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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

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What every happens at the end of this weekend into Monday, much of the UK is in for some very windy weather, what is the dangerous/exciting/scary bit is where/when/if the intense core of damaging winds comes off. So far the South Coast has looked most likely, but the MO are hinting at drawing the low further north, and as the Low clears into the North Sea, Monday morning there could be a vicious backlash in the NW winds as it clears the Wash

I think im in love with JOPosted Image

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RED WARNINGs Met Office

These have a short lead time, they can't be issued too early as many transport/council infrastructure procedures are set off by the issue of an Amber or red alert.

There is still uncertainty with the details and a Watch gives the public a heads up, a Red warning, as it says, means TAKE ACTION now

 

As these severe winds may come when most are asleep, and around the Monday morning rush hour, any preparations or early warnings have to be a good thing. No 100% in this game

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Oh dear! Posted Image

They'll be earthquakes that are 4 on the beaufort scale next.

 

Is there anybody on here coming down this way for a bit of an intercept? I'm still planning on going to St Albans head or somewhere around there. The top of the Purbeck hills isn't a bad shout either, somewhere to park up as well.

I was down there last week and much as I enjoyed the week of almost complete sun and warm in the caravan, not too keen on the idea of doing the same in this storm.

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I've just gone and got a new torch!...I'm ready!

I'd go with a flask - so you can make hot water before bed, and still have a cuppa in the morning

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As these severe winds may come when most are asleep, and around the Monday morning rush hour, any preparations or early warnings have to be a good thing. No 100% in this game

Have a sneaky feeling my early post 6am drive to work might be "interesting"  Monday. Even on other breezy days on bin day (this monday oddly enough) it makes the roads here an obstacle course to navigate.

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I've just gone and got a new torch!...I'm ready!

 

Lets hope that's all that's needed WSK :good:

 

Posted Image

 

I guess if a storm is a comin', then a storm is a comin'  - no matter how long and hard you stare and ponder at charts, forecasts or media articles, if it wants to come this way then it will. All anyone can do is lessen any impact the worst could bring by being sensible about your garden and house tomorrow and making sure if it still looks like its still coming your way by Sunday, you know what you will do if any bits fall off or services are interrupted. 

 

Timing is important as it could all mostly blow through before rush hour starts and I guess nobody is going to risk moving around in it in the early morning if it does blow up to 70/80mph at that time - unless you are the emergency services?

 

Just keep your sensible head on and keep checking NW for updates.

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12Z NAE at 48 hours shows the low approaching from the southwest at 994mb with 50mph sustained winds.

 

Posted Image

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Oh dear! Posted Image

They'll be earthquakes that are 4 on the beaufort scale next.

 

Is there anybody on here coming down this way for a bit of an intercept? I'm still planning on going to St Albans head or somewhere around there. The top of the Purbeck hills isn't a bad shout either, somewhere to park up as well.

If so arrive early and see the  Carrivick Sisters playing at the Square and Compasses tonight!

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Timing is important as it could all mostly blow through before rush hour starts and I guess nobody is going to risk moving around in it in the early morning if it does blow up to 70/80mph at that time - unless you are the emergency services?

I have never tried it, but can anyone actually drive a car in 80mph side winds ?Id imagine you'd get blown about everywhere on a motorway (driving slower of course).Has anyone had experience of driving in really bad side winds ?I am only asking as it would appear that the country will be attempting to go to work when the worst of the storm is on us on Monday. Edited by diddy1234

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I have never tried it, but can anyone actually drive a car in 80mph side winds ?Id imagine you'd get blown about everywhere on a motorway (driving slower of course).Has anyone had experience of driving in really bad side winds ?I am only asking as it would appear that the country will be attempting to go to work when the worst of the storm is on us on Monday.

 

The bigger/higher sided the vehicle the worse it is. I drove my VW camper to cornwall a couple of years back and there was a fairly gusty side wind for a good few hours of the journey. I had to stop a couple of times just to rest my left arm, it ached like hell!! The side wind was probably only 30mph or so. Gusts are worse than a constant wind when driving, gusts force vehicles into other lanes with next to no warning which is obviously very dangerous. The Orwell Bridge not far from me often has speed restrictions in high winds or can even close all together (March 2008 was the last time I think).

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It certainly looks like a potent storm come Sunday night into Monday and the Met Office current track takes it right over my house. It is hard to imagine anything that strong in the centre of the country though and so where areas exposed to the coast and on hills should "be prepared" I am not overly worried yet, although watching this all unfold is and will be a form of interest and excitement to many of us, panic and fear for some. For me I think rain is more of a concern, and flooding is far easier to imagine as I have seen my area affected by serious flooding on two occasions now.

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I have never tried it, but can anyone actually drive a car in 80mph side winds ?Id imagine you'd get blown about everywhere on a motorway (driving slower of course).Has anyone had experience of driving in really bad side winds ?I am only asking as it would appear that the country will be attempting to go to work when the worst of the storm is on us on Monday.

I was working on a house renovation when the '87 one hit and remember being in a Transit van (not driving) and flat out it could only managed 40mph against the wind that morning.

 

Another chap working with us came 20(ish) miles on his push bike (he was a stocky, very healthy, martial arts person).  All he added that day was a black bin liner with holes cut out for his head and arms pulled over him.

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There's giant tall trees in my garden, at least 2.7 times taller than the house.

I just hope for me and my neighbour's sake they don't fall down - they look quite weak and narrow.

If not, we'll still have to clear up all the pine needles, lol.

Edited by galacticwarrior

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12z rolling out and already 5hPa stronger and a bit further north. But GFS is playing catch up with the UKM.


System undergoing RACY by T54 and bombing as it heads northeast.

 

Expect a more northerly track than earlier on GFS runs.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Matty M

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12z rolling out and already 5hPa stronger and a bit further north. But GFS is playing catch up with the UKM.

System undergoing RACY by T54 and bombing as it heads northeast.

 

Expect a more northerly track than earlier on GFS runs.

 

Posted Image

 

looks identically placed to me

 

Posted Image

 

06z

 

Posted Image

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Don't be at all surprised if it takes a track further north than the models are showing. The Rosenbloom Rule in effect.

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So the GFS a circa 965hPa storm over central England undergoing rapid deepening.

 

With the GFS playing catch up with the more northerly track & deepening, the UKM in the next 15 minutes will be super interesting,

Edited by Matty M
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Identical positioning, however looks far deeper than the 06Z.

 

Major upgrade - getting worse by the hour.

Edited by Dan the Man

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Not in a car but years ago clearing the bus turnaround on earnsie bay on walney island , i could feel the wind rocking my jcb, not to mention being machine gunned with pebbles and spray !!

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