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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: cheltenham.
  • Weather Preferences: if its warm i want sun..if its cold i want snow.
  • Location: cheltenham.

Met office app has gusts of 84mph at 7am for me here in Brighton! What would the outcome of that be.........? Thanks

you might want to say goodbye to your windows. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

This is worrying indeed for anyone along the South Coast. 

 

I can't recall seeing a chart like this for a very long time !!Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Guest William Grimsley

It's looking likely that NW England (including Cheshire) will see a sting jet on Monday Morning. Wind gusts of 40 mph are possible.

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

Friends due to fly out from Heathrow 9am Monday morning. Not good I suspect with cancellations and delays almost inevitable on a busy and v windy Monday morning.

 

I suspect crosswinds are the greatest issue for airports. Heathrow has two East-West runways. Does anyone know if there are set parameters for takeoff/landings at Heathrow?

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Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

It's looking likely that NW England (including Cheshire) will see a sting jet on Monday Morning. Wind gusts of 40 mph are possible.

Why likely? Who says?

 

And 40mph hardly sounds like a particularly terrifying sting jet to me!

Edited by NickR
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Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

A lady rang to ask if there was an explosively deepening secondary on the way.

I like this but REALLY don't want to see anything like '87 again please! I have taken every precaution but living half a mile from the beach and in an area to catch the worst of the wind I am getting a little worried now!

Edited by coldfingers
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Of one thing I'm sure: that, whatever happens tomorrow night, the Express will call it a 'hurricane'; and anyone who disagrees with them will be pilloried for evermore. Just like Michael Fish has been!

 

Remember folks: The Express prides itself on the veracity of its weather-related headlines!Posted Image

 

That aside, I am getting a wee bit worried too: At the end the day, whether a hurricane or not, a Force 10 wind is a potentially dangerous beast!

 

Take care ya'll!

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

ECM has 24hr intervals on Meteociel.fr . 

 

24hr chart shows the low in the Bay of Biscay? at around 995mb.

post-15543-0-04654500-1382813844_thumb.g

 

48hr chart shows the low in the North Sea 970mb.

post-15543-0-50316500-1382813887_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

A lady rang to ask if there was an explosively deepening secondary on the way.

 

Brilliant! Posted Image

 

And if I see the word 'hurricane' one more time in the press... ! Fair to say thanks to SSTs around these parts we can never experience one either.

 

That said, technicalities aside, an area (extent yet to be decided) somewhere between the Mid Northern third of France  to the southern third of the UK is going to be hit and hit very bad.  The general rule is the deeper the further north. The 'bombing' of a secondary system is one of the most impressive things to observe in real time.

 

The fact it is occuring during a fairly neap tide period is going to be the only saving grace for low lying coastal areas that are hit.

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Posted
  • Location: portland dorset
  • Weather Preferences: really cold or really hot ! extremes
  • Location: portland dorset

don't be silly! keep posting- especially as you have a front row seat to this storm!

if anyone jumps on you, this knight will come to the aid of a damsel in distress!

Posted Image

Lol awwww thank you ! I do indeed have front row seats , getting rather scary ! Portland is a windy place at the best of times let alone with the winds forecast ! Arghh tiny bit excited though lol x
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Guest William Grimsley

Why likely? Who says?

 

And 40mph hardly sounds like a particularly terrifying sting jet to me!

Well, looking at the LOW's track, it is likely that a W or NW strong wind will hit NW England on Monday Morning.Well, it's the first time I've come across one!

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

Sorry I'm currently Hayling Island ( in Caravan) and going back home next week to Manchester.

Oh gosh.. Caravan? Hayling island? Hmm suspect you may want to either go back home or find a nice local b n b tomorrow. :(
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Posted
  • Location: Swindon ,Wilts;
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.
  • Location: Swindon ,Wilts;

Exactly....it's hard to tell from this, but it is actually showing force 12 in the Bristol Channel. Only one run of one model of course.

 

Posted Image

I'm sure the old Severn bridge (M48) will be closed and possibly the newer one too?

