Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

[radiohead]

It looks like there is a ship just north of the developing low reporting 995mb at 1pm. So the low is probably around 994mb now, which seems to be on track with expectations.

[Bobby]

You can see the system approaching from the SW, the first shield of cloud now starting to move over SW parts of the country. Rain, likely heavy should start moving into SW in the late evening.

 

[Alpine glow]

Hi all. I'm in a caravan park in Hastings (static caravan). We are due to leave tomorrow at around 12pm.

Some people are leaving today. I really am torn! The children are obviously wanting another night.

Would it be ok to leave at around 9pm tonight for an hour journey to Brighton? As far as I can see, the winds won't hit until screw hours later but I'm struggling to catch up!

Or.. Maybe we can stay! Decisions decisions..

Edit: a few, not screw!

Edited October 27, 2013 by Alpine glow

[itsnowjoke]

So what time is kick off tonight then i will stay up just to read the other threads.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Oh here we go, the "southern bias" nonsense again...

 

Firstly, the majority of the population live in the south, the SE is very densely populated.

 

Secondly, the south don't get many storms like this, Scotland for example is more prepared for this, and more sparsely populated.

 

Really is pathetic what people throw their toys out of the pram for. Anyway, batten down the hatches, tonight is going to be fun

The central belt of Scotland has a few million people which is hardly sparse.

 

Meanwhile, having been a keen watcher of developing cold water North Atlantic storms for years, this little system which is causing so much panic to many is likely not as bad as it's being made out. 

 

Furthermore, if this chart comes off next Sunday, will Sky be sending a team to western Scotland to see the rollers come crashing in? I think not!

 

 

[Chris.R]

Sky News just annouced they are going for a Live coverage from 6am. It is going to be funny!!

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! honestly. Just get everyone to read the reports in this forum. Lol. 

[knocker]

A gale in late October? (erm, it's gusting to gale force out there today) yet all of the focus has been Monday

People used to just get on with it

 

Well the Penlee lfeboat didn't in 81. It was lost with all hands.

[Chris K]

Ok keep the obs for today coming, as they are likely to be stronger winds today than tomorrow.

 

As for the Met office the poster who said they shouldn't be feeding the circus is correct. Why they so afraid to downgrade the obvious? Think of all those people taking a days of work unnecessary.

 

I do feel they do get too much funding. An old mans club using technology that someone on here could use to do an accurate (as them) forecast. 

 

I find that highly unlikely going by some of the posts in here this morning.

[coldfingers]

Wow!! The dutch coast is stormier than here!! big surprise.

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

PIP, it might be good to remember that high tide is still 4 hours away in Bognor and as it is a Neap tide (to the layman that means it will be much lower than a Spring tide!) what is actually showing on the cam is that the tide is already way above predicted height for here at this time.

Also be aware that Bognor is actually in a shallow bay and currently is sheltered by the Isle of Wight as the winds are WSW, when they turn SW/S then the waves will show better. I know, I live here.

Edited October 27, 2013 by coldfingers

[Summer Sun]

The met office have just tweeted this

 

[tight isobar]

Yes I tend agree with some posts here, IT'S FIRMLY A NOWCAST scenario here and cross model are a tuneing. And but pick point scoring is uncalled, as the event is still unfolding!

[Team Jo]

Hello! Polite reminder that this isn't the 'Met office suck Thread! '

Please keep to topic........

[A.J]

Currently can't see this being anywhere near as bad as what the media are raving on about given current model data available. Very windy yes, extreme, no. We have seen many similar events like this over previous years which have failed to materialise, a few days ago it was looking like a major event by Southern England standards but things have really been watered down. 

 

As ever the weather will do what it wants, taking no prisoners. This thread better not turn into a Meto bashing blood bath, like it has done in the past. 

Don't worry Liam, it won't......plenty of forum team fingers hovering over the delete button

[Kiwi]

BBC weather on BBC 1 a few minutes ago some severe weather tomorrow but not for all, gusts maybe hitting 90mph

 

Very wet overnight in the south

 

 

But once the system pulls away the sun will break through and temperatures will once again hit the mid teens in the south giving a standard autumn day of sunshine and showers

 

Ok, so probably less windy than originally forecast and talk of 87 and cobra meetings seems ott.

But in the south we are still looking at high winds, heavy rain on already saturated ground and lots of trees still in full leaf.

