Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

[Radiating Dendrite]

If it comes off as shown on the GFS this would still be an event for the South Coast with some severe gales still likely. The main downgrade is for inland locations...... good as far as I am concerned.

Being a homeowner has given me a whole new perspective on Windstorms! Snow is not going to send a chimney crashing through my roof!

[radiohead]

For what it's worth, the 0Z HIRLAM is still showing a very intense storm, a 963mb low crossing the UK. However I do think this is maybe due to it using 12Z ECM data, and I would not be surprise to see this change on the next run.

 

[Decee]

So are we off or on or on or off? i'm reading it's possibly weakening but I go outside and something just doesn't feel right, It feels like there is a monster on the way.

[TwisterGirl81]

If this has downgraded I'll be very disappointed, I'm not going to lie, I was looking forward to it, last winter was all about downgrades for my location in Devon, I was looking forward to some interesting whether....I'm sure it's just a glitch...

[tollgateiow]

Latest shipping forecast for Wight is grim....

"Wight

Gale warnings - Issued: 0341 UTC Sun 27 Oct

Southwesterly severe gale force 9 increasing violent storm force 11 later

Shipping Forecast - Issued: 0405 UTC Sun 27 Oct

Wind

Southwest 7 to severe gale 9, increasing viloent storm 11, perhaps hurricane force 12 later.

Sea State

Rough or very rough, becoming high.

Weather

Thundery showers, then rain.

Visibility

Good, becoming poor."

[Jan]

The BBC forecast and news are still going for it, wasn't quite awake for the forecast but it showed 80mph gusts for the South and Wales and some heavy rain extending up to my area

[NO LONGER POSTING]

How many times are we told to not take one run?? Yeah so there is a downgrade? Okay.. So your going to take that and let that computer model predict a very hard set up.. It could all change come 4 hours before.. Plus.. Not all models are on board with this idea personally come later we will be having the same runs as yesterday..

[Dan the Man]

If this does turn into a damp squib, surely the credibility of the technology need to be questioned. The scientists need to have a rethink.

 

How many times in the last few years have we seen "mega" models, only to be massively downgraded close to the event. Yes, I know its extremely difficult to predict a weather system that hasn't formed and obviously the UK is one of the most difficult parts of the world to forecast, but even so, the amount of money spent on the computers surely should return better.

 

That said, its one minor blip which totally goes against the grain. The 06Z and 12Z should give us a far better idea.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Dan the Man

[bridgechad]

Rain already been heavy here this morning. More to come for us as well

[Barbmac]

Just watched the forecast on the BBC news with Matt Taylor and it's all 'on' as far as I could see with 70-80 gusts still forecast, even up to 90! So the MetO is still portraying this as a severe storm event.

 

Edit: the MetO, not the media! We know how some can ramp this type of event.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Barbmac

[Jan]

It's not the 'megastorm' as in certain media but it is a severe autumn storm and like they where saying all along yesterday 'possible' is the key word

[radiohead]

A big downgrade from the NWS. More southerly track, they've dropped the "rapidly intensifying". 984mb over the UK and instead of "hurricane force" they now only label it as "developing storm".

 

 

[tollgateiow]

Just watched the forecast on the BBC news with Matt Taylor and it's all 'on' as far as I could see with 70-80 gusts still forecast, even up to 90! So the MetO is still portraying this as a severe storm event. Edit: the MetO, not the media! We know how some can ramp this type of event.

Yes I saw it too, his report half an hour earlier said 60-70 mph gusts with some places seeing 80mph so they must haver some newer info in.

[galacticwarrior]

I hope this won't be a huge farce because then I would've wasted my whole weekend waiting for some fish to enjoy high winds ._.

[Polar Maritime]

To think....we was all getting excited about something that existed in a computer. 

 

And they say machines haven't taken over the world ??

 

What a complete let down, looks like I'll be going into work on Monday after all, head hanging in shame feeling like a  complete idiot. 

