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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

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Going to take a look at what each model shows tonight,First where they place the very center during the morning of Monday. The GFS, ECM, GME and JMA show it to be centered just to the West or South of Wales. UKMO, NAVGEM and GEM place the center inland over Northern parts of England and lastly NAE looks to be on its own placing the low furthest away from any other model.Low Center.pngThe models are over time getting better on its track but as I've pointed out above there's still some uncertainty of where exactly its going to be. It is a big step forward from 24 hours ago and I would imagine in 24 hours time we will see even better agreement.I'm going to go through what some of the models say,UKMO,Below are gust charts at 6am where the UKMO goes for the worst of the winds,Wales around 60mph,Wales.pngSouth West of England with top gusts just over 70mph,SW England.pngSouthern England inland parts gusts over 60mph possible and along to coasts 70 to 80mph,S England.pngSouth Eastern England over 60mph gusts inland and 70 to 80mph along the coasts,SE England.pngFor Eastern England at 9am 60 to 70mph and over 70mph for the coasts.E England.pngECM,6am wind chart on the ECM, I have highlighted the area's that are likely to see these wind speeds mentioned in the image below,ECM.png9am wind chart and again I've highlighted the area and mentioned the wind speeds in the image that the ECM shows,ECM2.pngGFS,6am shows average wind speeds in the channel reaching over 60mph as SW coasts could see 40 to 50mph average wind speeds.ukwind.png9am average wind speeds in the channel are shown to reach 65mph as for coastal areas 58mph average wind speeds.ukwind (1).png12pm Eastern and South Eastern coasts get 40 to 55mph average wind speeds.ukwind (2).pngI've put some images together for the rainfall to make it more clear and quicker to see,Rain.pngHeavy rain will affect Southern parts of England during Sunday evening and into early Monday. Northern England see's heavy rain later on at 9am.To all those in the path of this storm stay safe these wind speeds look very high even for some inland parts. Stay safe and be prepared.

Nice post WM well put.

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Michael Fish is gonna be on Sky News at 10am with Murnagham.

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Michael Fish is gonna be on Sky News at 10am with Murnagham.

I really hope he doesn't say anything he might regret on Monday evening! People so very easily misconstrue what a person says.

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A squall/lewp has just passed through here, i recorded a gust of 32mph (station is slightly protected) 69mm/hr rain rate, and it's not even half of what's to come on Sun/Mon. :O  

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And just to re affirm the NW Maximum Gust charts above, here's the latest from the Met Office. 

 

This is beginning to get very serious now !!

Posted Image

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Given how rapidly sting jets are supposed to develop, isn't it too soon to be saying whether one will do so or not?

I wasn't saying that. Just responding to a post suggesting that the winds of 40mph to hit the NW were due to a sting jet. A sting jet would be a lot more severe.

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i feel this storm is being media hyped , yes it has the potential to be damaging ,but come monday night we will be wondering what all the fuss was about .

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My own take this evening

 

Taking the latest Met O Fax as being the most reliable, okay I know this may not be the case but I will be pretty surprised if it’s not as close if not closer than anything else we see on the web). At 18z actual the 12z prediction for tomorrow, the 00z and 12z for Monday. The line is very close to what they suggested two days ago and there has been very little change in predicted positions or depths for 24 hours now. The track takes it 50N09W through about the middle of the Welsh coast in Cardigan Bay then on the same track to exit the Yorkshire coast about the Bridlington/Scarborough area, perhaps a shade further north maybe nearer Whitby as the scale is a bit small to be certain, along with my geography.

So the guidance being given by UK Met continues to seem spot on. Just how severe the winds will be south of the track, indeed how far south of the track before they reach damaging speeds is open to discussion but speeds of 50+mph with gusts of 75-80 inland seem possible, note possible, and maybe higher here and there in the more exposed areas. How much rain is again something open to discussion, enough to cause short term surface flooding as opposed to overflowing major rivers it would seem to me.

 

Looking at the output from GFS/ECMWF are there any marked differences?

ECMWF and UK Met are a few degrees ahead of GFS at 12z tomorrow, depths look about the same. By 00z Monday GFS and UK Met are fairly close to each other with ECMWF still a degree or two back on this position, depths around similar values on all 3. Thus the track looks about the right one shown on the Fax charts and commented on above. Some differences of 1-3 hours in when the maximum winds will thus occur but each model is probably suggesting about the same strengths and areas to be affected.

As for rainfall totals then both GFS and NAE show the heaviest falls to be SW-S coast and also further up along the west coast, GFS as far as SW Scotland, less so on NAE but this has a tongue from SWS to ENE towards the Humber. Not as heavy as for the S coast, SW where in excess of 40mm is being predicted.

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And just to re affirm the NW Maximum Gust charts above, here's the latest from the Met Office. 

 

This is beginning to get very serious now !!

Posted Image

and i'm the 83 to 86mph area

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On Sunday a low of 970mb will past over the far North of Scotland giving Ireland, Western Scotland, Wales and England gusts of 40 to 50mph and exposed parts are likely to reach 60mph during 7am to 8pm. Just as the winds start to ease down during Sunday evening just hours later Mondays storm starts to move in just before Midnight. 

Edited by weathermaster

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It looks like only 10% of England will see hurricane strength gusts on Monday morning - the south coast and Channel Islands is where they should be focusing the preparation and battening down the hatches. Elsewhere trees may fall but unlikely to be widespread damage etc

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Yep, im on isle of wight and the only thing surrounding my house is large open fields. Its gonna be noisy thats for sure.

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i feel this storm is being media hyped , yes it has the potential to be damaging ,but come monday night we will be wondering what all the fuss was about .

 

quite likely where you are, indeed almost certainly but then the far north of England was never really at risk. Further south especially southern districts of England there is a real danger of some damage to buildings let alone trees.

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also on the isle of wight and have to drive from cowes to shanklin for work on monday morning, should be interesting :) 

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I live on the edge of a forest and a ton of leaves have already fallen. The trees do sway already at 20mph winds. Is there anything I can do to stop the trees uprooting. We do have a large net surrounding the garden as I play a lot of football. Any answers would be useful.

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Winds getting gusty here (Slough).

Will be a fun car journey to work in Hemel Hempstead Monday AM.

 

Hope my friends will be safe in Selsey too!

 

Misses thinks I am over reacting, supporting the garden fence and removing loose objects and putting them away!!!!!

 

I said that the guinea pigs may have to come in also for the day!

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It looks like only 10% of England will see hurricane strength gusts on Monday morning - the south coast and Channel Islands is where they should be focusing the preparation and battening down the hatches. Elsewhere trees may fall but unlikely to be widespread damage etc

I certainly wouldn't be taking any warnings as gospel. With saturated ground it only takes winds of 50mph to take down trees. With gusts expected anywhere between 50-80mph inland, trees will certainly falls and roof tiles will fly. Expect the worst and hope for the best.

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i feel this storm is being media hyped , yes it has the potential to be damaging ,but come monday night we will be wondering what all the fuss was about .

Sorry but i have to disagree ,especially for us down south ! would love to be proved wrong thou

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I live on the edge of a forest and a ton of leaves have already fallen. The trees do sway already at 20mph winds. Is there anything I can do to stop the trees uprooting. We do have a large net surrounding the garden as I play a lot of football. Any answers would be useful.

Short of taking a chainsaw to them tomorrow, not a lot. If you want to avoid the netting getting damaged, could you take it down temporarily?

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