South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 26/10/13

[Legitimate]

So do we take the downgrade seriously

would probably be better to wait for morning when updated charts come out given us a clearer view

[chubbyfan]

it might lurch back up on a northern trajectory, its a volatile fast moving mix of high atl airmass and warm azores mid atlantic  air so anything could still happen.. 

[DanDorsetUK]

Netweather on twitter just mentioned southern shift of storm so impacting UK less.

If the low is not as deep as predicted the low will indeed shift south more! This is another sign of a downgrade

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=20&mode=0&carte=0

 

a few ensemble runs still show bad winds ( 7 )

 

the rest are windy but have dropped things further south

 

would now say wait for tomorrow

 

should be more clear tomorrow morning

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=10&mode=0&carte=0

[Jax]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=20&mode=0&carte=0

 

a few ensemble runs still show bad winds ( 7 )

 

the rest are windy but have dropped things further south

 

would now say wait for tomorrow

 

should be more clear tomorrow morning

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=10&mode=0&carte=0

I am far more happy for the low to either develop less or move out of the UK.

[snowfall09]

Could someone please tell me the area in which i should be looking for this developing storm.

 

Thanks

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rgb.html

[Mini tiger]

So is it true the very latest thoughts are that the storm is likely to have south abit sparing us the worst winds and the strongest

winds will be up the channel and northern coast of France. Do the latest models indicate this ?

[suffolkboy_]

I'd just like to draw everyone's attention to my post at 11.30 this morning on the last thread. 

 

 

"Trust me. This is going to be nothing like 1987, nowhere near. I can't see a 122mph gust occurring anywhere in the UK this time around!

 

I said it a couple of days ago and still stand by my thoughts now. The storm will be downgraded from what is forecast now. It will take a more southerly track. NAE has already hinted at this this morning (remember this is high resolution). Expect large changes in the forecast in the next 24 hours with the strongest of the winds being south of the UK. The south coast may still see gusts of 70mph plus but I can't see anything too extreme happening inland.

 

 

By all means though, don't take the warnings any less seriously, stay prepared for the worst.

 

 

 

 

 

Don't like to say 'told you so' but.....told you so. It may change again but I've seen it so many times before and it looks like happening again. All models tend to shift these lows further South about 24-36 hours before. I'm not sure of the reasons behind it but it often happens.

 

Do remember though that the models don't control the weather and there is still the possibility of this reverting back but I think this is a trend of things to come on the next few runs.

 

Edit: Can't use the quote function because it is on the last thread which is now closed

Edited October 26, 2013 by suffolkboy_

[sarah7meme]

If it shifts south I bet we still get it here

[Jax]

Could someone please tell me the area in which i should be looking for this developing storm.

 

Thanks

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rgb.html

 

 

So is it true the very latest thoughts are that the storm is likely to have south abit sparing us the worst winds and the strongest

winds will be up the channel and northern coast of France. Do the latest models indicate this ?

All changes but keep an eye on the model output and closer to the time the radar to see what is landing where.

 

 

use the various web sites to get a bit more info like here, meto etc.

[Jason T]

Could someone please tell me the area in which i should be looking for this developing storm.

 

Thanks

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rgb.html

http://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/St-Jude-s-Day-storm-Heavy-rain-50mph-winds-Hull/story-19987441-detail/story.html

[john pike]

its going to be a morning look to see what these models show now

 

gfs 18z says a no to the storm

 

gfs ensembles says a says a 35% yes 65%no

 

ukmo yes to storm

 

fax yes to storm

 

ecm yes to storm

 

so unless gfs has seen something the others have not i would wait until tomorrow

 

if this was another run rather than the 18z i would put more trust in it

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=se

 

met office still showing

 

i would be happy to not see this but not convinced of this southerly move yet

[Jax]

I'd just like to draw everyone's attention to my post at 11.30 this morning on the last thread. 

 

"Trust me. This is going to be nothing like 1987, nowhere near. I can't see a 122mph gust occurring anywhere in the UK this time around!

