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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

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Right, I really do not know what to say.... 

 

Could this be a bigger anticlimax than the failed beasterly last year! God only knows what the outcome will be from this. I would not like to be a forecaster, I know that much. 

If this fails though, there is going to be some major trust issues with people in general and the met office. Quite bad really as this could well lead to high levels of complacency with people. Not good for the future if we really do see a mindblowing storm of epic proportions and people think, 'ah well, they said this last time!' However, this still has a possibility yet, and no dismissal of it should be taken until Monday Morning. It could all change back drastically again for tomorrow! 

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This is not what I wanted to see from the GFS, and now the Met saying 25% chance of decreased winds. If it's ever a 50/50 chance, I usually get it wrong 100% of the time, I can see this going the way of the pear now. You can't dismiss the GFS 24 hours away from the event, we wouldn't if it was showing an intensifying low. Blooming hell this weather lark is emotional! This would be on a par with that failed ECM beasterly!

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Right, I really do not know what to say.... 

 

Could this be a bigger anticlimax than the failed beasterly last year! God only knows what the outcome will be from this. I would not like to be a forecaster, I know that much. 

If this fails though, there is going to be some major trust issues with people in general and the met office. Quite bad really as this could well lead to high levels of complacency with people. Not good for the future if we really do see a mindblowing storm of epic proportions and people think, 'ah well, they said this last time!' However, this still has a possibility yet, and no dismissal of it should be taken until Monday Morning. It could all change back drastically again for tomorrow! 

If the met office fail this, I will not be applying for work experience with them this year.

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You watch, it will track over cumbria to edinbourgh as a 945 system now :)

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Yes, I'd imagine the 25% risk was already there before the 06Z GFS run, otherwise the Likely tick on the warning matrix would already be at its highest point.[/quote

The 25% prob is based on the much-reduced gust values from raw 18z NAE (e.g. only 20-35kts Bristol area, as an example). EURO4 has equally reduced gusts in past 2 runs but UKMO aren't convinced. Anyway, they've suggested the 25% figure as a nod to NAE (not GFS); 00z runs across the board now very important for continuity.

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Haha doen't that run show literally no wind? Going to take some explaining that. I told you's they are using the rain as a back-up plan.

 

"Well there wasn't any wind but it still rained heavy for a bit during rush hour"

Edited by Lee Jones

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If the met office fail this, I will not be applying for work experience with them this year.

But they haven't failed. They have accurately reflected the best model output. They have not put out a red warning precisely because of the chance of a 24hr-out backtrack.

 

I simply don't understand these posts about egg on face/failed/poor performance/loss of credibility.

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is it starting to be downgraded ??..good news and bad depending on how likely you think your windows might be broken by flying debris..

 

bill giles needs to suddenly invent some 'Viagra for failing megastorms' to give it some added oomph,

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18Z HIRLAM with a 964mb. Tight pressure gradient, gales and strong gales well inland and storm force on the south coast.

 

Posted Image

And even stronger in the southwest, violent storm force to force 12 around coasts there.

Posted Image

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Cant really understand why people would want a storm that could cause damage but each to their own I guess. I certainly find it sad how some people are so critical of the Meto when they are only going on the model information they receive which of course has shown the POTENTIAL for  a large storm. Still is going to be very windy in the far south for a time, still could be a strong gale. 18z GFS clearly shows all is not resolved yet but dont dismiss it because it isnt showing what you want. That is very foolish.

Edited by Blizzards

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Pah, who needs movies when you've got suspense like this. The will it or won't it storm of Oct 2013 has got to be more tense tha Eastenders 'who shot Phil?'.

Wouldn't want to be a pilot in the coming days

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If this does get downgraded tomorrow and the low not as deep this could cause the low to sink further south too anyway

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Right, I really do not know what to say....  Could this be a bigger anticlimax than the failed beasterly last year! God only knows what the outcome will be from this. I would not like to be a forecaster, I know that much. If this fails though, there is going to be some major trust issues with people in general and the met office. Quite bad really as this could well lead to high levels of complacency with people. Not good for the future if we really do see a mindblowing storm of epic proportions and people think, 'ah well, they said this last time!' However, this still has a possibility yet, and no dismissal of it should be taken until Monday Morning. It could all change back drastically again for tomorrow!

