Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

[A.J]

I agree - this is the kind of unhelpful stupidity that everyone can do without.

 

A realistic assessment of this is that it is very unlikely to be anything like 1987 (afterall every time there is an autumn storm there is scaremongering about this) but as one who looks to be in an especially area for this, it also looks to a strong low nonetheless.

 

70 to 80 mph gusts seem very probable around southern coasts and these most likely to be strongest on the south western side of the low as it pulls north eastwards across central england during Monday. Depending on the exact track then away from the south and south coast there is also a risk to some northern and north eastern parts as the low exits the north sea.

 

Southern coasts especially most at risk from south westerly winds off the channel as the low starts to cross from the south west and as the wind swings westerly in the wake of the low some of the strongest gusts could occur for a short time. Then the risk transfers further north east after lunchtime, with the risk of severe west to north westerly gales as the wind exits into the North Sea

top post Tamara

 

Yes, probably a little extreme, though in October 1987 we ended up being without mains power for six days and telephone for a day over three weeks. Don't underestimate the power of nature.....

worth noting that one should also not underestimate the sensationalist drivel & overhype that is posted on internet forums that does nothing more than worry people......Yes, this particular low pressure system has the potential for damaging winds in exposed parts, but that's all it is at this juncture, potential, and thus as long as individuals take prudent steps (such as perhaps move lightweight garden furniture into one's garage and other common sense measures) then there's not too much to worry about.....As a previous poster mentioned, this is not a hurricane, rather a vigorous autumnal atlantic depression as it currently stands

[Mapantz]

What's your highest ever Uk reading?

 

 I've only had my handheld one since 2009 but i did get 70mph+ in quick succession at Kimmeridge bay, i was stood at the top of the cliff. The mean speeds were 45 - 50mph. This was back in 2010 i think? I have videos on YouTube of it, i'll dig one out if i can get to a laptop as i can't do it on here.

The wind was so strong, it was sending sea water back up the cliff (around 60ft) like a giant spray machine, it was brilliant fun.

 

Just to itterate to others on here (just in case you think it's irresponsible)  i've been heading out to storms around these coastal parts for many years, i know the area/paths very well and i play it safe, i've never had an incident occur.  

Edited October 26, 2013 by Mapantz

[A.J]

Not surprised to see a red now..

worth looking at john H's posts earlier bud.....red warnings, if required, won't be issued until much nearer the event......an amber warning is more prudent at this stage

[fergieweather]

Yes, I was just discussing the NAE raw output. The ECMWF high res. is usually the most accurate to run with. Definitely >NAE IMO. Although obviously both have their caveats.

It's an amalgamation process relying primarily on UKMO-GM (the most consistent model in handling the storm); EC; NCEP; NAE; EURO4 (being used for PPN & high-res windfield determination); ARPEGE; JMA; and UKV at closer timeframe.

[Guest William Grimsley]

A little off topic. But, another severe storm is possible on Saturday especially for SW England, Wales and Ireland. Though, this is likely to change.

 

UK wind speed/dir (streams). Valid: Sat 02/11 18:00.

 

Edited October 26, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Dancerwithwings]

Round two for next Saturday/Sunday

Edited October 26, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[radiohead]

I see Ian mentioned IR vs model mismatches.

 

If anyone is interested, that is something you can view on here to an extent (though probably not as good as the tools Ian has)  :

 

http://eumetrain.org/eport/euro_06.php?width=1360&height=768&date=2013102606&region=euro

 

If you toggle the IR and Pseudo IR options on the right hand side you can compare real imagery with simulated imagery of what the ECM thinks things should look like. You can do it with WV too, which is water vapor.

[Su Campu]

It's amazing how a system like this generates such a frenzy in southern England whereas it wouldn't cause a fuss elsewhere, in say Scotland or Ireland. It's not a criticism, just an observation.

[Summer Sun]

ECM suggests round 2 further north next weekend with this low tracking north of Scotland if it arrived

 

 

Ensemble run

 

Edited October 26, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Mapantz]

It's amazing how a system like this generates such a frenzy in southern England whereas it wouldn't cause a fuss elsewhere, in say Scotland or Ireland. It's not a criticism, just an observation.

 

Risk factor to lives is far more substantial down here.

[karlos1983]

It's amazing how a system like this generates such a frenzy in southern England whereas it wouldn't cause a fuss elsewhere, in say Scotland or Ireland. It's not a criticism, just an observation.

 

Is it just curiosity that brought you in here then 

[fergieweather]

Chief's new briefing received. In a nutshell: NAE modified much towards EC & new GM (broadly similar). So, low centre shifted NW, slowed a tad & deepened. EC currently considered closest match to IR imagery.

