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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

As long as there is no loss of life, limb or property I'll be happy with whatever we get and just hope my tree-lined route into work at 6.30am on Monday is clear and nothing falls on my nut as a soft-roofed car doesn't provide much protection!

 

The sun was shining this afternoon....roof down...and brained by an acorn!!

I think I'll  leave (my wife's) soft-top  at home come Monday and revert to the clapped out people carrier ....or if "hurricane" St Jude really does become the perfect storm I'll simply stay put.

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

I just prefer to follow what those who get paid for this are saying, I know they aren't always right but if someone tells me to take care I'm not going to ignore that (n.b. Guildford appears to be around the current firing line so I'm following this more closely than I otherwise would).

 

Of course and I agree :) I tend to stick with professionals to, but there is always some top quality info found on this site by posters that helps me learn more about setups like this from an educational point of view.

 

Living alongside the Severn Estuary, I am also watching this with interest. If the track were to move further North, some very strong winds could funnel up towards the Severn Crossings, near to where I live. Interesting times, although for now I remain on the fence of how this will pan out. Previous similiarities makes me want to think N France will see the worst...but we won't really know until later on Saturday onwards really.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I would recommend folk watch this Met O video if it has not already been posted, apologies if it has

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/Severe-storm-risk

and no doubt subsequent ones as the actual time approaches.

always the best is the man/machine mix, it is rare this is not much more accurate than any one model on its own.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

If you've got Netweather extra and can see the latest NMM charts, it looks like they take everything South with only the tip of the South coast (yep still me :doh:) getting the big gusts.

 

I'm not even going to put any of those charts on here at this point as the positioning will wander and stumble around the UK for the next few runs, like me on the rum this Saturday night Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

If you've got Netweather extra and can see the latest NMM charts, it looks like they take everything South with only the tip of the South coast (yep still me Posted Image) getting the big gusts.

 

I'm not even going to put any of those charts on here at this point as the positioning will wander and stumble around the UK for the next few runs, like me on the rum this Saturday night Posted Image

 

That would have been based on the output of the 06Z GFS, which took a more southerly route. Like you say, it'll probably change again soon enough anyway! 12Z models will be rolling out shortly.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

That would have been based on the output of the 06Z GFS, which took a more southerly route. Like you say, it'll probably change again soon enough anyway! 12Z models will be rolling out shortly.

 

I think NMM is it's own model:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-3452-new-nmm-hi-res-forecast-model-for-the-uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

First of the 12z models is out and it is the short range German GME . This is for the middle of Sunday

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

You can see the frontal wave just getting going ...

Yes exactly. It shows how much potential deepening is being suggested to still have to develop from that frontal wave.  As said earlier, we have been here before with this type of development with all kinds of ranges of suggested solutions. What about this time? The METO themselves have said today this low appears unusual because it is being suggested to develop so rapidly as it crosses the UK.  Time will tell whether it actually does.

Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

I don't expect this is going to be as bad as some are making out. Most models (especially the GFS) tend to over intensify these events. More often than not they are downgraded 24/36 hours beforehand. Remember that a very small change in track, even by 100 miles can make a mountain of difference to where sees the strongest of the winds. Remember that the depression hasn't even developed yet, so in the grand scheme of things a couple of hundred miles is absolutely nothing.

My thoughts are for 70mph gust to effect the south coast being a 60% possibilty with much less effect further inland. Still a long way to go folks! Expect large changes  by late Suturday/early Sunday!

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Yes exactly. It shows how much potential deepening is being suggested to still have to develop from that frontal wave.  As said earlier, we have been here before with this type of development with all kinds ranges of solutions. What about this time? The METO themselves have said today this low appears unusual because it is being suggested to develop so rapidly as it crosses the UK.  Time will tell whether it actually does.

 

And it's so far east of the normal cyclogenesis nursery.

 

I don't expect this is going to be as bad as some are making out. Most models (especially the GFS) tend to over intensify these events. More often than not they are downgraded 24/36 hours beforehand. Remember that a very small change in track, even by 100 miles can make a mountain of difference to where sees the strongest of the winds. !

 

Yes, but GooFuS is known for it because it models low pressures as not filling as quick as they should - so over a long sea track, you'd expect low pressures not to stay that deep for that length and period of time. This one is further east, so the chances are it will still be deepening as it enters the UK, is over the UK, and exits the UK. Spot on re: track.

 

Key observations to make are does it deepen by 24hPa in 24 hours - if that's what's being modelled, then the forecast is for explosive cyclogenesis (aka as bomb) of which one example is Oct '87, and it, generally, means that the jet is involved down to unusually low levels (ie the surface) - and all bets are off.

 

It's also a useful observation on the day, too.

Edited by Sparkicle
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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

GFS 6z does indeed go for explosive cyclogenesis,

 

Here's Sun 18z. Down to the bottom right you can that the frontal wave is now forming into a low pressure system of about 1000hPa

 

post-5986-0-55536100-1382629597_thumb.gi

 

Moving forward by 24 hours, it's already crossed the UK, has deepened whilst it crossed the UK, and is over the East North Sea with a pressure of 973hPa,

 

post-5986-0-91727100-1382629664_thumb.gi

 

This is in 'bomb' territory. A drop of pressure of 27hPa in 24 hours exceeds the normal threshold for explosive cyclogenesis. All sorts of other odd dynamics come into play, such as do we have a dry line entering the system from SW, are the heights to the south properly wrapped around the rotation, is the 150mph jet going to dragged down to the surface etc etc.

 

I know I am an utter amateur, but you can see why the professionals have brought this to everyone's attention.

Edited by Sparkicle
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS 12z out to midday Sunday now

 

Posted Image

 

By Monday 00z the low in the SW is down to 985mb

 

Posted Image

 

Deepens to 975mb over the SE

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Just about identical to the 06z run so far

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Most dangerous winds along the south coast on this run.

 

However these systems have a tendency to become deeper as the model draws closer to T(x) and i would

not be surprised to see this go further north as a result.

 

Looks dangerous for parts of Denmark/Holland

Edited by Matty M
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

As with the NMM, I shouldn't post these 'early' runs here, but GFS is just coming out and nothing much seems to sway it:

 

Posted Image

 

Maybe a tad further South, but still slamming up The Channel

 

Posted Image

Edited by Coast
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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Further north on this run, heavy rain running up to north Yorks/Lancs by Monday 8am, didn't reach that far on the 06z, fizzling out in Cheshire/Derbyshire area.

Edited by ukpaul
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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

12z GFS makes the low a bit deeper and its pushed it slightly more North on this run.

 

post-6686-0-60521300-1382630349_thumb.pn

 

Gust chart for Monday 3am it shows gusts of 65mph to just over 75mph,

 

post-6686-0-34096700-1382630393_thumb.pn

 

This is looking very interesting now I'm glad there's warnings out early this could be a big event if these charts are correct.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

The 12z GFS Op fits in nicely with the recent Met Office warnings.

South of the M4 being the main area of threat, especially the closer one is to the channel coastline.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Wind speeds still strongest along the south coast the further north you are the better it will be

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Some torrential rain with this system for the south as well bringing a very high risk of flash flooding to many areas

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Rainfall totals to 18:00 Monday

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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