Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

[Mark Griffin]

don't know much about this stuff but isn't that it developing on the top right?  sorry if I'm wrong

I think thats a precursory low pressure.  

[Legitimate]

If you look closer the swirl your talking about is actually the weather system that's currently affecting the UK at the moment

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_IR.html

I see, thanks for correction

[BlueHedgehog074]

For the sake of it, decided to take a look at what the 12Z GME model showed for Monday. If it was to come off as shown, it makes you realize how some sort of teleportation device would come in handy for those in the South... :o

 

 

Although if you're a fan of super-sonic winds, then I guess teleportation device wouldn't be needed. But all of these differing outputs from all the various models does show that even within 24 hours, changes in regards to the weather and exact pressure patterns can still happen (just like what happened when the GFS 18Z decided to be a bit sneaky and downgrade the intensity of the storm). In a weird way, though, I'm kinda glad the 18Z GFS has made the Low less intense, not only just to illustrate the fact that nothing is always 100% definite, but because it now adds a bigger sense of mystery, suspension, tension and excitement in relation to Monday's weather event (even though the GFS 18Z could indeed just be a one-off run).

 

[Sean19]

@Schafernaker

 

Still has this storm tracking right through the Southern half of the UK. Just look at that arrow.

https://twitter.com/Schafernaker/status/394268696098906112/photo/1

Edited October 27, 2013 by Sean19

[Chris D]

Tell you one thing Twitter is really good for; getting meteorologists' views etc on stuff!

Edited October 27, 2013 by Chris D

[london-snow]

Well one's thing is for sure, It's going to be a very interesting set of mod in the morning whatever the output shows.

[AderynCoch]

Looks very bad for the south coast, with the depression moving east into the Channel before turning northeastwards and ploughing inland. This gives the storm the longest track over the sea and the coast the longest exposure to those severe gales. The famous October 1987 storm approached in a similar manner.

 

The depth of the low is forecast to be quite similar to 1987 too (about 970mb) but the heights over Europe look to be a bit higher this time round, meaning a tighter squeeze of the isobars. This would indicate the potential for even stronger winds - whilst I don't think it will be as bad as 1987, and as ever there will be some changes closer to the event, this is clearly a situation which needs to be taken very seriously. I wouldn't be surprised to see gusts in the 100mph ball park in more exposed places like the Needles or Selsey Bill - and 1987 wasn't even the last time this happened in the south, as it happened on 30th October 2000 too. So such extreme weather is perhaps not as rare as is sometimes made out.

 

Anyway, sorry to be such a doom-monger. Maybe it won't be that bad, but that's my reading of the situation and it's always best to overestimate a storm rather than underestimate it.

Edited October 27, 2013 by AderynCoch

[dallas]

addidtional earlier warning from the met office,

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=se

[Kiwi]

Storm doesn't develop at all on 0z. Even less windy than 18z.

[rich1974]

So has this storm been down graded or was it a cock up in the readings earlier?? Is the show back on??

[Ian Suffolk]

GFS once again says no to the storm on the 00z operational. I await the ensemble suite with bated breath. For some reason the system just doesn't seem to develop anywhere near as intensely as first modelled.

[dallas]

To my eye does not look as intense as earlier, or it might be it blows through earlier

Edited October 27, 2013 by dallas

[rich1974]

Thanks for that.

[Ian Suffolk]

UKMO has also downgraded substantially. It still produces strong winds in the far south but doesn't develop the depression fully. It seems like the models are falling in line with what the 18Z GFS spotted last night.

[chubbyfan]

the KILLER MEGASTORM might not happen then...or at least not so mega.

[chicken soup]

Had a feeling this would happen...the first forum meltdown of the season is about to occur.

[snowangel32]

Yep going to have egg on my face told evreone i know that this was going to happen now there might not even be any kind of storm.

Edited October 27, 2013 by snowangel32

[snowangel32]

Yep going to have egg on my face told evreone i know that this was going to happen now there might not even be any kind of storm.

[snowangel32]

Yep going to have egg on my face told evreone i know that this was going to happen now there might not even be any kind of storm.

[Jayces]

I'm confused, looks slightly less lower pressure and slightly further South but still damaging winds for the South as far as I can tell? This is from the hourly GFS chart on Meteociel? I'm no expert though so will wait to see what the professionals say.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Jayces

[Ruislipredbee]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/northern-atlantic/satellite

At 2 am it's still heading our way!!!

[Polar Bear]

I'm confused, looks slightly less lower pressure and slightly further South but still damaging winds for the South as far as I can tell? This is from the hourly GFS chart on Meteociel? I'm no expert though so will wait to see what the professionals say.

Think they knew some would throw up some variants even this close to the timings so this is to be expected. It probably won't be known what the exact track really is until it is upon us. Hence all the caveats on alerts regarding tracking south.I know some of you want a storm and someone yesterday were after collateral damage. I like a good storm like the rest of us while we are on here however I want this thing now to go south to miss uk.. Id rather have egg on my face from my friends than a tree through the roof.

[Roger J Smith]

No idea what the ECM will show but this still looks like being a very significant event, rapid phasing of primary and secondary is already underway and the amount of scattered lightning across Ireland, eastern Atlantic indicates development potential. GFS has lost the plot perhaps, other models so far are only marginally downgraded if at all.

 

Expect this to develop into a thundery 3-6 hour overnight storm in southern England with severe gust potential enhanced by the forward speed of the wave and convection. The maps may change in appearance somewhat but gust potential continues to be significant for those reasons.

 

Tornadic wind streak potential mainly on continent but could briefly develop in southeast England. Would imagine Belgium could see strongest gusts though.

 

I may reset this if the ECM has a much different look, but so far this is what I would expect, and the light show may be fairly spectacular midnight to 0600h.

 

 

[coldfingers]

No idea what the ECM will show but this still looks like being a very significant event, rapid phasing of primary and secondary is already underway and the amount of scattered lightning across Ireland, eastern Atlantic indicates development potential. GFS has lost the plot perhaps, other models so far are only marginally downgraded if at all.

 

Expect this to develop into a thundery 3-6 hour overnight storm in southern England with severe gust potential enhanced by the forward speed of the wave and convection. The maps may change in appearance somewhat but gust potential continues to be significant for those reasons.

 

Tornadic wind streak potential mainly on continent but could briefly develop in southeast England. Would imagine Belgium could see strongest gusts though.

 

I may reset this if the ECM has a much different look, but so far this is what I would expect, and the light show may be fairly spectacular midnight to 0600h.

Thanks RJ, still glad I prepared as on the coast here it is still pretty windy and had 45knot gusts earlier that woke me so that is why I am on here at this unearthly hour of the morning. Even the dog looked at me as if I was mad when he saw me up.

[radiohead]

0Z ECM appears to be very similar to the GFS at 24 hours. A considerable downgrade looking very likely later this morning.