Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

[Decee]

It'a already pretty windy here.

Even if it looks like it wont be as severe as it looked like at this time yesterday, in UK terms, it will still be a storm when it arrives overnight.

I live just up the road from you, I live in the new housing development next to the airfield. The wind has certainly picked up over the last 12 hours and is getting stronger and stronger. The openness of the airfield and the housing development makes wind round here always worse. I have loads of tall trees around my property so I am slightly worried.

 

lol - yesterday i was concerned, today i'm a bit more relaxed. While it will be extremely gusty, current projections have really taken a dip on speeds, most of the folks will be asleep during it and will probably not even hear anything. I'm still heading out of course,and safety in mind.

Personally I think its wise that people should stay awake during a storm so that they can react to any possible situations. Being asleep in a potentially volatile storm would be foolish in my opinion.

[Skullzrulerz]

Winds are getting stronger where i live,rain is starting too. 

[Raidan]

Already windy enough here to damage the garden fence and have me going to get the garden chairs from the front garden!

[Bristawl Si]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather7m

W COUNTRY #ukstorm UPDATE 1120GMT: As previously billed. Expect strongest winds 0200-0600 Mon. Poss gusts 70-75+mph (incl. #Bristol area).

That's storm force gusts in UK terms and severe enough, for sure.

[Mapantz]

Personally I think its wise that people should stay awake during a storm so that they can react to any possible situations. Being asleep in a potentially volatile storm would be foolish in my opinion.

If it was being progged more severe than it is, i might agree, but at the moment, i don't.I don't know exactly know how many died during the 87 storm but i don't think there were many that died in their sleep? There's being safe, then there's bordering on being over the top, and not going to sleep tonight because of some strong winds, constitutes being over the top. 

Edited October 27, 2013 by Mapantz

[microclimate]

If it was being progged more severe than it is, i might agree, but at the moment, i don't.I don't know exactly know how many died during the 87 storm but i don't think there were many that died in their sleep? There's being safe, then there's bordering on being over the top, and not going to sleep tonight because of some strong winds, constitutes being over the top.

During the '87 storm a chimney crashed through the roof of property not far from here and nearly killed the occupants, luckily although they were trapped and badly injured they did survive.

[NickR]

During the '87 storm a chimney crashed through the roof of property not far from here and nearly killed the occupants, luckily although they were trapped and badly injured they did survive.

 

If you're that worried you could sleep downstairs.

[Gord]

I was in Lowestoft in Suffolk during the 1987 storm. I remember not sleeping because of the storm!

 

Wouldn't mind seeing this downgraded to be honest for very selfish reasons. Going on holiday using the train on Tuesday...and I don't know if 24 hours would be enough for the train companies to clean up and get running again after any damage.

[pip22]

Watch sky news now!! Michael Fish is on!!

[tinybill]

I was in Lowestoft in Suffolk during the 1987 storm. I remember not sleeping because of the storm!

 

Wouldn't mind seeing this downgraded to be honest for very selfish reasons. Going on holiday using the train on Tuesday...and I don't know if 24 hours would be enough for the train companies to clean up and get running again after any damage.

not  to worry  you  reading some were  are area  could go red  on the  next  update

[gottolovethisweather]

I believe there is some talk of a less threatening storm now, so I've just posted my views on the impending storm in my regional. Should one want to read it, there is a link to it below.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78026-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-031013-15z/?p=2817651

Edited October 27, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Sean19]

Seems like the Metoffice are being very hesitant to update their warnings. Considering they said they would do this this morning they still haven't.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Cameron has held an emergency meeting with government departments over the storm.. Better late than never I guess..

[Summer Sun]

Latest warning from the met for the winds only valid till mid day Monday now and it remains at amber with the same areas as before under the amber warning

 

Issued at: 1136 on Sun 27 Oct 2013

 

Valid from: 0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

 

Valid to: 1200 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

 

A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across England and Wales early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding, while the winds will lead to some very large waves around our coasts. There remains slight uncertainty in the timing, intensity and track of the low as well as the northern limit of the strongest winds. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies.

 

The public should also consider adjusting travel plans.

 

This warning has been updated to bring forward the end time.

