Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

[Skullzrulerz]

IF it doesn't get worse.

[Polar Maritime]

I should be ok living on top of a hill regarding flooding, it's the wind im concerned/exited about.

[Snowangel-MK]

Starting to get worried about this storm.

 

Try not to worry just be prepared and stay safe, things can still change between now and Monday, but it will take a lot of weakening to see this not being a problem of some kind so just do what you can to minimise any damage to your property but most importantly to people and pets  

Edited October 25, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[P-M]

Local beeb forecast up here had massive green blob right over the NE by 7am Monday morning and she said "gusts up to 60mph" yellow warnings so far in this neck of the woods but we shall see!

[Skullzrulerz]

Try not to worry just be prepared and stay safe, things can still change between now and Monday, but it will take a lot of weakening to see this not being a problem of some kind so just do what you can to minimise any damage to your property but most importantly to people and pets  

I am only 13 and i also live on a hill which will make the wind even faster.Just hope it doesn't get worse.

[Jimmy0127]

But how many times have the north and Scotland been under these types of warnings?  Can someone explain what is different with this one (in laymans terms) very interesting but I have not seen as much coverage of a potential event for a long time.  

 

I think the reasons are:

 

1.) More people in risk area (=>more interest)

2.) First such synoptics in a while (=> potentially higher impact)

3.) It's been in the forecast for days (=> more coverage)

[feb1991blizzard]

Looking at GFS high res

 

You get gusts topping the high 60's mph till early Monday morning then from 09:00 they ease

 

At this stage the worst is out in the channel sparing the UK the worst though the Kent coast may be the one exception for mainland England

 

 

I wouldn't like to be crossing to France on the ferry on Monday

 

 

You wouldn't be crossing to France on the ferry if the MET OFFICES of Britain and france still thought that that chart had any chance of verifying because they would start cancelling them, there would be storm warnings out on the shipping forecast.

[matty40s]

I think the major flooding problem will come from the leaves being stripped from the trees and blocking drains on roads everywhere. The surface water will stay above ground and then just pool at the lowest point, unable to drain away.

[Sussex Jules]

You wouldn't be crossing to France on the ferry if the MET OFFICES of Britain and france still thought that that chart had any chance of verifying because they would start cancelling them, there would be storm warnings out on the shipping forecast.

 

Condor Ferries from Poole to the Channel Islands and Brittany Ferries from Plymouth have already started cancelling some services.

[Lauren]

Starting to get worried about this storm.

I wouldn't worry too much, it may completely die down or change track.

 

As long as you take all the proper precautions, you should be fine.

[Skullzrulerz]

I wouldn't worry too much, it may completely die down or change track.

 

As long as you take all the proper precautions, you should be fine.

I think its very unlikely now.Moving on.The warmings on met office will be update on sat morning. 

[AWD]

12z high res WRF-NMM model showing the worst of the winds along southernmost counties during Monday morning.

At midnight;

At 02:00 Monday morning;

04:00 Monday morning;

06:00 Monday morning;

08:00 Monday morning;

10:00 Monday morning;

Bear in mind the above show MEAN (moyen) windspeeds and are not there to show max gusts, which are likely to be much higher in prone places.

[Matty M]

ECM deeper than the UKM at 48 hours.

 

Also some very strong winds over Ireland Sunday from the parent low.

 

[Robbie Garrett]

One thing to be concerned about is that at current track and position expected, we are likely to see the strongest winds +100mph or so gusts through the exposed Channel.  With 70-80mph through the majority of London and the Home counties.        ANY track further NORTH is really not something you should like to consider as then the most populated area in Europe will be prone to something not experienced in 26 years +

 

 

The main flank of winds are going for 93mph sustained to 100mph+    So anyone hoping the track goes further North, please don't

 

 

 

 

MetOffice warning system is currently at the following status.   Some branches or trees brought down. Localised travel disruption. Localised problems for high-sided vehicles on prone routes. Drive with care, especially on exposed routes. BE AWARE of possible debris being blown around.

