Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

[VillagePlank]

Low pressure to north is lower than forecast,

 

 

The question is, does this make a swing north more likely for St Jude?

Edited October 27, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Matty M]

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

 

For what it's worth, the coming depression is currently around 4mb deeper that what had been modeled for this time from the 06z GFS run.  It'll be interesting (perhaps) to check this again around 6pm - where it's meant to be off the SW UK at around 990MB (according to the GFS)

 

Edit - Sn0wman got there first! :-)

Pretty much as the 6z NAE projected

 

[Hammer]

Those posting observations, that is great, be good if another thread could be setup with purely this type of thing, might allow us to spot how things are developing compared to how models saw things. 4mb seems minimal but could be the difference in 20 mile Northern track of low.

[johnholmes]

Low pressure to north is lower than forecast,

 

model.gifreality.gif

 

The question is, does this make a swing north more likely for St Jude?

 

It will have little if any effect as the major depression will likely become the one starting to deepen now in the Atlantic.

[Matty M]

Low pressure to north is lower than forecast,

 

model.gifreality.gif

 

The question is, does this make a swing north more likely for St Jude?

How is it deeper than forecast? it's pretty much exactly the same.

[sn0wman]

re how much it has deepened and the position

take care as it is a computer generated chart and you are best using it to track the overall movement and depths rather than from hour to hour. At times you may need to make some kind of subjective adjustments to what a particular hour shows.

Thanks for the advice. I've looked at the chart from 4 hours ago and the pressure was calculated at 1004mb then. Still equates to a steady deepening rate of 2mb per hour (down 8mb in 4 hours) so it may not be too far off the mark. 

[Carl]

Only if its high enough that is.

 

Those next to us are 350ft high...

 

..In some conditions the wind appears to blow water upwards like a reverse waterfall!

 

http://losingit.me.uk/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/IMG_7412.jpg

[VillagePlank]

How is it deeper than forecast? it's pretty much exactly the same.

 

Oops my mistake - read the central pressure rather than the isobar

Edited October 27, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Chris.R]

Those posting observations, that is great, be good if another thread could be setup with purely this type of thing, might allow us to spot how things are developing compared to how models saw things. 4mb seems minimal but could be the difference in 20 mile Northern track of low.

 

 

I second this thought. 

[The PIT]

Errrmmmm 

http://www.eastcoast.co.uk/travel-information/live-travel-information/

[pip22]

Those next to us are 350ft high...

 

..In some conditions the wind appears to blow water upwards like a reverse waterfall!

 

http://losingit.me.uk/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/IMG_7412.jpg

I went down a cliff last year just by walking down. It was near Whitby in Yorkshire. There is some high cliffs there but some parts are shallow enough to safety walk down without danger.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Low pressure to north is lower than forecast,

 

model.gifreality.gif

 

The question is, does this make a swing north more likely for St Jude?

In my opinion and I'd say logically YES. As always, we cannot jump to conclusions just yet, but the signs are definitely there for a more Northerly shift.

[Chris.R]

Errrmmmm 

Amended East Coast timetable on Monday 28 October

Start date

26/10/2013 20:28:00

Route(s) affected

 

Between London Kings Cross and Leeds / Hull / Scotland

Description

The Met Office is forecasting severe weather affecting much of the East Coast route on Monday 28 October.

Taking their advice into account and in conjunction with Network Rail, East Coast will be working to an amended timetable on Monday 28 October.

The timetable gives added time into schedules due to speed restrictions being imposed which are implemented for safety reasons. Your journey will take longer than normal.

This timetable is available here

Road conditions are also expected to be hazardous, so please allow extra time to reach the station and allow extra time for connecting trains.

Twitter hashtag: #UKstorm

"

[Liam J]

Gusts topping 50mph here with mean speeds in excess of 30mph. Trees being stripped big time.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Liam J

[Matty M]

I am afraid folks, the media have lost the run of themselves with this. And an emergency Cobra meeting? Seriously? Everybody needs to stand back and look at the charts as they are, including the MetO, how is this 1 level below the most extreme warning on the scale?

 

This could have been an exceptional event, but all the information currently presented indicates it will be very windy but nothing exceptional and the media circus surrounding the event will badly damage the reputation of meteorological organisations after the low moves through.

[The PIT]

Is it me and if the models are correct is the met office going for a potential huge fall tomorrow morning. The media is really all over this at the moment. 

[Bobby]

I bet the Met Office forecasters are fumbling for the Prozac right now with all the amber warnings and big storm forecasts, fearing the inevitable irrational backlash about how useless they are if all goes pear shaped.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Bobby

[itsnowjoke]

winds really picked up here shaking those remaing leaves off.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Gusts topping 50mph here with mean speeds in excess of 30mph. Trees being stripped big time.

Makes me laugh how Southerly biased the media really are, shameful. They think the only place in the UK is London....

[milkmaid]

i've just looked at our pressure ,it's standing at 969.7 at the moment ,interesting watching this thread,strange watching it from a distance 

Edited October 27, 2013 by milkmaid

[The PIT]

Well if they update quickly enough they are covered. If the modelling stays the same and it's mainly a coastal fish spinner that clips the south east I would hope they back track quickly and adjust the warnings. We don't want another storm that never was.

I bet the Met Office forecasters are fumbling for the Prozac right now with all the amber warnings and big storm forecasts, fearing the inevitable irrational backlash about how useless they are if all goes pear shaped.

Edited October 27, 2013 by The PIT

[Terminal Moraine]

There seem to be a considerable number of contributors in here who are waiting to jump on the Met' Office if the forthcoming storm fails to live up to expectations. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this is forecasting in the truest sense of the word; ie deciding what this feature will do when, or if, it interacts with the jet stream from a starting point of almost nothing.

It's a world away from having a developed area of low pressure moving across the Atlantic to bring stormy weather when the biggest issue is the timing of its' arrival.

Before anyone trots out the arguments about 'the biggest super computers in the world' and 'the amount of funding they get' let's remember how vast and complex the atmosphere is; the super computers are at the limit of their capabilities in situations like this and a  degree of uncertainty as to the eventual outcome will never be eliminated.

This system still has the potential to be damaging (as a quick look at the fax charts will illustrate), as it's projected to deepen from around 977 mb in the south west of the country to below 966 mb by the time it's over the North Sea 12 hours later. Any system which is still deepening and is moving at about 50 mph is likely to invoke weather warnings but don't forget that the warnings are for what could potentially happen given the best knowledge of the atmosphere at the time they're issued, rather than a statement of fact.  

[itsnowjoke]

I bet the Met Office forecasters are fumbling for the Prozac right now with all the amber warnings and big storm forecasts, fearing the inevitable irrational backlash about how useless they are if all goes pear shaped.

The Forcast will be Cloudy with a chance of meatballs lol...just a film im watching with the kids.

[Liam J]

Currently can't see this being anywhere near as bad as what the media are raving on about given current model data available. Very windy yes, extreme, no. We have seen many similar events like this over previous years which have failed to materialise, a few days ago it was looking like a major event by Southern England standards but things have really been watered down. 

 

As ever the weather will do what it wants, taking no prisoners. This thread better not turn into a Meto bashing blood bath, like it has done in the past. 

Edited October 27, 2013 by Liam J

[knocker]

All this balderdash about the METO again. Having just heard their forecast on R4 of 70-80 mph winds along the south coast and in s. Wales they haven't been far out from two days ago on the speed and the track of Jude. Amateurs always know best of course.