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Coast

Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

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New part to the continuing discussion about a possible severe storm tonight into tomorrow.

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I posted this at end of previous thread

 

IF the storm is majorly downgraded - it does make you wonder the point of releasing warnings so far out.  I mean what exactly takes 4 days to "prepare" for ?.  Would the morning before - ie 24 hours before not be enough ? its not like we are in the US where a major hurricane advances and people need time to board up houses etc.

 

No criticism on models etc - these are complex systems to model

 

Sure - emergency services and council a further heads-up - but general public ?

 

I'm also not "hope-casting" this storm either as I've a skip full of half our house we cleared out yesterday - so would prefer no winds at all !!

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http://eumetrain.org/eport/euro_06.php?width=1360&height=768&date=2013102706&region=euro

 

Tick MSLP on the bottom left, then tick IR 10.8 in the top right. This overlays the ECM chart over the real satellite image. Then toggle the Pseudo IR option on the right to show what the model thought it would look like at that time. That way you can compare and contrast reality with model to see if there are changes. Problem is it only updates every 6 hours. It's using the 6am frame now though so fairly recent.

Nice Link and thank you for the info, that's a really cool tool !!

 

Clear to see from following your instructions that this system is already some 50 miles further south and East than what the ECM had it at for 6am. Suggesting that it's moving a little quicker and a little further South STILL, so on that evidence I am expecting further ''down grades'' as the day progresses. 

 

This COULD miss the UK entirely in terms of a wind event is concerned anyway. 

 

As always time will tell, but I have that page bookmarked for later and thanks again for the link and the instructions. 

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Posted this in the last thread. If anyone wants to compare model to reality :

 

http://eumetrain.org/eport/euro_06.php?width=1360&height=768&date=2013102706&region=euro

 

Tick MSLP on the bottom left, then tick IR 10.8 in the top right. This overlays the ECM chart over the real satellite image. Then toggle the Pseudo IR option on the right to show what the model thought it would look like at that time. That way you can compare and contrast reality with model to see if there are changes. Problem is it only updates every 6 hours. It's using the 6am frame at the moment.

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Latest from ESTOFEX:

 

post-6667-0-00570400-1382862092_thumb.pn

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 27 Oct 2013 06:00 to Mon 28 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 27 Oct 2013 05:14
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
 
A level 1 was issued for western France and southern UK for severe convective gust and tornado chances after midnight.
 
SYNOPSIS
 
A large depression centered west of Scotland has transported a broad plume of relatively warm low level air deep into Europe. A sharp shortwave trough dramatically visible in IPV fields is racing from western France to eastern Poland during the period. Together with a northwesterly jet axis left exit region, it forces rising air with steepening lapse rates between central France and the Netherlands in the morning, which shifts into Germany during the afternoon and Czechia/Poland in the evening. Thedynamic tropopause(PV)/jet axis intersection region moves just north of the Alps. There is a strong wind field with a corridor over southern Germany with >30 m/s winds in the lowest kilometers. 
Late in the night, a side disturbance of the main low arrives in the English Channel region with signs of rapid cyclogenesis en-route to Denmark, producing gale conditions on Monday.
 
DISCUSSION
 
...western France, southern UK...
 
This region will be affected by two disturbances in 24 hours. At 06Z, unstable air under the influence of the shortwave trough is present as well as 25 m/s mean winds in the low levels, and some 20 m/s 0-1 km shear. Mesoscale convective development is not yet expected to begin, but these conditions combined with low LCL heights can lead to tornadoes, aside from severe wind gusts.
After 00/03Z, the cold front of the second low comes in. It seems to become somewhat convectively active, likely as a forced convective line (there is little CAPE and EL at only -15°), this time with 30-40 m/s mean winds in the low levels over NW France capable of producing damaging gusts at the ground. The front bends back over the southern UK with less strong wind field but enhanced shear and instability sufficient for a tornado or two. The 00Z GFS run predicts the low to take a much more northerly and faster course with more stable conditions than the 18Z run.

 

 
 

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I posted this at end of previous thread

IF the storm is majorly downgraded - it does make you wonder the point of releasing warnings so far out. I mean what exactly takes 4 days to "prepare" for ?. Would the morning before - ie 24 hours before not be enough ? its not like we are in the US where a major hurricane advances and people need time to board up houses etc.

No criticism on models etc - these are complex systems to model

Sure - emergency services and council a further heads-up - but general public ?

I'm also not "hope-casting" this storm either as I've a skip full of half our house we cleared out yesterday - so would prefer no winds at all !!

