Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Coast

Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

Recommended Posts

Jesus if the 18z was right that would be embarrassing!!

 

Embarassing would be an understatement after the amount of forwarnings thus far if this turns out to be a bust.

 

As others have hinted....this must be Pub run up to its tricks again!

Edited by scotteboi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why? This low was always going to be a nightmare to forecast, what are the UKMO supposed to do when all the models progged a storm? They had no choice but to put up warnings, anyway I'd wait till tomorrow because you can see the volatility with this if you get this much difference between outputs.

If it doesn't happen, there'll be Michael Fish on the tv telling everyone a hurricane force storm is coming (or just plain hurricane according to the red tops) And then it doesn't happen!!

Ofc the Met Office and everyones else will be discredited, it'll be the most awful thing ever!

 

On the bright side, no-one would die in the 18z low :-D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks downgraded on the 18z but is this possible so soon after weather alert updates were issued on here? They were issued about an hour ago..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry but I want this system to be as strong and severe as the very worst charts have predicted. Maybe it is just me but for the life of me I just cannot see the point of being a weather enthusiast / nerd without the promise of extreme weather potential. Isn't that that what most of us are in it for? I accept there are some posting who genuinely want it to pass without incident but what's the point of getting all excited then saying but I hope it's not as bad as that chart is showing...Yes trees may get blown over, some cars destroyed and people even hurt or killed. Now it goes without saying that the less of that (obviously moreso the latter), the better but... it my eyes it is collateral damage. I say bring on the 90+mph gusts, bring on the sting jet, bring on the tornados, bring on the the worst storm since 1987!!! There, now I've said it.

Agree. When you watch weather the extremes draw you. It does not mean as some seem to imply in response to you that we hope anyone is hurt but the raw power of mother nature is something to behold. Mark Vogan fesses his fascination started with the 87 storm (mine was an 83 snowstorm), which I recall well for putting the tree in my garden at 45 degrees (next doors tree grew at 22 deg after) and the multiple cars whacked I saw to the way to school (a half day). It does not mean we want anyone hurt nor facing big bills from damage (last years mild storms took out my fence, 06 another) but we do not live in benign climate. These storms are not that unusual despite the decade long gaps that may occur. It is also part of the natural order removing weaker trees etc (The Great British Year on the the beeb suggested trees developed the structure they have and in part shed leaves because of autumn storms). Prepare, be safe by all means but there is nothing wrong with enjoying the weather (we can hardly change it) - those lovely heatwaves so beloved of many on the model forum (and I say this passing no judgement) are killer indoors or out. We should put it in perspective as well - it's not exactly that much of deal when compared to those who deal annually with several intense tropical systems over the otherside of the Atlantic or the Pacific (poor Japan). I lived on the equator for many years and I have yet to see anything here (North excluded) that has come close matching the intensity of a passing squall (less wind but sheer volume of rain is something else). Believe me, having experienced weather in many places globally, we British have it very easy compared to many others around the globe. As Joe Bastardi says 'Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got.' Stay safe everyone.
  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If it doesn't happen, there'll be Michael Fish on the tv telling everyone a hurricane force storm is coming (or just plain hurricane according to the red tops) And then it doesn't happen!!

Ofc the Met Office and everyones else will be discredited, it'll be the most awful thing ever!

 

On the bright side, no-one would die in the 18z low :-D

 

but we will get wet, 18Z to me looks a washout for midlands, and if it was a winter month, I reckon the 18Z would give heavy snow, to our members above 300m asl, Terminal Moraine and polar maritime,

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh dear... last minute flop?

 

Just like those failed easterlys inside 48 hours Posted Image

 

In all seriousness though, the 18z is a perfectly plausible solution.

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We no need to be dissapointed we got another full day ahead of us yet.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If this update is right, the Met office are going to be massively discredited :-(

 

If this update is correct I'll give up forecasting for good!

 

Interesting on bbc news today with an interview with simon  keeling regarding the storm of 87 he said the Met Office had tracked this storm for FIVE  days but at "the last minute it changed course".......................

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

News 24 (yes I know not the most accurate of sources) started by saying severe storm sun night into Monday, then went as far as forecasting up until roughly 4pm tomorrow. Maybe they saw the 18z too 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You can say what you like. This output is still a big factor and I expect the UKMO and ECM to downgrade 'slightly' tomorrow.

And BTW I'm gutted. Was hoping this was gonna be the real deal :( .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think its great news if this whole storm implodes completely. If it turns out to be the 18hrs is correct then I think it would be a good idea for the weather presenters to give a clear explanation as to why this didn't develop. Anything that embarrasses the Daily Express is fine by me as that paper doesn't even deserve to grace the bottom of a cat litter tray!

Didn't the weather presenters explain why the 1987 storm happened, and they still got it in the neck. The poor meteorologists always get it in the neck.

 

It's a shame that they are always seen as 'crying wolf' , look at what's happened to the seasonal forecasts? :-( 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting on bbc news today with an interview with simon  keeling regarding the storm of 87 he said the Met Office had tracked this storm for FIVE  days but at "the last minute it changed course".......................

partially correct; Met model was near enough spot on until the last 24 hours then had a hiccup with French and German models giving a better handle on it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well at least theres a chance of somthing next weekend............

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12Z GFS shows convective gust potential right at the top of the scale for the far south east, 90 knots.

 

Posted Image

May I ask what a convective guest is?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Meanwhile, after it's wobble this morning, the 18Z NAE is showing a 970mb low with some tightly squeezed isobars over the southeast.

 

Posted Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why i was waiting for this storm to 'actually' develop, before i went into full blown storm prep mode

Now, i've got to cool my heels again... damn GFS

See what the morning brings (long night)

 

Trouble is, with the clocks going back one hour... it's one extra hour for more of the models to backtrack

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z NAE showing some extremely tight isobars over South East for Monday rush hour;

post-12721-0-47832200-1382825031_thumb.jpost-12721-0-38393500-1382825024_thumb.j

Edited by AWD

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well we have winds currently gusting to 49mph. So I would be very surprised indeed if tomorrow and Monday is any less that that, I think the GFS has had to much too drink, it is the 'pub' run after all.

Looks like it will be hard to sleep tonight anyway with a Force 9 wind blowing.

Edited by coldfingers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×