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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2


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Given how rapidly sting jets are supposed to develop, isn't it too soon to be saying whether one will do so or not?

Matt says he is expecting the poss of one

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Not sure if it has been brought up before, but here are the predicted sea states for inshore waters, with a further update tomorrow evening to come.

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Inshore waters forecast, taken from the BBC website.

 

Lyme Regis to Lands End including the Isles of Scilly

 

Strong wind warning

17:00 UTC Sun 27th Oct – 16:59 UTC Mon 28th Oct
  • [*]Wind
South or southwest veering west, 6 to gale 8, increasing severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 for a time. [*]Sea State Very rough or high, occasionally very high in far west at first, becoming rough or very rough later. [*]Weather Rain then squally showers. [*]Visibility Moderate or poor, occasionally good.

And then for those in the following area.

 

 
Lands End to St Davids Head including the Bristol Channel

 

Strong wind warning

17:00 UTC Sun 27th Oct – 16:59 UTC Mon 28th Oct
  • [*]
Wind Southwest becoming cyclonic, then northwest backing west later, 6 to gale 8, increasing severe gale 9 or storm 10 for a time. [*]Sea State Very rough or high, becoming rough in east later. [*]Weather Rain then squally showers. [*]Visibility Moderate or poor, occasionally good.

 

 

Worth noting that these are issued 24 hours in advance so tomorrow evening's update will be even more revealing. Posted Image

 

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slightly worried - have a "full" skip out the back after clearing the house of junk all day

 

I'm thinking either lots of bungies over the top - or a tight tarpaulin

 

worried about debris taking out neighbours cars ....

Haha, I thought that last line said about taking out neighbours cats! Thankfully they have enough sense to stay in if they have a litter tray.

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Sorry but I want this system to be as strong and severe as the very worst charts have predicted. Maybe it is just me but for the life of me I just cannot see the point of being a weather enthusiast / nerd without the promise of extreme weather potential. Isn't that that what most of us are in it for? I accept there are some posting who genuinely want it to pass without incident but what's the point of getting all excited then saying but I hope it's not as bad as that chart is showing...

 

Yes trees may get blown over, some cars destroyed and people even hurt or killed. Now it goes without saying that the less of that (obviously moreso the latter), the better but... it my eyes it is collateral damage. I say bring on the 90+mph gusts, bring on the sting jet, bring on the tornados, bring on the the worst storm since 1987!!! There, now I've said it.

 

Agree for your area if you want it, good luck, hope you get it, but not for me thank you, it can stay away from the NW Midlands, I am dreading the washout, but I dont think the wind will be out of the ordinary for the NW Midlands, well 'ope not anyway

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I agree with s4lancia on everything apart from people getting killed! stuff is stuff and it can be replaced but no one wants something where your own family are in danger.

I want this storm to be as powerful and dangerous as possible but without anyone getting hurt. I know this is unlikely but I suppose nature will take it's course and nothing can change that.

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Sorry but I want this system to be as strong and severe as the very worst charts have predicted. Maybe it is just me but for the life of me I just cannot see the point of being a weather enthusiast / nerd without the promise of extreme weather potential. Isn't that that what most of us are in it for? I accept there are some posting who genuinely want it to pass without incident but what's the point of getting all excited then saying but I hope it's not as bad as that chart is showing...

 

Yes trees may get blown over, some cars destroyed and people even hurt or killed. Now it goes without saying that the less of that (obviously moreso the latter), the better but... it my eyes it is collateral damage. I say bring on the 90+mph gusts, bring on the sting jet, bring on the tornados, bring on the the worst storm since 1987!!! There, now I've said it.

 

Indeed, yes we have no control over Mother Nature and I guess, with climate change, the reality of more severe weather having an impact is increasing. What, we don't want is people literally putting their lives at risk. Just don't expect much help from the emergency services should oneself get in trouble. Having said all that, the storm chaser in me wants to see some quality footage as it roars across the mainland.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Its quite possible that Heathrow may operate through the night on Sunday night/Monday morning and do-away with the night flying restrictions for one day. This is to allow eastbound transatlantic traffic to land early, ahead of the main windfield. I understand this decision is still pending. There will be delays, thats already been accepted as the landing rate will be reduced - the same can be said for other airports in the south east. I know that a number of London airports are not taking diversions, so if you can't get in to one of the London airports you'll likely end up at Birmingham/East Mids/Manchester or further north.

 

Not that it affects me but if I lived nearby I'd be livid if they could disturb me at night when this has been known for such a long time.

 

Either divert or don't take off in the first place.

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On behalf of those of us with relatives who would presumably class as "collateral damage", I couldn't agree with you less!

okay, the collateral damage thing was probably to much, but everything else i agree with to be honest, I hope nobody gets injured, although it's unlikely, but I am really looking forward to this, I, like all of us am just a mere mortal, so we are all in the same boat, this is coming whether we like it or not, I for one will be embracing it to the fullest!!

