Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

[terrier]

Check your original post! You should have said north of Sheffield not south!

 

Karyo

My mistake sorry

Did you mean to say North in your original question?

Yes my bad lol

[johnholmes]

Chief's new briefing received. In a nutshell: NAE modified much towards EC & new GM (broadly similar). So, low centre shifted NW, slowed a tad & deepened. EC currently considered closest match to IR imagery.Key concern remains the overlapping zone walloped by inital SWrly phase & likely again by later W'rly squeeze. Phasing of these uncertain. I can't share the graphics with you from Ops Centre, but for descriptive sake, this zone - albeit roughly & uncertainly delineated - currently encompasses S'rn parts W Country (eg Dorset; S & E Somerset) & adjacent areas. Evaluation of current warnings actively ongoing.

 

thanks as always Ian for what you are able to share

[Sainsbo]

I'm not sure if this has been posted, but it's a link Ian tweeted. This may be quite handy in the next few days. http://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg

[Ben Sainsbury]

Can we see the system on this picture as of yet?

Or is it further north?

Edited October 26, 2013 by interestingweather

[johnholmes]

Guys mind if i ask a few Questions.

 

Do i still need to be concerned here on the Isle of wight, there is talk its going out in the channel so south may miss worst or do you think its track will mean south gets hit badly..

 

current assessment from the professional is that you will be affected with storm force gusts

[Supacell]

Currently the impact of this storm on the met office warning is up to its maximum level, the likelihood one below its maximum level. Just that bit more certainty and a red warning is likely.

 

It is a difficult one to call for my area regarding winds, although it will be windy. I work for an electricity distribution company and I reckon our engineers will be very busy come Monday/Tuesday - especially in the southern and western parts of our jurisdiction.

 

If a sting jet does occur then my area may be in trouble.

Edited October 26, 2013 by Supacell

[radiohead]

Can we see the system on this picture as of yet?

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif

 

It's not going to look like much for a while yet. You can track its progress here, it's the 1007mb low.

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013102612&size=large〈=en&area=eur

[johnholmes]

If im reading it right anyone south of sheffield wont have anything to worry about regarding these winds.

then you are certainly reading it wrong, the worst winds will be south of the depressions track, currently it is forecast to cross 'somewhere' in the vicinity of the Peak District, 30-40 miles north or south say of the southern end?

[terrier]

then you are certainly reading it wrong, the worst winds will be south of the depressions track, currently it is forecast to cross 'somewhere' in the vicinity of the Peak District, 30-40 miles north or south say of the southern end?

So are you saying west yorkshire could get hit then john? Sorry very new to all this

[johnholmes]

So are you saying west yorkshire could get hit then john? Sorry very new to all this

 

no I was questioning why you said south, since then you have corrected that to say north.

It is not really clear at the moment if W Yorks will be affected. To me it seems unlikely that the S-SW winds will be severe in that area. As the low tracks to the east of that area then W-NW'ly winds MAY touch severe gale for a short time but you need to keep your eyes on the Met O predictions and look at what Jo Farrow and Nick F are posting along with Ian F for reliable un hyped outlooks.

[terrier]

no I was questioning why you said south, since then you have corrected that to say north.

It is not really clear at the moment if W Yorks will be affected. To me it seems unlikely that the S-SW winds will be severe in that area. As the low tracks to the east of that area then W-NW'ly winds MAY touch severe gale for a short time but you need to keep your eyes on the Met O predictions and look at what Jo Farrow and Nick F are posting along with Ian F for reliable un hyped outlooks.

ok thankyou for that

[Weather-history]

Accuweather have written a blog on this

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/will-the-uk-storm-be-like-1987/19244656

[Just Before Dawn]

Accuweather have written a blog on thishttp://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/will-the-uk-storm-be-like-1987/19244656

 

Interesting read.  The wave height assessment by NOAA is remarkable, and potentially troubling for parts of the south west.  Potentially 8m + waves heights close on-shore.  We don't see that very often in southern England.

[m1chaels]

How bad a storm is currently forecast, I believe 87 had sustained speeds in the high 60s and gusts over 100 - at the moment we seem to be talking a fair bit lower for both and I assume damage is likely to be roughly proportional to square of wind speed?  Obviously aggregating factors for damage are the trees still in leaf and the saturated soft ground....

[Me & angel fiance]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ee&fcTime=1382918400

 

if I am reading this right we were under amber warning at 11.53 with very high likelihood, but then at 12.05 we are under a yellow warning and the likelihood dropped right down. It's for the same areas and time span.. confused now but hoping the yellow one is right not the amber

Apologies if this has already been posted about 

[radiohead]

The warm front is now appearing at the end of the hi res UK4 model, 9pm Sunday :

 

[radiohead]

Re: The Accuweather article.
 

It is interesting though to see that the hi-res ECMWF has it sub-964mb crossing the UK.

 

Edited October 26, 2013 by radiohead

[cobbett]

Interesting read.  The wave height assessment by NOAA is remarkable, and potentially troubling for parts of the south west.  Potentially 8m + waves heights close on-shore.  We don't see that very often in southern England.

That reminds me - need to wax the ol surfboard!

[Skyraker]

It's not the the Job of the Met Office to tell you how to prepare for any disruptive event and you won't find any Met Office briefing ever that tells anyone to go out and stock up on food. Why do some people find it so difficult to accept that some people's circumstances might be different to their own and that levels of preparation differ from individual to individual?

Why don't you go and put on a dress ?

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

How bad a storm is currently forecast, I believe 87 had sustained speeds in the high 60s and gusts over 100 - at the moment we seem to be talking a fair bit lower for both and I assume damage is likely to be roughly proportional to square of wind speed?  Obviously aggregating factors for damage are the trees still in leaf and the saturated soft ground....

We had similar problems with wet/waterlogged ground and trees in full leaf in 87, the main difference I see here is that we (South of a line Aberystwyth to the Wash) haven't had a big storm for more than 6 years, that's plenty of time for trees to change condition, perhaps with some structural defect to get bigger, high winds with that may cause a problem

[be cause]

Why don't you go and put on a dress ?

 

is this post from another century /

[Darren Bown]

It looks like that currently, N England and N Wales should be more concerned with the rainfall rather than the wind on Monday.

[radiohead]

The Weather Channel has a write up with some graphics.

 

 

http://uk.weather.com/story/news/severe-weather-outlook-st-jude-day-storm-28th-october-2013-20131023

[scotteboi]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ee&fcTime=1382918400

 

if I am reading this right we were under amber warning at 11.53 with very high likelihood, but then at 12.05 we are under a yellow warning and the likelihood dropped right down. It's for the same areas and time span.. confused now but hoping the yellow one is right not the amber

Apologies if this has already been posted about 

 

Both warnings are also still up on the Met Office Site? If within 12 minutes the warning has been downgraded to a yellow alert for our region, why is the amber still on there...is this a mix up or a case of the MET waiting and seeing as it evolves (which would make sense given the fact we are still a way away from the event)?

[Mapantz]

Both warnings are also still up on the Met Office Site? If within 12 minutes the warning has been downgraded to a yellow alert for our region, why is the amber still on there...is this a mix up or a case of the MET waiting and seeing as it evolves (which would make sense given the fact we are still a way away from the event)?

 

It's showing what time the warning was issued, not from when it's valid. It's valid from 12:05 until 21:00

Edited October 26, 2013 by Mapantz