Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

[Jimmy0127]

All I'm saying is I've seen the Mr Fish video on YouTube.....I'm kind of excited about it really lol It's been sooo long since we had a storm down here, I kind of don't want it to down grade, like usual....And as long as people take heed of the warnings, I'll be happy....I love this weatherStay safe,

 

Much as I think your enthusiasm for devastating storms is borderline perverse, and that your username should really be "Twistedgirl", I'm inclined to agree!

[syed2878]

if this storm hit they saying for once in a bluemoon the daily fale and the express could get this1 rite. jaffa cakes taking aside every1 if this storm intencifai then guys take hede of the warnings every1 stay safe.

[EML Network]

Seems to me that the majority of the models are putting this back in terms of ''impact'' with the maximum wind speeds coming closer to 10:00 am as opposed to overnight ??

 

and what is the JMA doing ?? putting everything right back until Monday early afternoon ??

 

[AWD]

GFS is exactly half way between the UKMO & ECM with regards to the placement of the low by Monday Lunchtime. It's not really closer to either one from the other.

[coldfingers]

Looking at GFS high res

 

You get gusts topping the high 60's mph till early Monday morning then from 09:00 they ease

 

At this stage the worst is out in the channel sparing the UK the worst though the Kent coast may be the one exception for mainland England

 

 

I wouldn't like to be crossing to France on the ferry on Monday

 

If it is too bad the ferries wont run. If it is just bad then DON'T go into the loos or you will regret it and throw up too.

I once crossed the channel in a F9 gale, too many people were sick. Horrible!

Edited October 25, 2013 by coldfingers

[Polar Maritime]

The models still don't know where this low will place its self

 

 

Nobody will no the exact track until Sun, plenty of chopping and changing over the next 48hrs.

[Fred Sykes]

It's never as bad as they say. I'm determined to complete my sail from Cornwall to the scilly isles on Monday

[Robbie Garrett]

100mph+ SUSTAINED winds Robbie??  Jeez that is not something even I would want!!

 

I am only going by what the storm motion is giving on the high res GFS.  I believe this is recorded at a height of 10m, let's say that the Storm Motion is maximum winds (i.e gusts) then the maximum gust is 150KM/h + in this case the black area. 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Robbie Garrett

[Skullzrulerz]

Looks like the storm is sealed on target to the uk and beyond .now its the matter of how strong it gets and rain/wind.

[EML Network]

It's never as bad as they say. I'm determined to complete my sail from Cornwall to the scilly isles on Monday

That would just be plain Scilly ;-)

[Skullzrulerz]

It's never as bad as they say. I'm determined to complete my sail from Cornwall to the scilly isles on Monday

Dude your best not to risk it if the storm gets bad.

[TwisterGirl81]

.

Edited October 25, 2013 by TwisterGirl81

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I'm going for a slight shift N. Just an instinct, I could be wrong. My line of track would be Mid Wales up to the N Yorkshire coast perhaps Scarborough-Teesside areas. Anywhere South of the Humber and Mid Wales batten down your hatches, enough said!!

[TwisterGirl81]

Much as I think your enthusiasm for devastating storms is borderline perverse, and that your username should really be "Twistedgirl", I'm inclined to agree!

Lol! Ok then?!I've always been mesmerised by crazy weather, from as far back as I can remember but mostly since the burns day storm, I find it comforting being inside when there's a thunderstorm, snow (which is quite rare here) or gale, of course I don't want anyone to get hurt but whether it be heat wave, fog, storm, ice or snow there's always dangerous risks.Let's just be careful, hope people stay safe and enjoy the show....For the record I'll be driving to work in this....

[Optimus Prime]

The models still don't know where this low will place its self

 

 

Well those charts must be at different time frames. In order for it to get to Europe it needs to cross through something first!

Looks like the storm is sealed on target to the uk and beyond .now its the matter of how strong it gets and rain/wind.

 

No not just yet. The intensity still isn't anywhere near confirmed yet. By Saturday evening/Sunday morning things will be clear

[Evening thunder]

It's never as bad as they say. I'm determined to complete my sail from Cornwall to the scilly isles on Monday

 

You might be blown the other way..

