already-recorded-in-wales/

and a tree has given up it's solid ground.http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2013-10-27/high-winds-bring-down-tree-near-aberdare/

 

 

But today's strong winds/strong gusts are nothing to do with the approaching storm, they're basically very blustery showers. The storm is still forming and quite some distance away.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Buzz

[bobbydog]

it appears to have a defined centre now-

 

 

[johnholmes]

Hi all. I'm in a caravan park in Hastings (static caravan). We are due to leave tomorrow at around 12pm.

Some people are leaving today. I really am torn! The children are obviously wanting another night.

Would it be ok to leave at around 9pm tonight for an hour journey to Brighton? As far as I can see, the winds won't hit until screw hours later but I'm struggling to catch up!

Or.. Maybe we can stay! Decisions decisions..

Edit: a few, not screw!

 

you will be okay leaving when you suggest, not a good idea for tomorrow morning though

[coldfingers]

But today's strong winds/strong gusts are nothing to do with the approaching storm, they're basically very blustery showers. The storm is still forming and quite some distance away.

I think most of us in the affected areas are well aware of that, what I see about it though is that if 45-50knot winds are already causing unusual damage to trees what can happen with the higher forecast ones. As has been pointed out many times on this thread, the problem is that the sodden ground and the trees still in full leaf (at least here in the extreme south they are) will all contribute to bringing down trees that wouldn't otherwise have fallen even in very high winds.

Edited October 27, 2013 by coldfingers

[Feathers Mcgraw]

Well I for one am glad of the warnings the Met Office put out,   Being a rural smallholder, I like being given a heads-up to go put straps over the most vunerable chicken houses and move livestock away from areas where there might be falling branches.

 

The early warnings have also given us the chance to discover a  mouse had chewed through the wires of the generator, and my OH unexpectedly had to spend ages mending it. And the time to do a quick service and check the chainsaw is running okay. These warnings gives us a kick up the backside to go an make a few preparations.  Even if it is not as bad as the other storms of recent years, we expect power-outages here.  We get them for nearly every storm anyway, as we are in a very wooded area. So I doubt this one will be an exception.

 

At around 8am not a tree was rustling a single leaf all was dead calm,  Now we have a really brisk breeze and it is getting gusty.. 

[loopydreamer]

But today's strong winds/strong gusts are nothing to do with the approaching storm, they're basically very blustery showers. The storm is still forming and quite some distance away.

 

YESSS!! Thankyou Buzz....  I was just about to post this very same comment!! ... calm down... chill out and drink a beer. That's what i'm doing

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

its not going to be as bad as been thought the models are already correcting and will continue to correct.

 

remember the channel low last winter that all were looking forward to in the south only for it to correct at the last minute and only affect the channel islands and northern france.

 

same thing here people

Remember that all too well, being in Portsmouth at the time, I could see the Channel getting obliterated by a blizzard and just could not make it up to us! It was like    !

[ancientsolar]

Estofex think there could even be "tornado" activity from this storm

[VillagePlank]

Estofex think there could even be "tornado" activity from this storm

 

Yes, 1km wind shear at 20 m/s and low cloud bases could combine to form one or two,

 

Edited October 27, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Summer Sun]

The main storm hasn't arrived yet and the first power cut from a fallen tree has happened

 

More than 1,000 homes without power in Pangbourne, Berkshire after report falling tree brought down power line

[Bobby]

Very windy here too, close to gale force gusts blowing things about in garden. A few panes of glass have been broken on the greenhouse I think, grr.

[toggerob]

The 09Z run of the UK4 model

 

 

Potential squall-line for the Midlands/North West on the convective wrap-around?

[BOMBHEADS]

*Amber Warning issued by the Met Office in conjunction with Netweather.tv*

 

 

Issued at - 27 Oct 2013, 13:45

Valid from - 27 Oct 2013, 13:45

Valid to - 28 Oct 2013, 12:00

 

Outbreaks of verbal diarrhoea currently affecting parts of the thread are forecast to rapidly intensify during the forecasting period. Normal members are advised to take great care and the necessary precautions such as reporting all instances of verbal diarrhoea and not be sucked in by it.

 

 

hint hint!

Sorry, but LOLd lots at this true statement.

 

On topic, Sometimes the channel has a funneling effect, making wind stronger, anyone like to explain to me why this happens? and is that what is happening this time?

[Su Campu]

Just a note for those using the meteocentre hourly analysis charts - the most accurate analyses are every 3 hours (1200, 1500, 1800, etc.) as these include 3-hourly synop, SHIP reports, etc., and therefore give a better picture. Hours outside of these only have some metars and buoy reports.

[WalsallWeather]

I'm thankful for Met Office weather warnings, best for them to be cautious and keep us in the know just incase, rather than not tell us anything and then it turns out being a bad storm.As they, and others such as NetWeather have said all along though, they aren't 100% sure on just how strong/which track it'll take so it's a case of keeping a check. Too many people have read the Daily Mail and got excited over this storm. Moral of the story is: DON'T READ THE DAILY MAIL! :PJust hope we don't have a powercut.. we usually do in storms. Just gutted there won't be thunder and lightening, nothing better than watching the lightening at the front, overlooking the valley with nothing in the way! Always a great watch.

[jam2010]

We have a light fart of a breeze here ha ha. Not expecting anything really here but enjoying reading this forum and will be reading tonight :-) BBC are saying there is already trees down.

[knocker]

It also should be remembered that the METO has a Public Service Duty for shipping and this morning's broadcast mentioned the possibility of violent storm F11 in the channel. Believe me you don't want to be caught in a small or medium size ship in that. I've been there a few times so better safe than sorry so any advanced warning saves lives.