Key concern remains the overlapping zone walloped by inital SWrly phase & likely again by later W'rly squeeze. Phasing of these uncertain. I can't share the graphics with you from Ops Centre, but for descriptive sake, this zone - albeit roughly & uncertainly delineated - currently encompasses S'rn parts W Country (eg Dorset; S & E Somerset) & adjacent areas. Evaluation of current warnings actively ongoing.

[Captain Shortwave]

A little off topic. But, another severe storm is possible on Saturday especially for SW England, Wales and Ireland. Though, this is likely to change.

 

UK wind speed/dir (streams). Valid: Sat 02/11 18:00.

 

GEM picked up on this yesterday, route is exactly the same as the one for Monday with a low developing off the Eastern seaboard and engaging the cold air to our north west causing rapid cyclogenesis before hitting the UK.

[iand61]

Round two for next Saturday/Sunday

Thankfully a long way out yet but the current position brings my part of the world into the direct firing line just as I'm trying to fly out of Manchester on holiday.

Earlier, later, further north, further south; I'm not bothered but not where it shows at present although no doubt some changes will take place nearer the time.

[Dibdabbers]

Normally a snow geek but this storm is making me quite excited. Can basically write off this weekend as I will be glued to this forum. (Apart from panic buying of course;-))

So all you clever people out there put me out my misery, will the West Midlands be in the firing line?

[suffolkboy_]

It's amazing how a system like this generates such a frenzy in southern England whereas it wouldn't cause a fuss elsewhere, in say Scotland or Ireland. It's not a criticism, just an observation.

 

The difference is the winds are forecast to be strong in areas which don't see strong winds all that often.

 

80mph gusts on the Isle of Skye is likely to have much less impact that say 80mph gust over Surrey.

 

In my part of the world, we seldom see sustained winds of 40mph or gusts over 55/60mph. A couple of years ago I recorded gusts of 62mph. On the stretch of road from my village to the next (about 4 miles) there were 7 trees down and we had no power for a week.

 

The problem is if the strong winds are seldom seen in an area, all those dead branches, weak trees and dodgy roof tiles that have sat there for some 5 or 6 years all come down in one hit!

[Cyclonic]

Guys mind if i ask a few Questions.

 

Do i still need to be concerned here on the Isle of wight, there is talk its going out in the channel so south may miss worst or do you think its track will mean south gets hit badly..

[Nol de Ruiter]

HIRLAM 04:00 UTC Monday.

[Raidan]

I think its fair to say that different people will look at this storm in different ways,people with access to charts and are weather knowledgable will be able to advise others on the possibilities and how to prepare where as people who only have access to tv forecasts and papers may get scared especially the older generation,I think stocking up on supplies weather there needed or not come the storm is a good idea as we don't really know how bad its going to be,either way its better to safe and prepared than sorry,I myself will keeping a eye on my elderly neighbour who lives on her own,anyhow I hope everyone stayys safe and take care.

[karlos1983]

Guys mind if i ask a few Questions.

 

Do i still need to be concerned here on the Isle of wight, there is talk its going out in the channel so south may miss worst or do you think its track will mean south gets hit badly..

 

South coast is currently very much in the firing line as far as the wind is concerned.

[bluearmy]

It's an amalgamation process relying primarily on UKMO-GM (the most consistent model in handling the storm); EC; NCEP; NAE; EURO4 (being used for PPN & high-res windfield determination); ARPEGE; JMA; and UKV at closer timeframe.

Ian, i note that you havent includd GEM GLB in that list. is that a reflection of exeter's view of that model? It runs at very high res pre T48 so should be a decent reference.

[Summer Sun]

Latest warnings

 

Amber warning wind

 

Issued at: 1153 on Sat 26 Oct 2013

 

Valid from: 0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

 

Valid to: 2100 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

 

A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding, while the winds will lead to some very large waves around our coasts. There remains some uncertainty in the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A developing storm is expected to reach the UK later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, probably across England and Wales during Monday, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. There is the potential for gusts of 60-80 mph quite widely and locally over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in the southwesterly winds ahead of the low centre and west to northwesterly winds behind it. 20 to 40 mm of rain may fall within 6 to 9 hours, leading to localised flooding, especially where drainage is impeded by wind-blown debris. This warning will be updated Sunday morning.

 

Covers same areas as yesterday, one step of a red warning now

Edited October 26, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Rammie]

Guys mind if i ask a few Questions.

 

Do i still need to be concerned here on the Isle of wight, there is talk its going out in the channel so south may miss worst or do you think its track will mean south gets hit badly..

Still think it is too early to say. There maybe talk of it heading south, there is talk of it heading north too! Even in the late stages, it could still change course at the last minute. 

[Nick123]

What about North East?

[Zero101]

Hi all - warnings updated on met office website, i notice the matrix has crept further towards the red.....