Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

[Lee Jones]

Why are people posting obs now of something that has nothing to do with tomorrow's (non) event?

 

Government meeting

 

This country makes me ill sometimes.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Look at the Dutch making the best out of these surfing conditions! A good cam to keep an eye on too, as they look like they may well see the worst of this storm.

http://www.scheveningenlive.nl/surf-webcam/

[bobbydog]

any chance we could wait and see what actually happens before tearing the MetO to pieces?

[Mokidugway]

Just been out with the dog on country lanes, wind must be gusting 40 to 50 mph, but realy warm in the sun in sheltered bits .

[Team Jo]

Be cool to keep this on topic and not a Met office bash / media bash / south vs north bash eh? Over something that hasn't actually happened yet.....

The observations being posted are handy; please keep them coming! And please let's keep it friendly!

[pip22]

Sky News just annouced they are going for a Live coverage from 6am. It is going to be funny!!

[jessandjon]

According to wonderground pressure is 998> what does that mean?

[Jayne aka Pembsgal]

Jayne if you click the red banner off the website for the warning, at the bottom are all the individual area warnings - and they will be updated through the day

Thank you Jo

[Matty M]

There seem to be a considerable number of contributors in here who are waiting to jump on the Met' Office if the forthcoming storm fails to live up to expectations. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this is forecasting in the truest sense of the word; ie deciding what this feature will do when, or if, it interacts with the jet stream from a starting point of almost nothing.

It's a world away from having a developed area of low pressure moving across the Atlantic to bring stormy weather when the biggest issue is the timing of its' arrival.

Before anyone trots out the arguments about 'the biggest super computers in the world' and 'the amount of funding they get' let's remember how vast and complex the atmosphere is; the super computers are at the limit of their capabilities in situations like this and a  degree of uncertainty as to the eventual outcome will never be eliminated.

This system still has the potential to be damaging (as a quick look at the fax charts will illustrate), as it's projected to deepen from around 977 mb in the south west of the country to below 966 mb by the time it's over the North Sea 12 hours later. Any system which is still deepening and is moving at about 50 mph is likely to invoke weather warnings but don't forget that the warnings are for what could potentially happen given the best knowledge of the atmosphere at the time they're issued, rather than a statement of fact.  

I agree but what i don't agree with is that the MetO are not updating their assessment to reflect the latest output. Their warnings were appropriate a few days ago when the system looked very threatening. But this has changed and they should let people know this instead of continuing to feed this circus.

[TonyH]

According to the BBC reporter it has already arrived in South Wales...sunny and windy here!

In fact tonight will be a lot calmer across Wales and the Midlands than is this afternoon, as the low centre tracks across.

[coldfingers]

Makes me laugh how Southerly biased the media really are, shameful. They think the only place in the UK is London....

Actually it looks to me as if they are focusing on what is likely to be the worst hit area, The South! Gusts here on the coast are already at 47knots/55mph with the Gale warnings for Violent Storm 11 later and perhaps Force 12 in the Channel. Yep looks to me already as if they are right on this one and if they are OTT then I am glad as it is warning me half a mile from the beach to be very careful tonight and tomorrow.

[pip22]

Look at the Dutch making the best out of these surfing conditions! A good cam to keep an eye on too, as they look like they may well see the worst of this storm.

http://www.scheveningenlive.nl/surf-webcam/

Wow!! The dutch coast is stormier than here!! big surprise.

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

Edited October 27, 2013 by pip22

[Buriedundersnow]

Makes me laugh how Southerly biased the media really are, shameful. They think the only place in the UK is London....

 

I agree with this the way they have been saying worst storm to hit britain since 87 well obviously they forgot aw about b-a-w-b-a-g up here and the fact we are one of the windiest places in the world and get these kind of winds nearly every year or are we not part of britain anymore because there hasn't been any vote yet so technically we are still part of the bigger picture

[Matty M]

Sky News just annouced they are going for a Live coverage from 6am. It is going to be funny!!

They will still get some good footage along the south coast with a big swell and very high winds. So could look good.

[VillagePlank]

Why are people posting obs now of something that has nothing to do with tomorrow's (non) event?

 

The obs are for the shortwave that will develop into the low pressure.

[Matty M]

According to the BBC reporter it has already arrived in South Wales...sunny and windy here!

In fact tonight will be a lot calmer across Wales and the Midlands than is this afternoon, as the low centre tracks across.

I hope they don't try and cast off today's system as tomorrow's forecast 'storm'!