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Poor weather conditions forecast on Sunday 27 and Monday 28 October

 

Route affected

 

Most routes across central and southern England and Wales

 

Train operating compaines affected

 

Arriva Trains WalesChiltern RailwaysCrossCountryEast Midlands TrainsFirst Great WesternFirst Hull TrainsFirst TransPennine ExpressGrand CentralHeathrow ConnectHeathrow ExpressLondon MidlandLondon OvergroundNorthern RailVirgin Trains

 

Description

 

Heavy rain and high winds are forecast across central and southern England and Wales on Sunday night and into Monday. This may mean that some trains are delayed or cancelled, and some Train Operators are running amended timetables. Road conditions are also expected to be hazardous, so please allow extra time to reach the station and allow extra time for connecting trains. The following train operators have confirmed either amended timetables or the possibility of amended timetables. Please use the links for the latest information:

  • [*]
c2c [*]East Coast [*]First Capital Connect [*]Greater Anglia & Stansted Express [*]South West Trains [*]Southeastern [*]Southern & Gatwick Express

http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service_disruptions/60152.aspx

 

 

 

 

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Not sure if it has been brought up before, but here are the predicted sea states for inshore waters, with a further update tomorrow evening to come.

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Inshore waters forecast, taken from the BBC website.

 

Lyme Regis to Lands End including the Isles of Scilly

 

Strong wind warning

17:00 UTC Sun 27th Oct – 16:59 UTC Mon 28th Oct

[*]Wind South or southwest veering west, 6 to gale 8, increasing severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 for a time.

[*]Sea State Very rough or high, occasionally very high in far west at first, becoming rough or very rough later.

[*]Weather Rain then squally showers.

[*]Visibility Moderate or poor, occasionally good.

And then for those in the following area.

 

 
Lands End to St Davids Head including the Bristol Channel

 

Strong wind warning

17:00 UTC Sun 27th Oct – 16:59 UTC Mon 28th Oct

[*]Wind Southwest becoming cyclonic, then northwest backing west later, 6 to gale 8, increasing severe gale 9 or storm 10 for a time.

[*]Sea State Very rough or high, becoming rough in east later.

[*]Weather Rain then squally showers.

[*]Visibility Moderate or poor, occasionally good.

 

 

Worth noting that these are issued 24 hours in advance so tomorrow evening's update will be even more revealing. Posted Image

You should have posted those in the Western thread not the South East!

Oh dear, Oh dear! So sorry GTLTW, I am mixing up the threads now. Forgot this is the severe storm one. VERY humble apologies, please blame in on my old age and too many tabs open.Posted Image

Edited by coldfingers
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ecm 12z op brings s coast winds around 30m/s to lyme bay and 27m/s to brighton.  thats quite a mean wind speed of 65 mph for lyme bay and would surely see gusting approaching 90 mph.

 

Interesting, especially for me being from a village 3 miles from Lyme bay.

 

This looks a bit concerning for home in East Devon, mean winds over 40 knots inland.. wonder what the gusts would be inland

post-7593-0-79813400-1382818106_thumb.pn

Would pass through pretty quick though, maybe only last half an hour looking at that chart..

 

A bit typical that anything like this always happens when I'm not at home. Not sure how much I'd want winds that strong or stronger, but If It's gunna happen and do whatever it does anyway I'd love to be at home to experience it.

 

But then again, I have an advantage being here at uni, as at home the strongest wind will probably occur in the hours of darkness, so I would just hear it but not see a lot, whereas when they reach here it will be daylight

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Jill Attenborough, of the Woodland Trust, said 15 million UK trees fell in 1987 

!!!! Makes me more than a little concerned!! Even 1/10th of that number falling will cause chaos on Monday

 

Got to remember that well over half of the diseased Ash are tiny saplings planted for the Jubilee Woodlands scheme. It seems the Woodland Trust sourced 3 million of the 6 million ash they planted from Continental nurseries... DOH!

 

I'm forever pulling them out of flowerbeds so it's not as though we can't supply our own. Like 1987, the worst will be the shallow rooted like beech. they just tip over and bring up the whole root bole if the ground's wet.

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What are the likely outcomes of being right underneath the passing place of the low? I imagine the wind will be less here, but iv been reading up on sting jets and im currently hoping for one of them to occur. 

Edited by ChezzieStorms
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10406523/Storm-warning-keep-999-lines-free-during-hurricane-force-winds-say-police.htmlTHE TELEGRAPH:Storm warning: keep 999 lines free during hurricane-force winds, say policePublic must not clog up 999 lines with non-emergencies during the impending 'St Jude's' storm, say police, as forecasters predict hurricane-forcewinds of 80mph or more 

Edited by Paul
Snipped - best not to copy entire articles
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