South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 26/10/13

[tinybill]

Those images are for next Sunday

 

Bill, is that up to date? As in recently released by met? That is worrying!

 

Bill, is that up to date? As in recently released by met? That is worrying!

yes  that  from the south west thread   and its worrying  its  on the same track as the great storm , plus that bbc weather man who always on there  has  upgraded the wind speeds  for hes area

[tinybill]

The UKMO has it deeper on it's 12z output, 980 deepening to 975mb over central england...

[Captain Shortwave]

How do you mean? Not looking good for storm lovers or has their been an upgrade?

Hi resolution models are showing the low to be much deeper (NAE - 972mb, HIRLAM - 968mb) low compared to the likes of the GFS/UKMO and other longer range models. In particular the hi resolution models are showing East Lincolnshire and Norfolk to get walloped by this storm as well as southern counties

[sarah7meme]

What do those charts mean John?

[Buzzit]

Tomorrow morning is going to be a tree snapper stay safe all

[JennyJane1]

Quote from the storm thread, another high resolution model, not good news either 

is it still looking bad for us?

[john pike]

 

ouch

 

my concern is still the same

 

good news above is the storm moves through very quickly

 

by 12 tomorrow it has well and truley gone

 

still windy but not extreme

 

 

bad news

 

as the low comes in at a rate of knots driven in by the powerful jet

 

it comes up against a wall of high pressure

 

this in turn will really tighten the isobars leading to the first charts posted above

 

as shown above the jet is running pretty strong there

 

i would say heavy rain hitting reasonably soon

 

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

about an hour away from the south of the region moving north east

 

winds picking up around 3-4am far south and west of the region first 60-70 mph gusts westerly

 

moving quickly to cover most areas again around 60-70 mph gusts around 5-6 am

 

clearing the south and west around 6am ish

 

now as the low gets really caught up against the high pressure as it heads north east

 

i can see some very strong gusts yarmouth areas around 7-8 am in excess of 80mph on the southern edge of the storm

 

this should clear all areas by around 11 am but still some fairly gusty winds continueing

 

throughout the day

 

sorry if a bit brief but i think you can see what i am getting at

 

there is an element of doubt how the jet will react to this storm

 

so keep watching the radar and nowcast is going to be the most accurate forecast

 

 

keep safe all

[k66yla]

I've got to walk to work at 5am.....not looking forward to that! 

[Lauren]

Thanks JP, I think we are all grateful here for your insight. Keep up the good work

[SteveCoops]

Greater Anglia are suspending all services until 9am - http://www.greateranglia.co.uk/about-us/news/2013/10/service-alterations-on-monday-28th-october-updated-at-1600

[sarah7meme]

Bro in law is master captain at Dover and partner is on nights for ambulance so I have requested running reports

[totalhysteria]

Just had an epic downpour here. Wind has calmed down since earlier.

[Captain Shortwave]

is it still looking bad for us?

If the hi-res output is right we will get right royally whacked. North norfolk coast could see 90, maybe even 100mph gusts. For us more like 80mph gusts.

[john pike]

of all the nights my computer starts playing up

[JennyJane1]

If the hi-res output is right we will get right royally whacked. North norfolk coast could see 90, maybe even 100mph gusts. For us more like 80mph gusts.

ok,, and that's at about 6 tomorrow morning?

[Captain Shortwave]

of all the nights my computer starts playing up

I think the netweather servers are struggling, I'm having issues on here

 

 

ok,, and that's at about 6 tomorrow morning?

between 6am and 9am, the stronger storm also takes longer to clear the east coast. Damn physics.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[saint]

It's quite a step for Network Rail to advise rail companies in the South and around London to not run devices until 9am... They must feel it's going to be bad!

It's quite a step for Network Rail to advise rail companies in the South and around London to not run devices until 9am... They must feel it's going to be bad!

It's quite a step for Network Rail to advise rail companies in the South and around London to not run devices until 9am... They must feel it's going to be bad!

[Flaked Queen]

It's net weather jp not your comp

[saint]

It's quite a step for Network Rail to advise rail companies in the South and around London to not run devices until 9am... They must feel it's going to be bad!

[john pike]

thanks captain

 

i should have guessed that

[Essex Chelle]

Sheppy bridge is closed - My friend who was driving to deal tomorrow at 6am has decided to listen to me and has left now, shes just driven passed the sign saying the bridge has closed.

[Flaked Queen]

Hubby picking up eldest from work ( thorp park ) at 11.00 so am praying it isn't that windy by then ! Going to all sleep downstairs and watch films so our little ones don't hear the wind ang get worried . Stay safe all x

[coldfingers]

Just had an epic downpour here. Wind has calmed down since earlier.

Yes a tremendous squall has just arrived with torrential rain driven by the still very strong winds.

[Neilsouth]

I've got to walk to work at 5am.....not looking forward to that! 

 

I'm walking back at 11.30pm tonight!

[Daniel Rednblue Bruce]

Wind and rain picking up in petworth.