The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 26/10/13 16z----->

[Rose]

stunning!Wonder if we'll wake to a light covering of snow tomorrow, meto still forecasting snow showers for my area.

Wow,  thank you for these pictures! I've never seen anything like it. I'm envious of you, it must have been breathtaking.

[Costa Del Fal]

Back in the Midlands next week. Enjoyed the milder conditions down here in Falmouth today. Christmas Jumper still needed but feels pretty nice even at 10c right now. Charts are quite uninspiring. However if this does turn out to be a milder winter, I think it could signal a return to patterns seen before 2007. Its a long shot but hopefully a good summer 2014 would be on its way. Who knows. Id rather have hot sunny days to enjoy in Cornwall than a little snow at home!

[BlueHedgehog074]

I think with the way things are going, getting some snow to sneak up on the cold/wintry fans before Christmas feels unlikely (even though the models two weeks ahead can clearly still easily change). But it does looks like a pattern that could set in for a while with a general mild flow between the South and West, along with the Polar Vortex staying quite strong to our North-West. There's always a possibility of an area of the Polar Vortex transferring from our North-West towards Northern Scandinavia or Siberia, which could help promote height rises to our West. This of which could help re-align the Jet Stream to flow from the North-West to the South-East giving us a colder flow from the North-West. Nevertheless, the NOAA 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly chart seems to suggest higher than average heights hanging about to our East with troughing in the Atlantic and also areas of Low heights to our North-West with a flow from the South-West or South.

 

 

As such, not really much signs of things turning much colder or wintrier in the next 10 days or so. In a way, as much as I want some snowy weather, am kind of glad charts like this are occuring now. Gives a good reason to not be so addicted watching the models (plus, it could make for some pleasant walking). ;-)

[Staffordshire]

Just been reflecting on the summer just gone and I must say apart from the lack of storms probably my favourite summer of recent times, especially July.

Edited December 8, 2013 by Staffordshire

[Summer of 95]

Milder winters don't always mean good summers: the nadir of the 20 years without a winter was probably the period 1998-2000 and those summers, except July 1999, were pretty crap (although not as bad as 2007-12). 

 

My instinct is we're going to see another winter with all the snow/cold in the second half: there has hardly been a flake of snow in Decembers since 2010, just like there wasn't for several years after 1981- and those winters weren't all mild.

[Bishop Brennan]

Just been reflecting on the summer just gone and I must say apart from the lack of storms probably my favourite summer of recent times, especially July.

 

Agreed. August was rather nondescript after a great start, but a nice June and a genuinely hot July more than made up for it.

 

Bish

[Costa Del Fal]

When I think back to the Summer, it really does make me think how I dont care about Winter so much anymore. I like snow but you cant beat a day sunbathing or whatever nice on a hot summers day especially down here with the stunning coastline etc.

 

It was fantastic to know you were going to wake up the next day and it would be hot blazing sunshine, Med like!. Exceptional.

[conor123]

Shockingly the weekend wasn't as awful as I expected, some good sunny spells at times and even more surprising, the sun's out again right now!

[picog]

Ground frost here this evening.

[conor123]

Despite the tropical uppers it's hovering around 5c under slate grey skies thus far, looks like the Eastern Med's the place to be for any excitement right now!

[Essan]

Anyone had any rain lately?  My gauge says I had 0.5mm end of last month when I was in Scotland, but it's getting on 4 weeks since I recorded anything else or actually saw anything apart from very brief light drizzle fall from the sky.Irony is that I've been told that one of the reasons why the replacing of the bridge in Evesham has gone over time is because of 'bad weather' - when in fact it couldn't possibly have been better!

[picog]

Looking at the dire outlook until the year end (GFS-style wet and windy), I am wondering if the frost last night and this morning will be the last of 2012.

[Costa Del Fal]

Looking at the dire outlook until the year end (GFS-style wet and windy), I am wondering if the frost last night and this morning will be the last of 2012.

I highly doubt it. We still have half of December left! Looks like being more mobile and if times right behind any lows and with any clear periods, good chance of frost.13/14c here in Falmouth today. Back home tomorrow. Hope I can see. Bit of snow over Christmas. Saw some on the ground last Easter but it's 2 years now since I saw a proper heavy snow fall. That's what you get for being in kernow I suppose

[conor123]

I've learnt my lesson now, never admit it when Telford has a nice day :lol: as soon as I posted about the pleasant conditions on Monday cloudzilla swamped back in and hasn't left since :lol:

[picog]

I see there are a few murmurings of excitement in the model thread — talk of snow and a pattern change!

[cyclonic happiness]

Ok, so Cairo had snow today! So we cannot be far off an amazing winter?

Even Australia is still getting snow in mid winter, not to mention the Whole of north america in the deep freeze.

 

We are always the last to join the party here, but when we do....it should be EPIC!

[CongletonHeat]

I see there are a few murmurings of excitement in the model thread — talk of snow and a pattern change!

Fortunately they are a bunch of hopecasters.

[cyclonic happiness]

Fortunately they are a bunch of hopecasters.

snow in Cairo!!!! Your argument is invalid :-D

[fizz511]

It won't last of course, and it is a Metcheck forecast (!), but just for a moment isn't this a lovely sight.... (Well for B93 anyway!)

Edited December 14, 2013 by fizz511

[Staffordshire]

GFS and UKMO this evening are looking... Let's say unsettled...

[Costa Del Fal]

Quite windy this evening! At least the Christmas period looks to have some active weather. Sadly any snow looks pretty darn unlikely. Longer term signals dont favour much presently either. Good chance of seeing no snow this winter for me if doesnt fall before the time I go back to Cornwall next month!

[Bishop Brennan]

Blimey, it's a bit breezy out there at the moment!

 

Looks like most of the rain decayed away before it reached much of the Midlands.

 

Bish

[cyclonic happiness]

Blimey, it's a bit breezy out there at the moment!

 

Looks like most of the rain decayed away before it reached much of the Midlands.

 

Bish

Doesn't it always? God! How bland has this region become for weather?

[conor123]

13c, breezy and soggy, basically no different to most June's :lol:

[conor123]

Yup always the way

In the meantime looks like two rather vicious looking storms to come this week on Wednesday & Friday, very possible for a frost free December to at this rate, very little else to say though really, a definite year of two halves with some decent events pre August and absolutely nothing since August arrived.

Edited December 15, 2013 by conor123