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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

I just prefer to follow what those who get paid for this are saying, I know they aren't always right but if someone tells me to take care I'm not going to ignore that (n.b. Guildford appears to be around the current firing line so I'm following this more closely than I otherwise would).

 

Used to live 25 miles south of the town and went to college there. I warned my friends down there the day before yesterday wrt what I'd read on here... so they're quite grateful to NWTV - they've got animals to look after etc. - the fact the storm kept popping up on the same day in various models made me think it would verify.

 

I'm a veteran of '87 and know how wooded it is compared to up here in EA and how much damage was inflicted (no power for 6 weeks)

 

My tip is if you live on a hill, is to fill the bath with drinking water beforehand in case the electric pump which pumps it up to your house is knocked out. All you'll have is what's in the tank in the loft or wherever.

Edited by Iceni
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

RACY as the low crosses Sern England with low in the left exit of 500mb jet, low down to 973mb 06z Monday compared to 981mb at 00z ... doesn't look good for southern counties.

 

post-1052-0-58256200-1382630498_thumb.pnpost-1052-0-50936200-1382630485_thumb.pn

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

South of the M4 being the main area of threat, especially the closer one is to the channel coastline.

 

If I got much closer I'd have wet feet :unsure: 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

This looks like its going to be a short lived nasty low with it pulling away quite quickly

 

06z Monday

 

Posted Image

 

18z Monday

 

Posted Image

 

By t120 its the clam after the storm

 

Posted Image

 

UKMO at t96

 

Posted Image

 

GFS to compare

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

This is the potentially diffiicult bit, gusts over 100km p/h through Kent at rush hour.

 

Posted Image

Edited by ukpaul
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Wouldn't take much of a shift south for strongest winds to end up over the near continent, as we've seen often in the past, nail-biting stuff!

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

UKM led with this system last night, let's see how their 12z fairs.

 

I expect to see a northerly movement in this lows position in coming runs. Yes the parent low will be restrictive but i expect to see this fill more rapidly as shown in the latest models with the secondary low being more prevalent.

 

I think the low centre will move out to the north sea around Hull or perhaps even further north come Monday morning.

 

EDIT:

 

UKM at T96hr is very worrying.

 

30hPa drop in 24 hours with the low taking a more northerly trajectory/ Parts of London would experience gusts above 70mph. not taking into consideration possible sting jet scenario in a storm developing this rapidly.

Edited by Matty M
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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

This looks like its going to be a short lived nasty low with it pulling away quite quickly

 

 

Yes by 12pm Monday the low has already moved on and wind speeds quickly drop back down.

 

The low does come at a bad time though when its rush hour.

Edited by weathermaster
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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

This looks like its going to be a short lived nasty low with it pulling away quite quickly

 

06z Monday

 

Posted Image

 

18z Monday

 

Posted Image

 

By t120 its the clam after the storm

 

Posted Image

 

 

So did the one in '87. The next day was just gorgeous - calm and sunny and clear. Fortunate, as our drive was a mass of fallen tree branches and trunks. You woke up the next morning and couldn't believe you were on the same planet as the night before.

 

Regarding the rush hour. Surely people will have enough sense not to set off for work when the wind's 100 mph outside?

Edited by Iceni
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The general trend today so far from the models seems to have been a slight upgrade in terms of barometric pressure and windspeed, and a slight shift north, which isn't exactly the best scenario for people down in the south. Hopefully no one will get hurt by this system.

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Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

Uff,. both the GFS and UKMO 12z are a horror story...it looks even worse on that lovely Belgian coast where I was back a week or so. The weather then was bad - but this makes it look tame in comparisonPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

It definitely has the feel of a meteorological bullet coming close to us. Whether we catch it, or Denmark or the Netherlands etc. cop it worse than us, remains to be seen.

As Nick says, nail-biting!

I'm getting too obsessed with model watching now!  Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

Side by side comparison of the 12z runs GFS and UKMO at 96 hours,

 

Posted ImageUG.png

 

UKMO is slightly further North and deeper.

I think the Norfolk coast might cop it worse, with the UKMO solution, especially in a rapidly deepening situation.
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

This looks like an exact repeat of 87! Unlike 87, I'll be alive to witness this one Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Certainly explosive cyclogenesis. Here's Sun 12z, and Mon 12z,

 

post-5986-0-35714100-1382631440_thumb.gipost-5986-0-91614600-1382631454_thumb.gi

 

1000hPa-972hPa = 28hPa  which is > 24hPa/24 hours.

 

Worrying times - especially living up here on Bluebell Hill.

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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.

Wouldn't take much of a shift south for strongest winds to end up over the near continent, as we've seen often in the past, nail-biting stuff!

Or north for a more 'Direct Hit' fascinating nonetheless.
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

This looks like an exact repeat of 87! Unlike 87, I'll be alive to witness this one Posted Image

 

Thankfully the models aren't showing anything quite as severe as that. 1987 was a 953mb storm with gusts of 100 knots.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Has it shifted to a slightly earlier time frame on GFS?

 

Posted Image

 

I still don't like 128km/h (80 mph) gusts at any time of day.....

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

By the way, someone spare a thought for the channel islanders, up to 130km/h gusts and 90km/h average would be pretty devastating it it happened that way overnight Sunday into Monday.

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