Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

[jessandjon]

I've just come out of a teleconference with various airports, air traffic control and the Met Office regarding the situation Sunday night in to Monday morning. The current industry specific breif is as follows:The low should be in or around the Bristol channel by 2100 Sunday moving NE. At 0600 Monday its expected to be Cardigan Bay with a central pressure of 966mb still moving NE. It should clear the Lincolnshire coast by 1200. Anywhere inland south of a line drawn Plymouth to Norwich should see winds of 35-40KT (40-50mph) with occasional gusts up to 60KT (70mph). Exposed hills and coastal locations along the south coast could see a mean wind of 50-60KT with gusts in the 70-80KT region between the hours of 0400-1000. There is also an "outside chance" of somewhere seeing in excess of 80KTS (92mph) for a short while, most likely somewhere along the Dorset coast across to Kent.Any storm surge/swell along the south coast should be around 6ft above the mean. We are in the neap tide range, so tides are not as high.The estimate is that this low should be around 20mb less and on average around 20-30KTS less severe than the 1987 storm.Information above is accurate as of 1430 this afternoon.

So if I live at whitsand bay on the coast of Plymouth what should I be expecting?

[laserguy]

As predicted days ago with 100% confidence, this will miss me. Only just - but it may as well be a million miles away. Have fun, the lucky ones amongst you.

[Wet'n'Dry]

Getting choppy down the south coast!!

 

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

[philmd5]

I've just come out of a teleconference with various airports, air traffic control and the Met Office regarding the situation Sunday night in to Monday morning. The current industry specific breif is as follows:

 

The low should be in or around the Bristol channel by 2100 Sunday moving NE. At 0600 Monday its expected to be Cardigan Bay with a central pressure of 966mb still moving NE. It should clear the Lincolnshire coast by 1200. Anywhere inland south of a line drawn Plymouth to Norwich should see winds of 35-40KT (40-50mph) with occasional gusts up to 60KT (70mph). Exposed hills and coastal locations along the south coast could see a mean wind of 50-60KT with gusts in the 70-80KT region between the hours of 0400-1000. There is also an "outside chance" of somewhere seeing in excess of 80KTS (92mph) for a short while, most likely somewhere along the Dorset coast across to Kent.Any storm surge/swell along the south coast should be around 6ft above the mean. We are in the neap tide range, so tides are not as high.The estimate is that this low should be around 20mb less and on average around 20-30KTS less severe than the 1987 storm.Information above is accurate as of 1430 this afternoon.

If the low is in the Bristol Channel and 9 hours later is in Cardigan Bay it has moved NW not NE?

[Mapantz]

What's your highest ever Uk reading?

Just dug a couple out;http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=d0RspSX5IhA

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=kFBKBDpU7Rchttp://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=u0IZuvLEdow 

[jamesbhx]

If the low is in the Bristol Channel and 9 hours later is in Cardigan Bay it has moved NW not NE?

It was phrased as "The Bristol Channel" but I would really describe it as the Southwest Approaches going off the information I was given. Certainly well west of landfall at that time and the low does take a pretty much constant NE track.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

As an older person and '87 storm veteran, my advice is to get everything you need electricity for done today and tomorrow... you may not have any next week or even the week after that if you live in a rural location - we didn't have any for 6 weeks after 16/10/87 - there were just so many lines and substations hit by trees etc.

 

If you live on a hill, fill up your bath and as many large containers as poss, with clean water for drinking (clean out one of your wheelie bins with bleach and fill that - takes at least 50 gallons) as the pump which pumps it up to you might be out of action. No electricity is bearable, but no water is horrendous.

 

Keep your freezer shut so the food stays frozen as long as poss. Buy tins and things you can cook in a saucepan or frying pan.

 

And stay inside. If there are trees near the bedroom where you sleep, move into another room for Sunday or sleep downstairs. Don't move until the wind's gone completely and even then be careful. Make friends with someone who has a petrol chainsaw, get together with your neighbours and make plans for the clear up, the authorities might not be able to help.

