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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2


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The issue I have...is that despite modern technology we are still no clearer on the track. In the US they seem to be able to firm up on hurricanes quite well...but here it always seems to go wrong...be it snow or even rain.

 

So essentially...going back to 87...we are in a no stronger position apart from the fact the media can hype. And yes I'd love to see a good storm...I don't want to see people hurt...but as an enthusiast this is a good as we get to a hurricane style system.

hurricanes cover a vast area and move more slowly though don't they ?..they'd be easier to track/predict.

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Pretty sure the Meto hasn't guaranteed a storm, just the potential. If it does all change tomorrow it just goes to show how difficult forecasting still is even with all the technology at our disposal.

They can't guarantee anything with absolute certainty - but they are pretty certain of a potentially very nasty storm for the southern half of England and Wales.

 

As things stand, we're just one tick away from seeing a red warning - weather impact and likelihood are both high.

 

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I can't take any more of this - off to bed to hopefully wake up to some more consistency in the runs by morning. With all this change in the models it feels like mid-winter trying to forecast the position of a stalling front and who will see 20cm of snow. The beauty of weather forecasting I suppose!

if you look to the west of UK. Huge area of water with despite improvement in data collation, huge areas of poor observation. One day in many hundreds of years we may have near 100% accuracy. But we simply can't at the moment. So why are you expecting consistency in the model runs from different organisations at over 24 hours.
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The "If" suggested that a backtrack on the models and no powerful storm would represent them failing.

 

Otherwise, what did you mean by "if"?

 

Sorry, but it was clear what your post was driving at. If the storm doesn't materialise as they have been forecasting, they will not have failed. The models will have performed poorly.

Nick, he is young, only 14! He will learn but give him time and don't be hard on him. I do understand his frustration, and yours too!.

Helping him learn will be a better lesson than haranguing him methinks.

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The issue I have...is that despite modern technology we are still no clearer on the track. In the US they seem to be able to firm up on hurricanes quite well...but here it always seems to go wrong...be it snow or even rain.

 

So essentially...going back to 87...we are in a no stronger position apart from the fact the media can hype. And yes I'd love to see a good storm...I don't want to see people hurt...but as an enthusiast this is a good as we get to a hurricane style system.

 

Rob this is the exact point I was going to make myself. Resolution of models has no doubt improved tremendously. However, I don't think accuracy has necessarily improved at a proportional rate- which makes the extra resolution pretty much redundant as all you end up with is a more detailed version of an inaccurate outcome. That said, not quite sure why some people are being dramatic and slating the Metoffice? I mean seriously, someone won't do their work experience at a highly regarded meteorological agency because of a potential downgrade in NWP modelling?! OK then.......

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hurricanes cover a vast area and move more slowly though don't they ?..they'd be easier to track/predict.

 

True...this is obviously different to forecast...but I think when people are aware of how accurate hurricane predications are...it makes our forecasts look poor...but that is the nature of the system which is difficult to track and pinpoint.

 

If this was a snow event...people would be shouting right now with the 18Z output. I wasn't aware that masses of snow and cold temps don't kill people...like strong winds could. I'm not sure some of the arguments are valid...any type of weather can kill but people seem to be getting hysterical over some of us 'wishing for direct impact'.

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Rob this is the exact point I was going to make myself. Resolution of models has no doubt improved tremendously. However, I don't think accuracy has necessarily improved at a proportional rate- which makes the extra resolution pretty much redundant as all you end up with is a more detailed version of an inaccurate outcome. That said, not quite sure why some people are being dramatic and slating the Metoffice? I mean seriously, someone won't do their work experience at a highly regarded meteorological agency because of a potential downgrade in NWP modelling?! OK then.......

 

Yes...I think you are right. We can see these things out much further in advance...but what difference does that make when the day comes and it diverts. We might as well not have the predications. We also shouldn't point fingers at the Met Office either. I found Jay Wynnes forecast at 10.30pm interesting as he ended with 'dangerous conditions' or something. Quite a stark message for a British forecast...more akin to the US hyped ones!