 

The public are advised to monitor the website for possible further updates.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A developing storm is expected to reach the UK later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, across England and Wales during Monday, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. We are expecting gusts of 60-70 mph widely and locally over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in the southwesterly winds ahead of the low centre and west to northwesterly winds behind it. 20 to 40 mm of rain may fall within 6 to 9 hours, leading to localised flooding, especially where drainage is impeded by wind-blown debris.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400&regionName=uk

Edited October 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Dan the Man]

My local TAF:

 

EGGW 271100Z 2712/2812 23020KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO 2712/2717 24025G35KT 7000 SHRA BECMG 2720/2723 19015KT 5000 RA TEMPO 2723/2803 3000 +RA BKN007 BECMG 2800/2802 21020G30KT BECMG 2802/2804 21027G40KT 9999 NSW PROB40 TEMPO 2803/2805 21033G50KT BECMG 2805/2807 24033G50KT PROB40 TEMPO 2806/2808 24038G60KT 6000 SHRA BECMG 2807/2810 24020G30KT PROB30 TEMPO 2807/2812 7000 SHRA

[Dorset Weather]

It has now.

Issued at - 27 Oct 2013, 11:36

Valid from - 28 Oct 2013, 00:05

Valid to - 28 Oct 2013, 12:00

A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across England and Wales early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding, while the winds will lead to some very large waves around our coasts.

There remains slight uncertainty in the timing, intensity and track of the low as well as the northern limit of the strongest winds. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies. The public should also consider adjusting travel plans.

This warning has been updated to bring forward the end time.

Oooops Summer Sun beat me to it.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Dorset Weather

[Fred Sykes]

Well from what Michael Fish just said on sky news, they haven't nailed the track of the storm and it could push further north

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Sorry to go a bit OT, but does anyone know what wind speed is needed to ground flights?

 

My old man is flying out to Germany tomorrow morning at 7:55am from Stansted Airport so I'm curious 

Edited October 27, 2013 by Essex Easterly.

[Andy Pepler]

who needs tv when you have the best kind of drama ..mother nature drama..little windy in westwiltshire at the moment ..feeling a little cooler..

[microclimate]

If you're that worried you could sleep downstairs.

Not quite the point of my comment but thank you for your words of helpful advice! Still blowing a hoolie here, has been all night, at least it's given me a chance to see what is likely to take off in the garden and cause damage in the daylight and 'batten down the hatches'.

[J10]

Looking at the latest NMM model and you can see the progression of the strongest winds from West to East during the night.

 

Initially the strongest winds for SW England, along the South Coast of England and parts of South Wales. Gusts 70-80mph along the coasts, 50-70mph inland in SW England.

 

 

Even by 2am, the winds starting to die back for parts of Wales and Western parts of SW England, still breezy here though. Wind gusts of 70-80mph for most of the South Coast of England, with gusts inland up to 60mph south of the M4 corridor, 40-50mph a bit further north.

 

 

By 4am, areas to the west of a line from Newbury to Bournemouth, should see wind gusts reducing to around 40mph. The worst winds from IOW eastwards along the south coast this also includes Southern parts of East Anglia, gusts still 70-80mph here. However inland areas from Newbury - Bournemouth east covering all of SE England as far north as East Anglia seeing gusts up to 60mph. 

 

 

By 6am, the only areas with gusts forecast to be above 50mph is forecast to be East Anglia and the far SE corner of England, with 60mph gusts possible in places.

 

By 8am the strongest winds should have departed the whole of the UK.

 

 

The above figures are only based on the latest NMM model and may change. But caution is needed later tonight, more especially for Coastal areas east of the Isle of Wight, which are set to see the strongest winds for the longest period of time.

Edited October 27, 2013 by J10

[radiohead]

From what I can see the only change in the warning update is 60-70 gusts widely instead of 60-80.

[The Northern Ramper]

It has now.Issued at - 27 Oct 2013, 11:36Valid from - 28 Oct 2013, 00:05Valid to - 28 Oct 2013, 12:00A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across England and Wales early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding, while the winds will lead to some very large waves around our coasts.There remains slight uncertainty in the timing, intensity and track of the low as well as the northern limit of the strongest winds. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies. The public should also consider adjusting travel plans.This warning has been updated to bring forward the end time.Oooops Summer Sun beat me to it.

Summer Sun beat you too it because he has been sat refreshing the page for 30 mins.

[Summer Sun]

Right warnings fully updated so here's what we have now

 

Amber wind warning

 

Wales, West and East Midlands, London and South east, south west England, East of England

 

All other areas not listed above have no wind warnings at all with the yellow warnings removed

 

Rain warnings

 

North east and west England, Yorkshire & Humber, West and East Midlands, south west England, Wales

 

All other areas not listed above have no rain warnings

Edited October 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[radiohead]

63+ knot gusts are more restricted on the 0Z ECM compared to yesterdays model. Still quite windy for parts.

 

Edited October 27, 2013 by radiohead