Quite possibly one of the most sensible posts i've seen all day ... Thank you. I hadn't thought of a pump needing to send water out to the houses.

[radiohead]

So if I live at whitsand bay on the coast of Plymouth what should I be expecting?

 

Storm force winds, perhaps violent storm force. The possibility of 80+ mph gusts. There should be a clearer idea by this time tomorrow.

[Summer Sun]

Some torrential rain for a time tomorrow evening and early Monday along with the strong winds

 

Edited October 26, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Storm Track]

The full force of Hurricane Saint Jude is set to hit London and Southern England, France, Germany and Netherlands with more than 80mph winds.

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/wind-europe-england-france/19269578

Edited October 26, 2013 by Storm Track

[*Stormforce~beka*]

The full force of Hurricane is set to hit London and Southern England, France, Germany and Netherlands with more than 80mph winds.http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/wind-europe-england-france/19269578

Not heard of a hurricane coming here! Even your article says nothing about A hurricane

Edited October 26, 2013 by *Stormforce~beka*

[rich1974]

Hurricane!?! Bit over the top I think with that statement mate.

[Evening thunder]

The full force of Hurricane is set to hit London and Southern England, France, Germany and Netherlands with more than 80mph winds.http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/wind-europe-england-france/19269578

 

Hurricane? seems a lot more hyped than the article you've linked to, which seems much more reasonable and perhaps even underestimating winds slightly.

[samadamsuk]

hey all. does anyone know what the mean wind speed is expected to be at the height of the storm? - as a comparison, I remember the burns day storm very well (I was at school - amazingly they'd left sheets of glass by a classroom which were then flying through the playground, and we could open out our coats and get lifted and pinned against the wire fence!) - mean windspeeds were 55 to 60 mph well inland.

 

cheers, Samos

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just from the 48 hour accumulated rainfall, it looks like the NAE is pulling this further S once again

 

 

Worst of the rainfall now across NW France

[NickR]

The full force of Hurricane Saint Jude is set to hit London and Southern England, France, Germany and Netherlands with more than 80mph winds.http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/wind-europe-england-france/19269578

 

Mods?

 

This guy is about as much of a troll as I think I've seen. Endless scaremongering and false statements that are utterly irresponsible.

[pip22]

This time last year we are watching Superstorm Sandy battering the US. And from tomorrow night we will be watching if not bracing for ourselves for the major storm to make landfall tomorrow night/Monday Morning. I bet the Americans will be laughing at us about time when the storm hits.

 

Edited October 26, 2013 by pip22

[rich1974]

Where does this Saint Jude bit come from?

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

Haloween Storm Party on brighton beach, Midnight Sunday night anyone? We will be down there in any case with the old barbie   Might get a bit damp i guess so bring a jumper and possibly even a coat, wouldn't want anyone to catch a cold like.

[rich1974]

Oh and line your pockets with pebbles, might keep you at ground level.

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

Does anyone know if Brighton is close to storm track?

Also how are people planning to celebrate this event?

[Storm Track]

Just perhaps slightly with the forecasters are just planning to prepared for the red alerts according to the Met Office for this tonight

Hurricane? seems a lot more hyped than the article you've linked to, which seems much more reasonable and perhaps even underestimating winds slightly.

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

Oh and line your pockets with pebbles, might keep you at ground level.

good advice, cheers for that will give it a try

[Gaz1985]

Just from the 48 hour accumulated rainfall, it looks like the NAE is pulling this further S once again

 

 

Worst of the rainfall now across NW France

 

Indeed same with this one too, worst of the winds in Channel islands and France. NAE says Oui! to the French. But of course if this thing moves NE wards it could still clip the very far SE.

 

Edited October 26, 2013 by Gaz1985

[A.J]

Does anyone know if Brighton is close to storm track?

Also how are people planning to celebrate this event?

if you're on the beach on monday, you'll make history as the first manned flight across the english channel without any mechanical aid!