[BristolBaggie]

It's getting really silly in here mods and very confusing for new members. Some people are writing this storm off based on a couple of runs. Until the met office downgrade this storm on their website we should all take notice of the warnings issued.

[clangers23]

It's less about the metO doing anything wrong but rather the media building up what looks like a typical autumn storm into something akin to a cat 5 hurricane. People need to be warned in advance and take sensible measures particularly with their rush hour journeys tomorrow but if we follow the media we should all be digging bunkers in our gardens at the moment.

 

I'm just out of the firing line but will undoubtedly receive a typical dumping of the wet stuff.

[Mapantz]

No quarrels from me about the MetOffice, they've done everything right. If it had gone the other way, they would have been slaughtered, so they can't ever win with some people unfortunately.

There's still plenty of potential anyway. 

[Nick L]

Oh here we go, the "southern bias" nonsense again...

 

Firstly, the majority of the population live in the south, the SE is very densely populated.

 

Secondly, the south don't get many storms like this, Scotland for example is more prepared for this, and more sparsely populated.

 

Really is pathetic what people throw their toys out of the pram for. Anyway, batten down the hatches, tonight is going to be fun

[knocker]

I agree but what i don't agree with is that the MetO are not updating their assessment to reflect the latest output. Their warnings were appropriate a few days ago when the system looked very threatening. But this has changed and they should let people know this instead of continuing to feed this circus.

 

A few days ago the system didn't exist which is why it's so difficult to forecast but the METO have done a good job so far.

[Nick L]

It's less about the metO doing anything wrong but rather the media building up what looks like a typical autumn storm into something akin to a cat 5 hurricane. People need to be warned in advance and take sensible measures particularly with their rush hour journeys tomorrow but if we follow the media we should all be digging bunkers in our gardens at the moment.

 

I'm just out of the firing line but will undoubtedly receive a typical dumping of the wet stuff.

 

This is not a "typical Autumn storm".

 

And the Met Office have done brilliantly so far. Handled it very well amidst tabloid hype.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Nick L

[stevofunnelcl]

I am afraid folks, the media have lost the run of themselves with this. And an emergency Cobra meeting? Seriously? Everybody needs to stand back and look at the charts as they are, including the MetO, how is this 1 level below the most extreme warning on the scale?

 

This could have been an exceptional event, but all the information currently presented indicates it will be very windy but nothing exceptional and the media circus surrounding the event will badly damage the reputation of meteorological organisations after the low moves through.

Back in history... and severe storms have affected the Uk, going right back through history

No Cobra meetings... No media hysteria

I do wonder sometimes if this country has maybe gone health & safety mad !!

A gale in late October? (erm, it's gusting to gale force out there today) yet all of the focus has been Monday

People used to just get on with it

We can bounce back quickly from terrorist attacks... but i bit of wind & rain seems to deliver a K.O punch

 

Having said that, if the depression is deepening faster than indicated, could be a sign, it may swing onto a more northerly track

[Chris.R]

More overhyped crap. Some excellent suggestions in there but still mostly overhyped crap.

 

"

Batten down the hatches: Hurtling across the Atlantic, the worst storm since 1987 is heading straight for Britain... so could we see a repeat of those devastating scenes?

• [*]

Furious storm will also bring heavy rain with it with potential for floods [*]Forecasters warn houses face damage, trees falling and power cuts [*]Wales and South West England will be hit first early on Monday morning [*]In some coastal areas in the south winds could reach gusts of up to 90mph [*]When storm hits drivers are warned against all but essential travel [*]Firefighters have issued a safety warning to Londoners  [*]Police have warned people to only dial 999 in a genuine emergency

"

 

"Britain is set to be battered by the worst weather since the Great Storm of 1987, according to forecasters.

Winds of up to 90mph and a deluge of driving rain are expected to hit the south coast on Monday, bringing chaos and mayhem.

A weather front is gathering strength in the Gulf of Mexico and heading across the Atlantic. It is expected to pick up pace before hitting the South West and sweeping across the South.

The Met Office is tonight warning of a 'significant storm' with 'exceptionally strong winds'."

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2474792/UK-weather-Worst-storms-1987-winds-80mph-predicted.html

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather on BBC 1 a few minutes ago some severe weather tomorrow but not for all, gusts maybe hitting 90mph

 

Very wet overnight in the south

 

 

But once the system pulls away the sun will break through and temperatures will once again hit the mid teens in the south giving a standard autumn day of sunshine and showers

 

Edited October 27, 2013 by Summer Sun