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, W. Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Fog, Drizzle, Rain, Wind and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Horsham, W. Sussex

Friends due to fly out from Heathrow 9am Monday morning. Not good I suspect with cancellations and delays almost inevitable on a busy and v windy Monday morning.

 

I suspect crosswinds are the greatest issue for airports. Heathrow has two East-West runways. Does anyone know if there are set parameters for takeoff/landings at Heathrow?

 

Its quite possible that Heathrow may operate through the night on Sunday night/Monday morning and do-away with the night flying restrictions for one day. This is to allow eastbound transatlantic traffic to land early, ahead of the main windfield. I understand this decision is still pending. There will be delays, thats already been accepted as the landing rate will be reduced - the same can be said for other airports in the south east. I know that a number of London airports are not taking diversions, so if you can't get in to one of the London airports you'll likely end up at Birmingham/East Mids/Manchester or further north.

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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

Of one thing I'm sure: that, whatever happens tomorrow night, the Express will call it a 'hurricane'; and anyone who disagrees with them will be pilloried for evermore. Just like Michael Fish has been!

 

Remember folks: The Express prides itself on the veracity of its weather-related headlines!Posted Image

 

That aside, I am getting a wee bit worried too: At the end the day, whether a hurricane or not, a Force 10 wind is a potentially dangerous beast!

 

Take care ya'll!

 

I don't really care what the Express calls it.or NWTV or the MetO for that matter. When or if the power's been knocked out we'll have other things on our minds anyway.

 

But best to err on the side of caution. I've seen the zinc roof torn off a brand new hotel just down the road in Haverhill by a 60 mph gust.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Exactly....it's hard to tell from this, but it is actually showing force 12 in the Bristol Channel. Only one run of one model of course.

 

Posted Image

Well looks like Bristol are going to have a windy night Posted Image

Edited by interestingweather
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

Well it's been said may times before, the Fax charts are the best guidance tools to have at hand so let's take a look.

On Sunday 1200hrs, the surface feature is still many hundreds of miles away but it's a brewing.

261013 MetO Fax Chart t+24.png

Come midnight tomorrow, it's well and truly pushing its fronts (two warm fronts bringing non-disruptive rain) into Southern England. The worst of the winds will be making their presence felt across the Southwest approaches at this time. Predicted to be chasing the rear of the depression are two further fronts, one being an occlusion. The winds around the occlusion will likely be the fiercest.

261013 MetO Fax Chart t+36.png

Come midday Monday, the majority of the strongest winds will have hopefully transferred Eastwards. Although many parts of the East coast and SE England still vulnerable at this time.

261013 MetO Fax Chart t+48.png

Take care and please don't take any unnecessary risks, sustained winds above 40mph alone are potentially very dangerous. Plans for Monday may have to be reconsidered for some, I feel.

Cheers

gottolovethsiweather

Like others, I've got the passion for a good windstorm but common sense does also have to prevail on certain occasions.

Hear hear GTLTW.. Best thing all ye folks on here today watching the updates is to warn friends and families and make them not travel if they can. I have told my yard and they have got things prepped tomorrow. All ponies will be brought in Sunday night. My little thing was bringing the recycling bins into the garage!
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

hi all

 

Can anybody show me where this low is developing on this radar

 

 

 

Posted Image

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ECM pressure and precip chart shows a low of about 968mb as it crosses the country, some very tight isobars on the southern flank and a lot of heavy rain, possibly 50mm in some areas in a few hours so flooding problems too perhaps.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

A lady rang to ask if there was an explosively deepening secondary on the way.

 

That would not surprise me, the secondary I mean of course. Best hold onto our hats and get safely through the first one. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather.
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Looking forward to seeing what happens over the next 48 hours, I remember 1987, was living in South East London at the time and hoping the damage is not as severe, however cannot remember when we last had such a significant wind storm. Hopefully every one will stay safe, and be sensible. 

Edited by Tedward1982
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

ECM pressure and precip chart shows a low of about 968mb as it crosses the country, some very tight isobars on the southern flank and a lot of heavy rain, possibly 50mm in some areas in a few hours so flooding problems too perhaps.

 

Posted Image

Just about to post this, it really keeps the strongest winds in the southern counties again, some worrying consistence ...

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