Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

[Buckster]

hehe - its odd AWD - often Essex doesn't get included in the warnings, happened last year during Snow Events too

 

and I'm never quite sure why - small counties of London are mentionned (Bracknell Forest etc) - yet not Essex !

 

weird - perhaps I'll twitter them

[Sussex Jules]

hehe - its odd AWD - often Essex doesn't get included in the warnings, happened last year during Snow Events too

 

and I'm never quite sure why - small counties of London are mentionned (Bracknell Forest etc) - yet not Essex !

 

weird - perhaps I'll twitter them

Just for our neighbours

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ee&fcTime=1382918400

[Buckster]

lol was me being dense - sorry

 

we're East -not London and South-East

 

metoffice correct, Buckster wrong

 

[Mapantz]

I wonder if we'll get any videos appearing online, along the lines of "Ooo Arr, omg trampoline" ?

Edited October 25, 2013 by Mapantz

[Snow Queen one]

Medway is another one it is in Kent but gets its own mention in met-office warnings

[BrickFielder]

  Its too early to tell where the path of the storm is going to be, but there is enough of a concern at the Met Office to issue an amber warning. I think that tells me there are aspects to the storm other than how deep it is that might be a concern.  Perhaps this might be a Shapiro-Keyser cyclone as perhaps hinted at by skyraker.(the cold front moves roughly perpendicular to the warm front such that the fronts never meet, the so-called 'T-bone'. Also, a weakness appears along the poleward portion of the cold front near the low center, the so-called 'frontal fracture' and a back-bent front forms behind the low center. Cyclones embedded within diffluent flow (e.g. jet-exit regions) tend to evolve like the Norwegian cyclone model, whereas cyclones embedded within confluent flow (e.g. jet-entrance regions) tend to evolve like the Shapiro-Keyser cyclone model.)  The key might be the back bent front forming behind the low center. At the tip of this cold front air rushes downward from a warm front to a cold front. This is called a sting jet, which can increase low level winds speeds which models will find hard to pick up.Here is what storm jannette looked like on the fax charts.  Note that the sting jet really did not descend until the it had almost cleared the UK in this case.Compare this with a forecast fax chart for Monday (Red circle could be a potential sting jet area).  The key thing to remember is the rapid cyclogenisis of this storm with the existing storm to the north makes it slightly different to your average atlantic storm. There are some potentials for high winds which most likely will not show up on model charts. Having said that quite often that potential never materialises. Even without a sting jet reaching the surface the winds will be strong enough with trees still having some folliage to cause damage. I think the Met Office has made a good call here (not getting too technical but a broad warning and better to act on the side of caution).

 

Go read the links posted by Coast on the previous page.

Eumetsat also has a good review on sting jets.

[Richie V]

Deepness is key here, faster deepening and a lower central pressure of just 6 to 10mb would have a prefound impact on track pulling the system on a more northerly track. The meto alternative "moderate" outcome should not be ignored. As for comparing to the oct 2000 storm, I recorded a min pressure of 949.4 mb as the core passed overhead. I'll never forget that night. I had not seen any forecast so I did'nt have a clue what was going on. Around midnight I rember I was on the M18 near Doncaster driving back to Anston, Sheffield after visiting an ex. Controlling the reno clio in very heavy rain and an easterly gale was difficult. I got home around 1 am pressure was 978 mb. I got a cuppa and had a fag, when I checked again 15 mins later it was 971 mb. It's at this point I realised something was going on.

Around 3:30 am the clouds were extremley low and moving east to west like a vcr on play and ff at the same time, pressure down to 956 mb.

At 4:20 am pressure went sub 950 mb, easterly wind died and rain stopped, clouds were now screaming in above west to east, this was creepy with it been flat calm on the ground. 4:35 am, I opened the back door for another smoke, flat calm still. A min or two into the smoke I felt a wierd pressure sensation on my ears, like the eardrums were been pushed inward making sounds quiet. I pinched my nose, shut my mouth and popped them. All sound was normal again. Less than 1 min, it was happening again, the pushed in feeling in the ears. When I popped them again thats when me as a grown man became terrified. All over to my west there was an awful deep growling distant rumble. This very slowly at first got louder, then more quickly. Then I could hear alarms going off everywhere to my west, things smashing. At this point there was a huge pull of air from the east that literally pulled me off the doorstep then utter hell broke out from the west, a gust of 96.8 mph flattened more than half the trees in the orchard behind the house in an instant. 2 mins prior was calm.

[Robbie Garrett]

How odd, 11 years ago this was. I remember it well!!  Does anyone remember it?  How uncannily similar. 