 

I said it a couple of days ago and still stand by my thoughts now. The storm will be downgraded from what is forecast now. It will take a more southerly track. NAE has already hinted at this this morning (remember this is high resolution). Expect large changes in the forecast in the next 24 hours with the strongest of the winds being south of the UK. The south coast may still see gusts of 70mph plus but I can't see anything too extreme happening inland.

 

 

By all means though, don't take the warnings any less seriously, stay prepared for the worst.

 

 

 

 

Don't like to say 'told you so' but.....told you so. It may change again but I've seen it so many times before and it looks like happening again. All models tend to shift these lows further South about 24-36 hours before. I'm not sure of the reasons behind it but it often happens.

 

Do remember though that the models don't control the weather and there is still the possibility of this reverting back but I think this is a trend of things to come on the next few runs.

 

Edit: Can't use the quote function because it is on the last thread which is now closed

 

Edit: Can't use the quote function because it is on the last thread which is now closed

 

 

 

yes you can

[Jason T]

Any storm is hard to pin point 

 

Could someone please tell me the area in which i should be looking for this developing storm.

 

Thanks

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rgb.html

 

 

The storm you need to watch,Is at the top of the image, 3/4 to the right, Look for the swirl.

[suffolkboy_]

yes you can

 

So you can....found the icon now  

Edited October 26, 2013 by suffolkboy_

[Jax]

How?

just cut and paste the text and use the quote function

[Jax]

just cut and paste the text and use the quote function

example

 

 

 

Posted 11 October 2013 - 09:04

Captain shortwave, on 11 Oct 2013 - 08:08, said:

Fingers crossed for a dry morning as I head up to the Norwich airport area for a job interview. Don't really want to get wet.

 

 

Are you taking your flying licence? Good luck Cpt!

 

 

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=316&y=154&run=18&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

 

gfs pressure ensembles

 

between 980-990

 

ecm ensembles

 

temps

 

wind

which looks strong and has agreement

 

pretty good agreement on heavy rain as well

 

 

this will be a big hats up to gfs 18z if correct

[Jax]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=316&y=154&run=18&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

 

gfs pressure ensembles

 

between 980-990

 

ecm ensembles

 

temps

 

wind

which looks strong and has agreement

 

pretty good agreement on heavy rain as well

 

 

this will be a big hats up to gfs 18z if correct

and a big hats on to meet the rainfall.

[dubmuffin]

So I've just got back from an evening out telling everyone to tie down the garden furniture and take care on Monday morning, only to find that the low has nosedived south whilst I wasn't looking and  - or am I wrong?

[john pike]

The 25% prob is based on the much-reduced gust values from raw 18z NAE (e.g. only 20-35kts Bristol area, as an example). EURO4 has equally reduced gusts in past 2 runs but UKMO aren't convinced. Anyway, they've suggested the 25% figure as a nod to NAE (not GFS); 00z runs across the board now very important for continuity.

 

post from ian f recently

 

certainly nothing sorted on this yet

[john pike]

Indeed. No it's not used. And given Chief Forecaster writes to us that key public message is for "people to try and change their work journeys Mon AM, e.g. delay if possible...", that says all you need to know on their current expectation.

 

and another one from the storm thread recently posted

 

 

so keep to heed the warnings for now

 

if the morning runs drop this then the warnings will come down

 

if this was a snow prediction gone wrong i would be gutted

 

as its damaging winds  i have no issue being wrong

[Jax]

So I've just got back from an evening out telling everyone to tie down the garden furniture and take care on Monday morning, only to find that the low has nosedived south whilst I wasn't looking and  - or am I wrong?

 

 

The 25% prob is based on the much-reduced gust values from raw 18z NAE (e.g. only 20-35kts Bristol area, as an example). EURO4 has equally reduced gusts in past 2 runs but UKMO aren't convinced. Anyway, they've suggested the 25% figure as a nod to NAE (not GFS); 00z runs across the board now very important for continuity.

 

post from ian f recently

 

certainly nothing sorted on this yet

This is bad how

[john pike]

hi jax

 

never said it was bad just showing its not sorted yet

 

ukmo not backing down is key there

 

wait until tomorrow now

[Jason T]

This is bad how

 

 

Energy and The sinking Jet Stream, Meto still going for a rough ride.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/