 

 

It will only upgrade to RED on the following.   Widespread structural damage, e.g. roofs blown off, mobile homes overturned, power lines brought down. Risk to personal safety from flying debris. Potentially widespread and/or prolonged interruptions to power. Expect widespread transport disruption due to e.g. roads blocked by fallen trees.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Robbie Garrett

[Skullzrulerz]

One thing to be concerned about is that at current track and position expected, we are likely to see the strongest winds +100mph or so gusts through the exposed Channel.  With 70-80mph through the majority of London and the Home counties.        ANY track further NORTH is really not something you should like to consider as then the most populated area in Europe.

 

 

The main flank of winds are going for 93mph sustained to 100mph+    So anyone hoping the track goes further North, please don't

 

 

 

 

MetOffice warning system is currently at the following status.   Some branches or trees brought down. Localised travel disruption. Localised problems for high-sided vehicles on prone routes. Drive with care, especially on exposed routes. BE AWARE of possible debris being blown around.

 

 

It will only upgrade to RED on the following.   Widespread structural damage, e.g. roofs blown off, mobile homes overturned, power lines brought down. Risk to personal safety from flying debris. Potentially widespread and/or prolonged interruptions to power. Expect widespread transport disruption due to e.g. roads blocked by fallen trees.

Yeah Lets hope it doesn't go to the red warming.Lets not see a storm of 1987.

[Summer Sun]

970mb low from ECM

 

[Matty M]

ECMWF says OUCH.. Inland gusts >70mph. Towards 90mph on the coast.

 

Low centre near 965hPa with sting jet potential at back of storm within tight gradient

 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Matty M

[P-M]

One thing to be concerned about is that at current track and position expected, we are likely to see the strongest winds +100mph or so gusts through the exposed Channel.  With 70-80mph through the majority of London and the Home counties.        ANY track further NORTH is really not something you should like to consider as then the most populated area in Europe.

 

 

The main flank of winds are going for 93mph sustained to 100mph+    So anyone hoping the track goes further North, please don't

 

 

 

 

100mph+ SUSTAINED winds Robbie??  Jeez that is not something even I would want!!

Edited October 25, 2013 by P-M

[TwisterGirl81]

All I'm saying is I've seen the Mr Fish video on YouTube.....I'm kind of excited about it really lol It's been sooo long since we had a storm down here, I kind of don't want it to down grade, like usual....And as long as people take heed of the warnings, I'll be happy....I love this weather

Stay safe,

[feb1991blizzard]

Condor Ferries from Poole to the Channel Islands and Brittany Ferries from Plymouth have already started cancelling some services.

 

Yes, I meant to type nearer the time in my post, they already must have a high degree of confidence then.

[Matty M]

UKM & ECMWF handle the speed of the storm quite differently, with UKM much faster at accelerating the storm system east.

 

As has been mentioned earlier, do not be surprised to see this storm system end up further north. As the real-time developments happen and the models take in this data i expect a severe storm to track around 50 miles further north than shown on the current ECMWF.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Matty M

[AWD]

Ruddy hell! The 12z EC Det would be a little too much even or me. Would have to work outside in that, with my area right in the firing line there.

[Evening thunder]

An interesting system this one looks like. Will be interesting to watch and experience hopefully, thankfully I don't think it will be like 1987 or the burns day storm, but it could well be a notable storm still.

 

There are some (especially the media/express) hyping this up to a 1987/Burns day  or even worse event, and others playing it down to be nothing but some rain and wind. The reality may well be somewhere in between..

 

I an a little confused by the Met Office quote that's been posted a couple times comparing it to the Burns Day storm and saying the wind reached 92mph then.. the wind definately reached or at least gusted higher than 92mph then in places.. or is this another misquote by the media?

 

Edit: the ECM is leaning closer to that end of the scale though!

Edited October 25, 2013 by Stormmad26

[radiohead]

12Z ECM is 967mb over Wales at 72 hours :

 

[Summer Sun]

The models still don't know where this low will place its self

 

ECM

 

 

UKMO

 

 

Both 970mb but a big difference on the placement of the centre

 

GFS more in line with UKMO

 

 

GEM also has it at 970 and east of the UK

 

 

NAVGEM is the deepest so far at 965mb

 

 

So for the placement of the low out of the big 3 2 have it east of the UK whilst ECM is on its own having it over the UK