South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 26/10/13

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THIS IT NOT MY PROPERTY! COURTESY OF METMONKEY!

[Summer of 76]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 16sW COUNTRY #ukstorm The current @metoffice assessment suggests 60-70% chance of a developed storm; 30-40% chance one much less so. More later

I think I will wait for the met office update at noon and see what they do with the impact matrix, 60 to 70 is still a high percentage

[tinybill]

I think I will wait for the met office update at noon and see what they do with the impact matrix, 60 to 70 is still a high percentage

or wait till the country file weather    2  nite  that should give them 9 hours notice till the storm due

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

What time is it ?

Bright and breezy here in MK

Remember this is still a developing system

...........as it stands we are one box away from Red !

Edited October 27, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Croydondazz]

Morning all,

What time is it ?

Bright and breezy here in MK

Remember this is still a developing system

image.jpg

...........as it stands we are still one box away from Red !

image.jpg

Mk

I guess you are not buying the downgrade yet?

[Storme]

Morning. back online. We already woke to a power cut this morning. Is that an omen it won't be bad or far worse than we hope. Pretty nasty winds here last night too.

Will try to keep up with everything today.

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http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/eastern-atlantic-ocean-ir-satellite-loop.html

 

Well its there...

[Coast]

Spent an enjoyable afternoon watching a new presentation by a local amateur group of the story of the Rye Lifeboat disaster of 1928:

 

 

http://theatricaleastbourne.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/marys-boys-open-auditions-theatre.html

 

It contained many references and songs about the weather and the sea, in particular a song entitled 'there's a storm coming'. I wonder how they organised that?!!!! More on the Rye lifeboat disaster here:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/50521-the-1928-rye-lifeboat-disaster/

[tinybill]

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/eastern-atlantic-ocean-ir-satellite-loop.html

 

Well its there...

thanks  for that

[SLEETY]

wind howling outside here on the coast,expecting it to be wild here tonight even if the storm is downgraded..

[Captain Shortwave]

Wet start this morning. Hopefully it will cheer up later.

Well looks like the models has reduced the intensity of the storm and by the looks of it the storm is further south and moving quicker than even the midnight runs were expecting. Given the estofex forecast this storm has that 1 squall line feeling about it.

[Snowangel-MK]

MkI guess you are not buying the downgrade yet?

There is no denying that recent runs suggest a less severe storm it's still likely to cause some problems especially along the south coast so we are not out of the woods yet ! Complicated situations can change at short notice and there is still the potential for description tomorrow - be prepared for the worst and stay safe is still the best advice :-)

[Essexgooner]

Any time frame yet for the South East on this event, we saying stronger gusts starting this late evening through to late morning tomorrow?

[Coast]

Any time frame yet for the South East on this event, we saying stronger gusts starting this late evening through to late morning tomorrow?

 

Looks about right, I'd say peak now after midnight:

 

[Grinzzz]

I'd be glad of any downgrade, so long as the storm knows it's been downgraded as well.  I live in a place known locally as windy ridge and the house is surrounded by trees.  We've tied down everything in the garden but not sure if I can tie the trees down!

[Essexgooner]

Looks about right, I'd say peak now after midnight:

 

 

Thanks for that coast    Off to batten stuff down in the garden in a moment, lol

[Storme]

Yes we are gonna secure stuff in the garden in a bit. Still worried about our powerlines. Some really big trees around here.

[nanu]

To be honest im on the side of "theres a nasty system coming" so what!!.. been through this many a time. it will come and go in a blink of an eye, the trouble is that we have all this internet and social media that we all use and everybody seems to hang on to all this as "all gospel" to what is and will happen.

I will go about my business as usual and go to bed, the wind will most prob wake me up about 3am which is ideal as i have to be in work at 5am, i will leave my house pick up my bins, step over over a few branches / fence panels (if it does get up to 80mph gusts) and arrive in work and answer all the phone calls of people ringing in sick due to lack of sleep because of the worrying!!

Older people on here know we have been through this kind of weather pattern time and time again, do we talk about it??  only the 1987/1990 storms that came crashing through and they were three to four times the size of this one which we still dont know what it will do yet!! So take a chill pill enjoy the sunshine and go about your day as per usual and just see what happens,, oh and my new neighbours (foreign, cant speak a word of english!!) is worried and is cutting down his apple tree as i type, which has stood through every storm thrown at it!!  lovely tree as well, produces big apples every year which my old neighbours use to make cider with!!

Edited October 27, 2013 by nanu

[Coast]

Yes we are gonna secure stuff in the garden in a bit. Still worried about our powerlines. Some really big trees around here.

 

My garden's just gone into 'Lockdown' !

[tinybill]

put this in the  model thread by mistake  !!! 1  o clock in the  morning

[Callie]

Moved most things in the garden yesterday, just wondering what to do with the flower pots still out there on the patio, hoping they are low enough and heavy enough not to cause too many problems :s

[Coast]

Moved most things in the garden yesterday, just wondering what to do with the flower pots still out there on the patio, hoping they are low enough and heavy enough not to cause too many problems :s

 

I'll come and pick up anything that escapes my garden, at yours tomorrow evening C! 

[Callie]

I'll come and pick up anything that escapes my garden, at yours tomorrow evening C! 

 

Hoping it won't get that bad At least I am on a hill for any rain to run off

[Coast]

Netweather NMM has the gust peaks still quite intense for us and many in the SE after Midnight:

 

 

 

Edited October 27, 2013 by Coast

[Snowangel-MK]

There were always uncertainties over the exact track, timing and intensity of this depression, and the chance that the low would take a more southerly course - however with strong to exceptionally strong winds on the southern and western flanks there is still the potential for damaging winds gusts across southern Britain and exposed Channel coasts.