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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

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A new thread to continue discussion of the potential for a severe storm on Sunday 27th into Monday 28th October 2013

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First in from southwest trains:

 

Severe Weather Warning 28 October

 

The Met Office is projecting that severe weather will affect areas of Southern England on Monday 28 October.

The risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and equipment is high. These conditions present risks to the railway from localised flooding, fallen trees and debris on the tracks.

Our maintenance teams are visiting our high-risk sites over the weekend to carry out mitigation work for both flooding and fallen trees. We have also arranged for additional staff to be present across the network at key locations.

All areas of our network are subject to these conditions with the highest risk areas being on the lines between Weymouth and Basingstoke via Southampton and between Portsmouth and Guildford.

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Lands End to St Davids Head including the Bristol Channel - Strong winds are forecast

24 hour forecast: South or southwest 6 to gale 8, occasionally 5 at first. Moderate or rough, becoming rough or very rough later in west. Rain or squally showers. Good, becoming poor for a time.

Outlook: South or southwest, veering west or northwest later, 6 to gale 8, increasing severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 for a time later. Rough or very rough, becoming high for a time in west. Rain or squally showers. Moderate or good becoming moderate or poor.

Best put some extra ropes on my boat today!!

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GFS throwing the worst forwards again:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Gust speeds creeping back as well:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Coast, moisture vectors are of the chart!!

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0Z ECM.

 

966mb at 9am Monday.

 

Posted Image

 

3 hours later, 962mb as it emerges over the North Sea.

 

Posted Image

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NMM have it more confined to Southern coasts at first, still very potent here and then it curls inland more during Monday morning:

 

post-6667-0-52720900-1382773016_thumb.pn  post-6667-0-35526800-1382773021_thumb.pn

 

Yet again a continuation of the things from NMM with the timing going back into Monday more, the South coast still gets a battering as it has on almost every run of most models for days.

 

 

 

 

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NMM have it more confined to Southern coasts at first, still very potent here and then it curls inland more during Monday morning:

 

Posted ImageNMM gusts 281013 09z.png  Posted ImageNMM gusts 281013 12z.png

 

Yet again a continuation of the things from NMM with the timing going back into Monday more, the South coast still gets a battering as it has on almost every run of most models for days.

 

And then there is the possibility of stronger winds at the 925mb level getting brought down to surface at times, something that gust charts based on pressure gradient don't show.

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Computer says ..."Be Prepared", so as well as an afternoon out with the kids, and trying to drag myself away from the laptop and netweather ...I suppose It'd be prudent to do as the met office suggest.

 

Without going overboard, I'm thinking of a recce around the garden to secure bits and bobs etc, getting torches, candles, and matches sorted and sharpening my chainsaw. Any other ideas?

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Coast, moisture vectors are of the chart!!

 

Fuel for longevity in the jet?

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This mornings charts have shifted things south as Derby now looks to miss this with a bog standard wet and windy day here. Things look serious to the south of the UK though, especially on the south coast and then the SE later. Infact, the SE could have the strongest winds of all with Kent the likely place to see the highest gusts.

 

For me, the winds tonight look more intense than Sunday night/Monday with gusts around the 50-60mph mark.

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I have just done my recce round the garden,and ordered a non electrical phone for £4 from argos (assuming phone lines don't go down too!)

I am rural so power and phone are all above ground and swing like skipping ropes in high winds.

for kids get them to keep all hand held things like DS,or PSP so they have something to keep amused for a while with,and dig out car chargers for mobiles.

I haven't had the potential for significant power issues for quite some years,but is filling the kettle and a few pans for tea sensible?

I am ok as we have calor gas....so sadly I shall still be having to cook!

Its my mission for today to ensure the washing is up to date and the dishwasher has no backlog,just in case those wonderful things wont work!

maybe if you are reliant on mains for cooking perhaps if you have a camping stove,dig it out and make sure its got gas so you can have a brew?

Edited by starstream

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Fuel for longevity in the jet?

 

Quite possible Coast.. 

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"Significant Tornado Parameter" - sounds like a silly question, but what does this mean?

 

Showing the Benelux and East of England in black 50>. Does this mean the chances of a significant tornado within a point, are 50% or above?

 

The ingredients are there; could be one of the strongest tornadoes ever recorded in the UK possibly on Monday?

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"Significant Tornado Parameter" - sounds like a silly question, but what does this mean?

 

Showing the Benelux and East of England in black 50>. Does this mean the chances of a significant tornado within a point, are 50% or above?

