Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

[Mapantz]

Confused, someone says strongest winds now over France (NAE) then someone else posts a pic (NAE) showing strongest winds over South East. Can someone discount one or both ??

Personally, i'm not a fan of the NAE, it's been wrong on too many occasions. I wouldn't discount it but i'd rather take more notice of the other models, and the info that Ian Fergusson relays in here.

[london-snow]

I will be climbing up my garden tree in my underpants with a bottle of red wine shouting at the storm "come on storm is this the best you've got, you cannot defeat me" funny mental image anyway!

Me thinks that you've watched a bit too much of forrest gump.

[radiohead]

UKMO 971mb

 

[Bill davis]

The GFS may have the wind speed correct but maybe not the track? If it takes the track the MO are backing, you can understand the concern. 

and if it takes the track GFS 12z is suggesting, there will be frogs scattered all over eastern Europe!

[Tamara]

Confused, someone says strongest winds now over France (NAE) then someone else posts a pic (NAE) showing strongest winds over South East. Can someone discount one or both ??

It will be intesrting to hear the next update maybe from Ian F on what the METO think because there is already a disparity of positioning of the low by Monday morning with the NAE much more progressive in exiting the strongest winds east of the UK by as early as 9am, with the low already close to the Humber. The GFS on the other hand has the low just exiting the Bristol channel!

 

The UKMO is somewhere inbetween with the low over central/northern England. I would guess that NAE is out of kilter once more as it was this morning

Edited October 26, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Evening thunder]

GFS high res bringing northern coasts of France more into the firing line now potential there for gusts of over 90mph, those close to the southern coasts are worst affected still the main concern still looks to be the Kent area where wind gusts could top 80mph for a time

 

 

By 15:00 wind speeds start to ease for all ease

 

Looks pretty similar to the 06z to me just with the winds a bit stronger. Certainly not a shift south from the GFS at least.

Northern France doesn't really look stronger than S/SE England to me. Although the strongest winds don't effect other areas so much.

 

Also the GFS may show the low slightly deeper after it exits the UK, but the isobars look just as tight over southern/SE England than any time east of us.

 

It could be weaker and the worst could go south of the UK, though that probably isn't too likely now. Looking like a notable event for some of the south and SE, although not on the levels of the Oct 1987 storm, or that a few posts have said or the usual culprits in the media 

[Team Jo]

Warm and *windy* welcome to all new posters! It's set to be an interesting waiting game for the next 24-48 hours.

For everyone's reference, Please could you pop your location into your profile? Also don't forget there are dedicated regional threads for you to connect with posters local to you and share weather info and updates

[Summer Sun]

Confused, someone says strongest winds now over France (NAE) then someone else posts a pic (NAE) showing strongest winds over South East. Can someone discount one or both ??

 

Currently the met office have 78mph as the highest gust for Brighton

 

 

By lunchtime the gusts are slowly easing

 

[stewfox]

Okay meet me on the Penzance pier holding a kite

 

Was planning to hold a beginner's  kite flying event on Monday morning on the beach in West Cornwall, might have to cancel.

[ANYWEATHER]

http://www.worcestershireweather.com.. Just a few thoughts on my take on the forth coming storm..

[Summer Sun]

UKMO 12z out now, looks like around 970mb

 

 

Pulls away slowly during the afternoon

 

 

Tuesday see's things becoming calmer and by Wednesday high pressure is edging up from the south with the north getting the windier conditions

 

[knocker]

Hi all, great site, found it through weather watch uk on fb.Anyway, driving at 6am from Ramsgate (where we live) to Le shuttle on Monday morning. When in Calais we are driving through to a centre parcs in Holland. I know it's going to be a possibly hazardous drive, is there any chance this storm will be following us to our destination?Bloody typical, would happen with this timing ;-) Thanks

 

Gusts

Edited October 26, 2013 by knocker

[Iceberg]

Latest Meto isn't good news for southern counties as it brings the real strong winds onshore from the channel. GFS to a largish extent agrees in the higher res range.

So pretty good agreement that the worst of the winds will be portland, dorset and then south and east from a line along the A303 to M25. Areas within this range, i/e dorset, hampshire, surrey, kent (and god forbid for the media parts of London) might well see wind gusts of 80-90mph, a bit further north of this line and its the 60-80 range. Along the very coastal areas in exposed i certainly wouldnt rule out a 100mph gust.

 

NAE has changed again a bit and doesnt really get a good handle of the storm imho pre T24.

 

ECM will be interesting tonight but of limited use at the key timeframe will be between the T24 and T48 charts.

[Snowangel-MK]

Here is a recent image of the developing storm in the Atlantic. The line of cloud is following the jet stream but the part that is of most interest to us is inside the yellow circle. The line of cloud is now starting to develop due to fast tracking Jet Stream. To the south of that circle will start to pull towards right, whilst to the north of that circle will pull towards the left, eventually causing an anti-clockwise spiral like the system inside the red circle. It's how this system develops in the next 24-36 hours which will determine how bad things will get on Monday.

Recent image of the developing Storm

Courtesy of London and the South East Weather Facebook

[radiohead]

12Z HIRLAM seems to have upgaded the winds along the southwest coast futher. A couple of mb more intense too. 966mb.

 

Edited October 26, 2013 by radiohead

[ARTDEMOLE]

Still looking at storm force 11....

[Gael_Force]

Latest Meto isn't good news for southern counties as it brings the real strong winds onshore from the channel. GFS to a largish extent agrees in the higher res range.

So pretty good agreement that the worst of the winds will be portland, dorset and then south and east from a line along the A303 to M25. Areas within this range, i/e dorset, hampshire, surrey, kent (and god forbid for the media parts of London) might well see wind gusts of 80-90mph, a bit further north of this line and its the 60-80 range. Along the very coastal areas in exposed i certainly wouldnt rule out a 100mph gust.

 

NAE has changed again a bit and doesnt really get a good handle of the storm imho pre T24.

 

ECM will be interesting tonight but of limited use at the key timeframe will be between the T24 and T48 charts.

 

You'll get 3 hourly increments on the Icelandic site after the run is complete.

[Julesthecat]

and if it takes the track GFS 12z is suggesting, there will be frogs scattered all over eastern Europe!

[Iceberg]

You'll get 3 hourly increments on the Icelandic site after the run is complete.

Absolutely right I'd forgot that

[stubbys]

Gusts

Thanks knocker, looks lively then, good job we're going by tunnel and not ferry as they'll be cancelled.

[Sainsbo]

The media don't seem to be doing a good job with this. Sky news just had someone on talking about it who completely down played it, saying that it happens every couple of years. Switch over to the BBC and they say that we are facing "one of the worst storms in 20 years". No wonder the public never know who to believe!

Edited October 26, 2013 by Sainsbo

[Wilxy]

The media don't seem to be doing a good job with this. Sky news just had someone on talking about it who completely down played it, saying that it happens every couple of years. Switch over to the BBC and they say that we are facing "one of the worst storms in 20 years". No wonder the public never know who to believe!

 

It hasn't happened yet could go either way at this range still!

[Moleyroley]

I'm on Portland Dorset ! I have a feeling were going to be hit badly 😳

[Sainsbo]

It hasn't happened yet could go either way at this range still!

 

Completely true, it would just be nice if it was possible to get an unbiased report from one of the media outlets without scaremongering or downplaying.

[Mark Neal.]

I'm on Portland Dorset ! I have a feeling were going to be hit badly

Yes, certainly in the firing line. Gusts of 70mph for you guys!