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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 26/10/13


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Mornin each. Just seen the BBC weather forecast and they are still talking winds up to 80 mph maybe stronger on coast and exposed areas across much of England and Wales. Plus heavy rain with potential flooding. Oh...also some rumbles of thunder. :D

We've already had a few heavy showers in Ippy overnight and it's still very blustery.

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Can't belive the storm thread one run about a slight downgrade and hell breaks loose more runs to come!

Can't believe some are moaning about a downgrade as a home and car owner I would welcome it. Morning all bit blowy out there this morning woke me and the dogs up anyway. Let's see what today's updates bring.
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Can't believe some are moaning about a downgrade as a home and car owner I would welcome it. Morning all bit blowy out there this morning woke me and the dogs up anyway. Let's see what today's updates bring.

Quite shocking really imo. Some people need to grow up, as they would be the first ones complaning if a tree went through thier house
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Wouldn't they just. I'm still not convinced we are out of the woods yet though.

Far from it, people are letting a computer model predict the future.. That says it all.. Met office won't buy this I think it's a slight hiccup in the runs...
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morning  all  watching that line of showers lot of red in  it acc  rain alarm  far  as  BBC weather is  saying its still 85  mph -100   for to-night

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BBC I guess don't buy the downgrade I mea. Met office.. Of course they don't.. But why do people throw their toys miles when one model shows a little hiccup???

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@fergieweather: W COUNTRY #ukstorm UPDATE 0730GMT: Increased hope of a less developed system tomorrow AM; uncertainty; but full update around 10-11am today.

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Until the beast arrives nothing is set in stone, ignore the trolls and stick to what the experts say... Trying to predict this storm is going to be hell! So many factors involved... Plus we have had so much consistency in the runs, the conditions are ripe... we can now see this due to our storm now developing rapidly!

 

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Morning all from West Wales

 

A quiet start to the day here.

 

Thought I would quote this from NW Senior Forecaster Jo Farrow, just posted on the storm thread:

 

"There are murmourings of a less intense storm from MO, but still an event with disruption, heed warnings"

 

Going to be an interesting day, in all sorts of possible ways, but some of the stuff on the storm thread has been not just throwing toys out of the pram but picking up the whole pram and chucking it off a cliff! 

 

AS

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Morning all,

 

Yesterday, after being the slowest of all models to exit the low from the UK, 00z GFS have the feature already departed the east coast by 6 am, with peak winds for our area around 3 am or so.

 

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UKMO a little more delayed and suggest strongest winds will probably be reserved for around 6 am or so.

 

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ECM slowest of the 3 models, with the feature still over C.England at 6 am, with peak winds for our area, just a little later than UKMO.

 

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On the whole, the overnight models have, imo, moderated their view of this storm but with such a small, still developing and fast moving feature, this continues to have the potential to be a significant event, in terms of causing damage and disruption.Devil will be in the detail and it'll be a case of keeping an eye on satellite images and obs. from recording stations, as this feature zips through, to be certain of our fate.

 

Tom.

Edited by Kentish CZ
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Morning all. It's very difficult for me to properly keep up at the mo, as only have a small mobile phone. Thanks to all recent contributors. :)

One observation to Suffolk Boy though, is that just sometimes big storms do happen and to just effectively say that things are bound to downgrade and post the same 36 hours or so before the event and quote an earlier post, with no real rationale, strikes me as being a little naive. I for one, on

balance, hope you are correct and have no egg on your face in 36 hours.

Keep safe all and prepare for what might happen as best you can.

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Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 16sW COUNTRY #ukstorm The current @metoffice assessment suggests 60-70% chance of a developed storm; 30-40% chance one much less so. More later

 

Meaning... We ain't got a clue... but looks like the models are having a dodgy time... 

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