 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/27oct2002storm.html

 

 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Robbie Garrett

[Boro Snow]

the remnants of lorenzo seems to be developing just in time before it gets absorbed by the developing low

 

 

[Steve C]

How odd, 11 years ago this was. I remember it well!!  Does anyone remember it?  How uncannily similar. 

 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/27oct2002storm.html

 

 

 

Yes, I posted about it on the Regional yesterday, but initially confused it with the October 2000 storm.

[Coast]

How odd, 11 years ago this was. I remember it well!!  Does anyone remember it?  How uncannily similar. 

 

 

OCTOBER 27TH 2002 WINDSTORM - "JEANETTE"

 

Late October windstorms have been a recurrent feature of recent years, and there is some evidence to suggest that the period 25-31st October represents a stormy "singularity".

 

During the 26th a small low originating in the West Atlantic moved rapidly ENE towards Ireland. It crossed Ireland and northern England during the morning of the 27th exiting in north eastern England and giving very strong winds and damaging gusts on its southern flank. By evening, the low was over southern Sweden, leaving the UK in moderating WNW winds to the north of a high (1035) over Biscay.

 

At the very exposed Needles lighthouse on the Isle of Wight, a gust of 102 mph was recorded around 0500 GMT. 96 mph was recorded at the (also very exposed) station at Mumbles Head (south-west Wales). Many stations over England and Wales experienced their strongest gust speeds since the 29th / 30th October 2000 windstorm and some stations in East Anglia experienced their highest gusts since the Burns day storm of 25th January 1990.

 

7 people were killed as a direct result of the storm in the UK and at least a further 23 across northern Europe. Most deaths were the result of falling trees. Property damage in the UK was worst in Wales, the Midlands and East Anglia. 300,000 homes were left without power, and electricity companies were criticised, as many homes remained without power even a week later! A replica inflatable army tank and a 25ft inflatable Ronald McDonald both broke free from their moorings and were being eagerly sought by their owners!

 

The storm also caused considerable disruption to transport. In Scotland, a ferry carrying 80 passengers was stranded for 80 hours after it failed to land at Lerwick in the Shetland Isles and at Heathrow Airport, over 60 flights were cancelled. Insured loses across northern Europe were estimated at £500M with the most severe losses in Germany and the Netherlands and further substantial losses in the UK (£50M), France, Austria, Poland Czechoslovakia. Economic losses were estimated at £1Billion.

 

Max Wind Gusts (mph) across Europe for the Jeanette windstorm 27th October 2002

 

 

 

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/wind_info.php

 

First Jeanette, now possibly Jude???

Edited October 25, 2013 by Coast

[Midlands Ice Age]

Lee,

 

Good, but I think worrying,  spot! 

 

I am no expert at these things, but that looks like a very bad development to me. 

It means there is still a lot of warmth and energy about to be applied to this developing system.

Any comments from anyone else/

 

MIA

 

the remnants of lorenzo seems to be developing just in time before it gets absorbed by the developing low

 

 

[Coast]

Any comments from anyone else/

 

 

From this thread yesterday:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78257-possible-severe-storm-monday-28th-october-2013/?p=2813247

[Robbie Garrett]

I remember it so well, and it peaked in London at 49.48mph gusting 73.64mph - extremely impressive for London.  It took down my Aunties tree and my Nan's Tree and many other tree's in Dulwich, was so powerful.

 

 