 

Sure, it won't be armageddon but as the Met Office point out I suspect there will be trees down and a fair bit of traffic and power disruption come the Monday morning rush hour.

[nick sussex]

This London bashing and accusations of a southern media basis are becoming very tiresome! yes everyone knows that people further north are a bit more used to strong winds and stormy conditions and this probably would be met with a shrug of the shoulder in the Northern Isles but that's the point! the fact that its a bit more unusual to see the possibility of a very strong storm in the south of course will play into the media and anything that effects a largely populated area including the capital is always going to warrant more headlines.

The same would happen if it was Paris, Rome etc, its just more newsworthy. And as for this anti Met Office sentiment that's seriously beginning to get on my wick, what do people expect the UKMO to do, just sit there and say nothing in case it gets downgraded at the last minute, they can only go on the models and data they have and until very recently that showed a very worrying storm, the last time I looked their head forecaster wasn't Mystic Meg so what would people have preferred they do?

Edited October 27, 2013 by nick sussex

[Mapantz]

I'm certainly happy to report as much as i can for as long as i can, any slight track changes still leave me in a great place (if you like severe weather of course) 

[Gary_R_Walker]

Hi all. I'm in a caravan park in Hastings (static caravan). We are due to leave tomorrow at around 12pm.

Some people are leaving today. I really am torn! The children are obviously wanting another night.

Would it be ok to leave at around 9pm tonight for an hour journey to Brighton? As far as I can see, the winds won't hit until screw hours later but I'm struggling to catch up!

Or.. Maybe we can stay! Decisions decisions..

Edit: a few, not screw!

I liked it better before the edit.

[Wivenswold]

If no-one objects within the next 15 mins I'll start a "St. Jude's Storm data and forecasting" thread as all the idle chat, forecast requests and arguing in this thread is bloating it out. Not good when you want firm updates on a mobile phone. 

 

Perhaps we could kick-off a "storm reports" one a bit later for nowcasting too. Leave those who want to chat about it to do so in peace.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Wivenswold

[Zephyr]

Where has the low gone on the latest surface analyses? http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

[Skullzrulerz]

If no-one objects within the next 15 mins I'll start a "St. Jude's Storm data and forecasting" thread as all the idle chat, forecast requests and arguing in this thread is bloating it out. Not good when you want firm updates on a mobile phone. 

Good idea The main thing i am seeing is met office this or that.

[VillagePlank]

Where has the low gone on the latest surface analyses? http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

 

It's the 'wiggle' out to the west: kinda looks like a bucket. This is the frontal wave that is the very birth of the low pressure that is forecasted to develop into the storm.

[Zephyr]

It's the 'wiggle' out to the west: kinda looks like a bucket. This is the frontal wave that is the very birth of the low pressure that is forecasted to develop into the storm.

 

Thanks for that I was starting to wonder, I'm still in the learning stage!

[BurntFishTrousers]

[Snow and storms]

Why I think this storm will take a more northerly track as forecasted yesterday:

 

The storm is carried by the jet stream which has been forecasted as slightly weaker than what was expected yesterday.

It deepens rapidly (explosive cyclogenisis) when exiting the left side of the jet. A weaker jet will mean the storm will be

carried slightly slower, and be rotated slightly slower.

 

However what I think is not being taken into consideration is that the slower the storm rides, the earlier it will exit the jet

and begin it's rapid deepening. So by the time it is sitting bang over the UK (if it does) it will have had more time to deepen

and will travel in more of a curved northerly direction.

 

Yesterday the deepest pressure the storm made was sitting over the north sea as it exited the UK. I believe this will now be

transfered over the top of us. The slower rotation of the storm will mean it is slightly less intense but the exiting of the jet stream

earlier will probably even this effect out.

 

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This is a rough track I believe the storm will take, if anything maybe slightly more curved and northerly.

This is my own personal prediction and expect there is plenty of more experianced people out there that could prove this wrong.

[AWD]

Remember the Met Office have a lot of high res, short term models that we don't have access too.

Arpege, EURO4, MOGREPS, UKV, EUROSIP etc.

If all these models are showing something alternative to what we have seen this morning then it sort of dilutes the signal from the few models we have access too, such as GFS, UKMO, ECM, NAE etc.

That's why their forecast might differ slightly from what we would expect. And in this situation, I would take a Met Office forecast over most other web/forum based forecasts, if only for precautionary measures if nothing else.