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Question, this low has only in reality recently formed I believe so does this mean that the real data regarding this has only been for the first time fed into the GFS 18z run hence why it might be showing a different scenario? I mean did the low actually exist on the 12z run or was it still then just a prediction based on other input?

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Why would people want a downgrade? Why be afraid of this "storm" it's exciting is it not? I'm guessing we all live in brick houses (unlike those places in the rest of the world that have real storms who all seem to live in wooden houses Posted Image )  and work in brick built buildings.

 

Sure there is about a 1 in 5 million chance of being hit by a falling tree on your way to work but even if that is a concern you can book the day off.

 

It's nothing to be scared of. 

Edited by Lee Jones
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Very interesting 12-18 hrs coming up, to see whether the fuse is lit on this system. Coming into nowcasting range and a classic bit of model drama.

 

Let's be honest about things, as much as everyone wants a monster system and hardcore model output to mull over, the reality is if this downgrades and does not verify to some of the more extreme solutions then this is a bonus.

 

Surface plot 2200

post-7292-0-59383700-1382828321_thumb.gi

 

Eport airmass imagery from 18z

post-7292-0-59514700-1382828344_thumb.pn

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True...this is obviously different to forecast...but I think when people are aware of how accurate hurricane predications are...it makes our forecasts look poor...but that is the nature of the system which is difficult to track and pinpoint. If this was a snow event...people would be shouting right now with the 18Z output. I wasn't aware that masses of snow and cold temps don't kill people...like strong winds could. I'm not sure some of the arguments are valid...any type of weather can kill but people seem to be getting hysterical over some of us 'wishing for direct impact'.

I'm sure some people don't like snow, everyone has their personal preference. Personally I hate storms and thunderstorms, perhaps I have a fear of having no power for days? I'm not sure if there is such a phobia?
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Hmm, only a handful of the ensembles seem to be showing a strong clearly defined low. Not sure if this is a sudden trend or just the lower resolution of the ensembles having issues trying to resolve the rapid development.

 

Either way I think we'll have a much better idea in the morning when the 0Z's are out!

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Why would people want a downgrade? Why be afraid of this "storm" it's exciting is it not? I'm guessing we all live in brick houses (unlike those places in the rest of the world that have real storms who all seem to live in wooden houses Posted Image )  and work in brick built buildings.

 

Sure there is about a 1 in 5 million chance of being hit by a falling tree on your way to work but even if that is a concern you can book the day off.

 

It's nothing to be scared of. 

I think the reason some would want a downgrade because a lot of people may well not have buildings insurance .

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I'm sure some people don't like snow, everyone has their personal preference. Personally I hate storms and thunderstorms, perhaps I have a fear of having no power for days? I'm not sure if there is such a phobia?

I hate the same, phobia? may not be, inconvience maybe.

 

 

more a matter of day to day than anything else I think.

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Nick, he is young, only 14! He will learn but give him time and don't be hard on him. I do understand his frustration, and yours too!.

Helping him learn will be a better lesson than haranguing him methinks.

Point taken. Posted Image

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Does anyone have any data of the current position and pressure? 

 

Do remember this is what keeps us so interested and glued to this forum and model watching, if every model was bang on the money 7 days out it would be boring, bit like the indain GP tomorrow, we all know Vettel will win, but this situation is still evolving and could go either way every time. 

 

To write this off because of 1 single global run, would be foolish, at the same time it can't be ruled out, keep your heads people or you'll be having heart failure by the time winter comes and the threat of Easterlies and snow, which 9 times out of 10 don't come to fruition! That's 1 thing this Forum has taught me over the past 2/3 years, she will do what she pleases (mother nature).

 

As for the Met Office, they've done everything correct so far IMO, no Red Warnings, be on Alert, watch the forecast as this is an "evolving situation". What more can you ask for? They are looking after the public's best interests, and so far have been very forthcoming with the forecast and keeping everyone updated.

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I'm sure some people don't like snow, everyone has their personal preference. Personally I hate storms and thunderstorms, perhaps I have a fear of having no power for days? I'm not sure if there is such a phobia?

 

There's a phobia for everything these days...

 

electrophobia - Wiktionary

 

 

....so why not noelectrophobia.Posted Image 

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