[ChezWeather]

I'm going for a slight shift N. Just an instinct, I could be wrong. My line of track would be Mid Wales up to the N Yorkshire coast perhaps Scarborough-Teesside areas. Anywhere South of the Humber and Mid Wales batten down your hatches, enough said!!

Im hoping it goes abit further north, the current run looks as it its going directly over the top of me... not had some good high winds here for a while so im buzzing for this! 

[Snowangel-MK]

For the record I'll be driving to work in this....

 

And so will a lot of other people Monday morning so please all take care and stay safe....

 

Darron Burness, head of the AA's flood rescue team, said: "If the predicted storm strikes, the timing couldn't really be worse, potentially causing significant travel disruption on Monday morning, which is one of the busiest times on the roads.

 

"Strong wind and torrential rain is an unpredictable and hazardous combination, which can be quite overwhelming when you're driving.

 

"There's likely to be tree and other debris on the roads as well potential flooding, so it's very important to keep your speed down and drive with great care, particularly on country roads early on Monday morning when it's still dark.

 

"Trees can partially fall too and hang above the road, sometimes above the sweep of the headlights, making them very difficult to spot.

 

"Don't gamble driving down flooded roads and think twice before crossing a ford. If you're using a sat-nav, be sensible and try to stick to the main routes where possible.

 

"If it's bad where you are, keep tuned to the weather and traffic reports - in case of road or bridge closures - and heed any local police advice about whether it's safe to travel.

 

"At a minimum, take a fully-charged mobile phone and warm, weatherproof clothing."

 

The AA's specialist flood rescue team, AA Special Operations, has been working all week and is geared up for a potentially very busy period. Its crews receive flood rescue and 4x4 training and drive modified Land Rovers.

[fergieweather]

An interesting system this one looks like. Will be interesting to watch and experience hopefully, thankfully I don't think it will be like 1987 or the burns day storm, but it could well be a notable storm still.There are some (especially the media/express) hyping this up to a 1987/Burns day or even worse event, and others playing it down to be nothing but some rain and wind. The reality may well be somewhere in between..I an a little confused by the Met Office quote that's been posted a couple times comparing it to the Burns Day storm and saying the wind reached 92mph then.. the wind definately reached or at least gusted higher than 92mph then in places.. or is this another misquote by the media?Edit: the ECM is leaning closer to that end of the scale though!

A misquote. Jan 2007 most recent parallel. UKMO 4km modelling of gusts v troubling, but the timing issues now arguably more a focus versus nuances of track. 12Z JMA a case in point (& they run a very respected model). All to play for in next 48hrs. Many of us returning to work later Sunday... can't recall when that last happened across our team.

[LadyEv06]

Im hoping it goes abit further north, the current run looks as it its going directly over the top of me... not had some good high winds here for a while so im buzzing for this!

Can't you move south for the day?? Lol, I don't want it too bad - can't see the school run being much fun :-/

[DAVID SNOW]

It's never as bad as they say. I'm determined to complete my sail from Cornwall to the scilly isles on Monday

 

With or without a blindfold?

[Wet'n'Dry]

Satellite imagery doesn't show much at the moment, but what we can't see is how the jet stream is going to interact.

 

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

[Skullzrulerz]

Can't you move south for the day?? Lol, I don't want it too bad - can't see the school run being much fun :-/

Does it matter which way it goes?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Im hoping it goes abit further north, the current run looks as it its going directly over the top of me... not had some good high winds here for a while so im buzzing for this! 

Hahaa! All the best mate. All I know is, they will not be a million miles from you at all. Definitely Nottingham across to Lincs Southward. You might get some tornadic action though, as there looks to be some mad converging winds within the centre of the low. Beware bud! I think I'm gonna be in for a serious battering 

[Jo Farrow]

It's never as bad as they say. I'm determined to complete my sail from Cornwall to the scilly isles on Monday

Isles of Scilly, if you ever got there, they wouldn't let you in calling it that