I think the UKMO will get off lightly in here because its not like they promised lots of snow which failed to materialize, then there would have been carnage with tears and throwing sledges out of the pram! I'm relieved for people who could have been effected and like me detest storms,but I agree we'll have to wait till tomorrow to see whether the models do downgrade this.

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This highlights perfectly why a red warning wasn't issued today.

 

This far out we were never going to see a Red warning, even amber warnings will be scrutinised by all and sundry if this is a damp squib. If this dosent come off I will be gutted, but let's be honest, forcasting on this little rock of ours must be an absolute nightmare due to so many variables and although we think we could do a better job than senior forecasters and supercomputers......I beg to differ, even though I do like a good moan sometimes....(hypocritical or what!) Posted Image

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The 25% prob is based on the much-reduced gust values from raw 18z NAE (e.g. only 20-35kts Bristol area, as an example). EURO4 has equally reduced gusts in past 2 runs but UKMO aren't convinced. Anyway, they've suggested the 25% figure as a nod to NAE (not GFS); 00z runs across the board now very important for continuity.

 

Thanks for the input Ian. Still looking quite severe on the 18Z HIRLAM, though I am not sure if that is used as part of the official forecasts?

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The issue I have...is that despite modern technology we are still no clearer on the track. In the US they seem to be able to firm up on hurricanes quite well...but here it always seems to go wrong...be it snow or even rain.

 

So essentially...going back to 87...we are in a no stronger position apart from the fact the media can hype. And yes I'd love to see a good storm...I don't want to see people hurt...but as an enthusiast this is a good as we get to a hurricane style system.

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Yes, I'd imagine the 25% risk was already there before the 06Z GFS run, otherwise the Likely tick on the warning matrix would already be at its highest point.[/quote

The 25% prob is based on the much-reduced gust values from raw 18z NAE (e.g. only 20-35kts Bristol area, as an example). EURO4 has equally reduced gusts in past 2 runs but UKMO aren't convinced. Anyway, they've suggested the 25% figure as a nod to NAE (not GFS); 00z runs across the board now very important for continuity.

thanks for that fergie. will the winds still be strong in my area and is there still a chance of sting jet??

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But they haven't failed. They have accurately reflected the best model output. They have not put out a red warning precisely because of the chance of a 24hr-out backtrack.

 

I simply don't understand these posts about egg on face/failed/poor performance/loss of credibility.

I never said they have, I said 'If'. I completely respect the Met Office for their hard work.

??? So presumably also neither applying at ECMWF or NOAA-NWS?IF this were to downgrade at 12-24hrs notice, the vast majority of the nation would breath a collective sigh of relief on many levels. Me included.

It was aimed for a joke, but this forum isn't made for jokes apologises.

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Yes, I'd imagine the 25% risk was already there before the 06Z GFS run, otherwise the Likely tick on the warning matrix would already be at its highest point.[/quote

The 25% prob is based on the much-reduced gust values from raw 18z NAE (e.g. only 20-35kts Bristol area, as an example). EURO4 has equally reduced gusts in past 2 runs but UKMO aren't convinced. Anyway, they've suggested the 25% figure as a nod to NAE (not GFS); 00z runs across the board now very important for continuity.

 

 

thanks Ian for once again injecting some rational comment from the professionals, enjoy the long night folks

 

IF the 00z returns to what the Fax chart has suggested all along, then 99% of the UK population will have no idea of the trauma for a few folk on web sites like this.

Edited by johnholmes

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I never said they have, I said 'If'. I completely respect the Met Office for their hard work.

The "If" suggested that a backtrack on the models and no powerful storm would represent them failing.

 

Otherwise, what did you mean by "if"?

 

Sorry, but it was clear what your post was driving at. If the storm doesn't materialise as they have been forecasting, they will not have failed. The models will have performed poorly.

Edited by NickR

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Pretty sure the Meto hasn't guaranteed a storm, just the potential. If it does all change tomorrow it just goes to show how difficult forecasting still is even with all the technology at our disposal.

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One dodgy output is just that ....one dodgy output.. as iansays we need to see if this starts a trend ...untill then its just one dodgy output ;) ...now calm down lol

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