IF the storm is majorly downgraded - it does make you wonder the point of releasing warnings so far out

I mean what exactly takes 4 days to "prepare" for ?

would the morning before - ie 24 hours before not be enough ? its not like we are in the US where a major hurricane advances and people need time to board up houses etc

no criticism on models etc - these are complex systems to model

Warnings have been issued in the past with 24 hours prior to a wind event like this, and we still see fatalities due to trees being uprooted and falling onto motorists, and structural damage related fatalities. I don't think you will ever prevent these things from happening, but I would say it's about increasing overall awareness on a national level. You're much more likely to make a larger % of the general public aware of the risk with 4 days of national media coverage than you are with 1 day.

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you're probably right - but have to consider if too many extreme headlines and warnings (I mean this has made front page/internet front page news) and non events - people will just totally ignore anyway

Edited by Buckster

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Morning all Just a reminder for those too young to remember 1987 or think it was just very windy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Umow5DSrP6E Hence why a 'downgrade' (whatever that means in reality rather than on the models) won't disappoint some...... AS

I do not like professional forecasters, media etc when they start dabbling in speculation that this weather event or season could be the best, worst etc since XXXX before it has happened. Too often people who do this end up with eggs on their faces.

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When I wake up sufficiently I will do the usual comparison at the same times on the Fax chart then we should be able to see what changes there have been in the past 12 hours.

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Latest GFS from Lightning Wizard with applicable charts:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Looks just as bad along the South coast as it has on previous days runs. Maybe more will escape the wilder gusts, but I'm still concerned for my location and the South coast generally:

 

Posted Image

 

115 km/hr is still quite enough thank you!

 

Posted Image

Edited by Coast

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thanks Coast - still interesting charts

 

weather certainly keeps us on our toes :)  feel for those in the meto today - going to be a difficult one for them to call

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I posted this at end of previous thread

 

IF the storm is majorly downgraded - it does make you wonder the point of releasing warnings so far out.  I mean what exactly takes 4 days to "prepare" for ?.  Would the morning before - ie 24 hours before not be enough ? its not like we are in the US where a major hurricane advances and people need time to board up houses etc.

 

No criticism on models etc - these are complex systems to model

 

Sure - emergency services and council a further heads-up - but general public ?

 

I'm also not "hope-casting" this storm either as I've a skip full of half our house we cleared out yesterday - so would prefer no winds at all !!

It's happening over the weekend.  A lot of businesses would not have been able to prepare if the warnings had gone out on Saturday morning.

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From the look of the 06Z NAE precip chart at 30 hours it looks like this run will have a less intense low on a similar but slightly further south track, thats if the rainfall is anything to go by.

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Unless it's a downgrade bordering on a U turn, you folks down south are still going to get some nasty conditions over the next 24-36 hours and the authorities are right to make people aware.

Up here it's probably rain, rather than severe gales which will be the concern although it may get a bit stormy as the system clears to the east.

Just a though, we're hearing a lot of comparisons made with 1987 but what was the benchmark for these sort of events before October 1987.

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thanks Coast - still interesting chartsweather certainly keeps us on our toes :) feel for those in the meto today - going to be a difficult one for them to call

The key issue is how models are trending to reduction in upstream jet. This has been critical component of explosive deepening. NAE and EURO4 picked up on this possibility yesterday AM and importantly, latest UKMO-GM also less developmental. So next assessment of 06z NAE v important.

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Latest GFS from Lightning Wizard with applicable charts:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Looks just as bad along the South coast as it has on previous days runs. Maybe more will escape the wilder gusts, but I'm still concerned for my location and the South coast generally:

 

Posted Image

 

115 km/hr is still quite enough thank you!

 

Posted Image

coast  will country file weather  2 nite be the  best one  to go by

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thanks Coast - still interesting charts

 

weather certainly keeps us on our toes Posted Image  feel for those in the meto today - going to be a difficult one for them to call

 

I guess people are calling 'downgrade' because the latest info points to it affecting less of the Country than in previous runs. For us down here it has been consistent with speeds and severity for some time, it's just the timing that has changed back and forward.

 

I'm not calling 1987 down here (I remember that too well) but I am saying still potent along The Channel coast and maybe 40 miles inland, with those 80 mph gusts still a possibility in exposed areas. Nothing has lessened for this location in my view, just when it might reach a peak.

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The key issue is how models are trending to reduction in upstream jet. This has been critical component of explosive deepening. NAE and EURO4 picked up on this possibility yesterday AM and importantly, latest UKMO-GM also less developmental. So next assessment of 06z NAE v important.

 

thanks Ian - very interesting

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coast  will country file weather  2 nite be the  best one  to go by

 

Worth noting certainly.

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Morning all Posted Image

I'm in Milford Haven but will be in Kilgetty tomorrow, pembrokeshire.

How bad do you predict it could be?

Jayne if you click the red banner off the website for the warning, at the bottom are all the individual area warnings - and they will be updated through the day

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still looks stormy in the south to me?

 

Posted Image

and wet

 

Posted Image

Edited by karlos1983

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