 

I blame the government who have probably been flying planes doing some sort of cloud seeding or something to make sure this didn't evolve into a monster, as it would have cost them too much in lost profit had it hit 

 

the moral is never to get excited about something that doesn't exist !!!

 

It's not happened yet !

 

All still on as forecast this morning. Just maybe not the extreme version, who knows, plenty of time yet for more flipflop's in the charts

 

Read all the warnings and forecasts and take note of RJS, not one model run for now.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Tedward1982]

Do not understand the feeling here this morning, it is one run, the Met Office are looking to review their warnings this morning so will wait to see what they say about it. I still have hope this will turn in to something rather than be a damp squib. 

[Paul]

Another set of posts removed - please don't respond to those who appear to be just looking to court controversy and provoke reaction - just hit the report button and we can deal with it

[Lincs Observation]

Well i don't understand whats going on here, The BBC have this as the main headline on the news backed up with the weather forecasters input so obviously either they are still worried about the impacts or the news of a downgrade has still not filtered into the newsroom.

 

LO

[Evening thunder]

doh computer froze before posting now forum hasn't saved my images, hopefully I'll post what I wanted to soon.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Stormmad26

[West is Best]

Surely if this was a snow event we wouldn't be using GFS / ECM much this close in but switching to UKMO Fax charts? Those fax charts don't look downgraded to me.

 

Nevertheless we will need to see how the runs pan out today. It's worth bearing in mind with a Jet Sting that the development can be very rapid, hence the way in which forecasters were caught out in 1987. We're still talking about a storm that hasn't yet formed, after all.

[radiohead]

I have a feeling the mods will have their work cut out for them today.

 

As for TV forecasts, there is always going to be lag between when the models come out and any changes that will be made. The ECM just finished rolling out 20 minutes ago, and the Met Office will be taking time to study the output carefully as well as looking at real time observations.

 

There will surely be a change in forecasts later this morning though, considering how the models have shifted overnight...

[orcacrew]

Conditions on wave bouy sw Ireland. Big ground sea incoming!!

Conditions at 62081 as of

0600 GMT on 10/27/2013:

Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last 24 hours of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 260 deg true )

Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts

Wave Height (WVHT): 37.4 ft

Average Period (APD): 12 sec

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.24 in

Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.03 in ( Rising )

Air Temperature (ATMP): 56.8 °F

Dew Point (DEWP): 51.8 °F

Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[That ECM]

Well i don't understand whats going on here, The BBC have this as the main headline on the news backed up with the weather forecasters input so obviously either they are still worried about the impacts or the news of a downgrade has still not filtered into the newsroom. LO

It is a volatile and ever changing picture as is usual in situations of intense weather. As such, output will give indications to the outcome, track and severity. Output will always change but the weather will do what ever it wishes. I for one would be happy for it not to be extreme but my preference is as irrelevant as anyone's.

[anything-but]

If the "predicted" event happens ,we get the show,if not then even better!

 

I think i`ll get the other half to bake some "special" brownies and pass then around the thread,some here need to relax a tad....it is sunday after all!

 

 

.............Now,back to the models.

[Jo Farrow]

Surely if this was a snow event we wouldn't be using GFS / ECM much this close in but switching to UKMO Fax charts? Those fax charts don't look downgraded to me.

 

Nevertheless we will need to see how the runs pan out today. It's worth bearing in mind with a Jet Sting that the development can be very rapid, hence the way in which forecasters were caught out in 1987. We're still talking about a storm that hasn't yet formed, after all.

The sting jet is looking less likely and that part is being subdued in MO forecasts, alhtough you are right the dev. is very rapid.

Even knowing about Sting Jets etc is part of the development and research that came out of the 87 storm, so now there is far more data to watch the potential develop. The wave/ low is forming now, see image in 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78270-sunday-monday-storm-latest-from-the-netweather-team/