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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

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Short of taking a chainsaw to them tomorrow, not a lot. If you want to avoid the netting getting damaged, could you take it down temporarily?

It has been nailed to a fence below it so it isn't an option, thanks for the reply.

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18Z GFS quite...different. Seems to develop double lows with energy shared between them? Looks a little unlikely, maybe the model struggling a bit?

Edited by radiohead

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all much further south and not as strong on the gfs 18z

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Yep, quite a shift south on the latest GFS! Although this may alter next run again, a slight change could make a huge difference with this system. Really is going to go down to the wire.

The hilarious thing is that if this solution is right, my poached Monday morning egg would be smeared and tarnished across the whole media network!!

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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Oh dear, don't say it's going to downgrade massively!! ><

 

 

 

Posted Image

 

Entirely possible. I said a couple of days ago it could just be a wave feature with the strongest winds over N France and far S coastal counties.

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Anyone else want to throw their toys out too? Ready? All of us at once? 1.......2........3... :-D

 

If this update is right, the Met office are going to be massively discredited :-(

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Jesus if the 18z was right that would be embarrassing!!

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Oh dear, don't say it's going to downgrade massively!! ><

 

 

 

Posted Image

 

Yeah, looks worse on this run much wetter, downgrade

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Looks like it's trying to develop two lows, one behind the other. Hmm, not sure I'm buying this solution.

 

Posted Image

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12Z:post-18097-0-05213000-1382823728_thumb.p

 

18Z: post-18097-0-28659000-1382823747_thumb.p

 

Isobars in 18Z are nowhere near as tight as the 12Z.

 

While to the SW/W/NW the isobars are actually quite spaced out, what's going on?

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Indeed, yes we have no control over Mother Nature and I guess, with climate change, the reality of more severe weather having an impact is increasing.

 

So you've not heard of the Great Storm of 26th November 1703 — right in the middle of the Little Ice Age?

 

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1700_1749.htm

 

Just like now, the lead up to the storm was unseasonably warm and humid.

 

Climate changes all the time — we're currently in an interglacial epoch.

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I wouldnt trust this run, its not sitting right at all!

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Anyone else want to throw their toys out too? Ready? All of us at once? 1.......2........3... :-D

 

If this update is right, the Met office are going to be massively discredited :-(

 

Mainly good news really for people wanting to get to work on Monday morning.

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I can almost say that's a dodgy run, comparing them to other models.

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Would that be a "double yolker"? Could it be the 2 lows of equal progged strength or diluted between the 2?

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Anyone else want to throw their toys out too? Ready? All of us at once? 1.......2........3... :-D If this update is right, the Met office are going to be massively discredited :-(

Why? This low was always going to be a nightmare to forecast, what are the UKMO supposed to do when all the models progged a storm? They had no choice but to put up warnings, anyway I'd wait till tomorrow because you can see the volatility with this if you get this much difference between outputs.

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for anyone who would like to learn a bit about meteorology as it happens go to the wetter or Net Wx equivalent and toggle between the surface chart and the 300mb wind flow, the purple show where the jet is, move it out to T+48 and notice how the surface low moves from the south side of the jet to the north, notice also when and where the major deepening occurs. You may see some of us talking about right entrance and left exit of jet streams being where surface systems deepen most rapridly. This is an instance where you can actually see it happening. See also the link below which is the infra red movie of the cloud systems over the Atlantic from Newfoundland into Europe. Not at about 2100 hours today the bright white strip south or about 50N running in from the far west. That is the jet.

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

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To those who comented on my post , i hope the storm is weaker than predicted , just getting a bit fed up of the hype, stay safe those on the south coast !

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Mainly good news really for people wanting to get to work on Monday morning.

True but can you imagine the backlash??!!

 

The Met Office wouldn't put out such definite alerts if they didn't think something was going to happen?

 

Then again, the 18z might have been on the ale again.

 

Let's just see what happens in FI, if there's either a super storm or a brutal north easterly, we can take it with a pinch of salt. :-D

 

I'm actually laughing right now :-P

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