 

The ingredients are there; could be one of the strongest tornadoes ever recorded in the UK possibly on Monday?

 

Pretty much:

 

 

Significant Tornado Parameter is a composite index based on deep layer and low level 
shear, CAPE, CIN and LCL height. It highlights regions where these ingredients for 
tornadoes come together most, although it does not tell which necessary ingredient may 
be lacking most. Composite indices cannot replace a detailed analysis, but serve well as 
an alert to the forecaster.

 

 

http://lightningwizard.com/maps/ConvectiveWeatherMaps.pdf

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Certainly a risk of some tornadoes on Monday.

 

Although I thought the colours related to shear, the lines relate to tornado parameter/risk. So blue lines around the chart (as they are) relate to a small risk of tornadoes. Correct me if I am wrong.

 

post-2719-0-34352700-1382774833_thumb.pn

 

Edited by Supacell

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NMM have it more confined to Southern coasts at first, still very potent here and then it curls inland more during Monday morning:

 

Posted ImageNMM gusts 281013 09z.png  Posted ImageNMM gusts 281013 12z.png

 

Yet again a continuation of the things from NMM with the timing going back into Monday more, the South coast still gets a battering as it has on almost every run of most models for days.

Looks like cornwall is the worst place.(I live there)

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Our little town of Deal is in the process of having the beach replenished again after they failed last year and it all washed away. Got a feeling the same is going to happen.

Edited by wchris_uk

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Not been around much, but this storm has peaked my interest (that and that fact I've broken by leg and so am lying down with nothing to do ! )

Anyway, still considerable difference re position, intensity and timing as the two charts from nae an GFS show below. IMHO multi run ENS are less good at handling this situation.

Just a few general thoughts from me, most of the wind graph products will show avg winds over the 1hr-3hr period, not max winds, 950 winds will almost certainly come down in gusts since pressure will be 970-980mb, and 925 will likely come down at times, Given this I would expect winds speeds, sustained over 30 seconds of 75kts over South dorset, IOW, hampshire and it looks more and more likely up through the SE. Gusts 5-10secs possibly 10kt higher. With 1-5min avgs of 45-50kt at times.

As the Meto point out though the danger zone certainly goes all the  way to the M4 and upto the midlands depending on track.

Given the wettish ground and still leafy trees in the south, not to mention the lack of any real winds in the last few and damage could be quite severe.

There is still also a chance of a GEM scenario or sub 965 storm which could well be as bad as 1987 if it tracks right.

post-6326-0-73520300-1382774697_thumb.gi

post-6326-0-04525600-1382774720_thumb.gi

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"Significant Tornado Parameter" - sounds like a silly question, but what does this mean?

 

Showing the Benelux and East of England in black 50>. Does this mean the chances of a significant tornado within a point, are 50% or above?

 

The ingredients are there; could be one of the strongest tornadoes ever recorded in the UK possibly on Monday?

 

The black areas on the map refer to wind shear above 50 knots. The 'tornado parameters' are the coloured blue lines.

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Certainly a risk of some tornadoes on Monday.

 

Jet stream + unseasonably mild weather + wind shear + low pressure system.

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Today is the day we find out if the met office goes red.

Since i live in cornwall and on a hill the winds will be stronger.Posted Image

Edited by Skulltheruler

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Computer says ..."Be Prepared", so as well as an afternoon out with the kids, and trying to drag myself away from the laptop and netweather ...I suppose It'd be prudent to do as the met office suggest.

 

Without going overboard, I'm thinking of a recce around the garden to secure bits and bobs etc, getting torches, candles, and matches sorted and sharpening my chainsaw. Any other ideas?

Batten down any hatches?

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Jet stream + unseasonably mild weather + wind shear + low pressure system.

 

+ helicity Posted Image 

 

post-2719-0-61606200-1382775027_thumb.pn

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The low can now be tracked as it crosses the Atlantic using web sites with surface data, or infra red satellite shots, both stills and moview camera types. As it nears the UK then some weather buoys will aloow us to see how rapidly it is deepening before it comes on to land.

 

this for its probable position although it is a computer generated chart and can sometimes show wrong positions but by watching it hour to hour one can discount any erroneous plots.

http://meteocentre.c...ang=en&area=eur

 

The buoy data here

http://www.ndbc.noaa...ps/France.shtml

 

and sat data

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/auth.html

you will need to register but it is free

this one allows you to follow its movement in real time

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

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