EGLL 270520Z 22030G46KT 9999 FEW025 14/08 Q0993 NOSIGEGLL 270550Z 23027G37KT 9999 -SHRA SCT022 14/09 Q0993 NOSIGEGLL 270620Z 23031G42KT 9999 FEW022 SCT050 14/07 Q0992 NOSIGEGLL 270650Z 24030G54KT 9999 FEW022 SCT040 14/06 Q0994 NOSIGEGLL 270720Z 24032G50KT 9999 FEW022 SCT040 13/05 Q0994 NOSIGEGLL 270750Z 24035G51KT 9999 -SHRA FEW022 BKN038 13/05 Q0994 NOSIGEGLL 270820Z 25033G53KT 9999 -SHRA FEW022 BKN038 13/04 Q0995 NOSIGEGLL 270850Z 25037G57KT 9999 FEW022 BKN038 13/04 Q0996 NOSIGEGLL 270920Z 25043G64KT 9999 FEW022 BKN038 13/04 Q0996 NOSIGEGLL 270950Z 25032G46KT 9999 SCT022 BKN038 13/05 Q0997 NOSIGEGLL 271020Z 26039G56KT 9999 -SHRA SCT025 BKN038 13/03 Q0997 NOSIGEGLL 271050Z 25038G55KT 9999 SCT026 BKN038 13/04 Q0998 NOSIGEGLL 271120Z 26034G47KT 9999 SCT028 SCT040 13/04 Q0999 NOSIGEGLL 271150Z 26034G50KT 9999 SCT030 SCT043 13/03 Q1000 NOSIGEGLL 271250Z 26034G48KT 9999 FEW035 SCT043 14/03 Q1002 NOSIGEGLL 271320Z 27027G40KT 9999 SCT038 SCT045 13/03 Q1004 NOSIGEGLL 271350Z 27032G48KT 240V300 9999 SCT038 SCT045 14/03 Q1005 NOSIGEGLL 271420Z 27031G45KT 9999 BKN042 13/02 Q1006 NOSIGEGLL 271450Z 27032G46KT 250V310 9999 BKN042 13/02 Q1008 NOSIGEGLL 271520Z 27025G38KT 9999 BKN042 13/02 Q1010 NOSIGEGLL 271550Z 27025G37KT 9999 FEW036 12/03 Q1011 NOSIGEGLL 271620Z 28023G34KT 9999 FEW035 11/04 Q1013 NOSIGEGLL 271650Z 27023G37KT 250V310 9999 FEW035 11/03 Q1014 NOSIGEGLL 271720Z 28024G36KT 9999 FEW032 11/03 Q1015 NOSIG

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/wind_info.php

 

First Jeanette, now possibly Jude???

 

[Coast]

Media are all over this now like a rash:

 

 

Today, forecasters urged people to prepare for the storm, with some comparing its potential to the Great Storm of 1987 and record-breaking gales in Wales in 1989.

 

Sky weather presenter Jo Wheeler said: "Late October is notorious for strong storms, with a wind gust of 124mph recorded in the Vale of Glamorgan in 1989. "Should this storm achieve its potential, it is likely to bring down trees and to cause damage to roads and buildings, possibly causing major transport disruption and power cuts." Wheeler said the storm was due to develop over the Atlantic in the next 24 hours as a strong jet stream and warm air combine to create a deep low-pressure system.

 

While its trajectory is unclear, there are fears it may hit land, wreaking chaos over England and Wales.If it does make land, it is likely to hit Wales and the South West first before sweeping east and touching most of the country. Exposed coasts in Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Hampshire, West Sussex, East Sussex and Kent are most likely to feel the brunt of the winds. The storm could also miss land completely - sweeping instead through the English Channel.

 

Met Office senior forecaster Helen Chivers said: "Winds of that strength are damaging winds - there will be a risk of damage to homes and trees and disruption to travel. "This is not a storm you see every winter. The storm of 1987 is one, and the Burns day storm in January 1990 is another." Atlantic storms of this type usually develop further west across the ocean, losing strength by the time they reach the UK and Ireland. But this one is unusual in that it is expected to appear much closer to land, potentially moving across the country while it is in its most powerful phase.

 

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1159525/weather-storm-alerts-as-uk-set-for-hurricane

[stevofunnelcl]

If this storm does develop, i wonder if they will give it a name

 

I vote for: Bertie

[alexisj9]

Media are all over this now like a rash:

 

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1159525/weather-storm-alerts-as-uk-set-for-hurricane

For a change I think that's a good thing, however because of the way they normally over play things of no concern what so ever, people may just laugh it off as another exaggeration.

 

The media and weather have a rep for being sensationalist. I do hope people take notice of the warnings on this one.

[Coast]

If this storm does develop, i wonder if they will give it a name

 

I vote for: Bertie

 

It already has one: St Jude

 

http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/Stormwatch-Latest-80mph-St-Jude-Storm-heading-way/story-19988558-detail/story.html

 

 

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather 

"@matthugo81: Latest 72hr FAX is impressive, yet worrying - wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif" quite.

 

.

[Phantom2]

I think when the low links up with the jet we will see "upgrades" in wind strength ..100mph can't be ruled out in my opinion ..major disruption is on the cards folks, if you've not nailed it down yet do it now ..!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

If this storm does develop, i wonder if they will give it a name

 

I vote for: Bertie

 

I was thinking the same but going for Angela, Atlantica or Alantis

[West Sussex Kate]

It already has one: St Jude

St Jude, looks like a nasty storm! Edited October 25, 2013 by West Sussex Kate

[radiohead]

If this storm does develop, i wonder if they will give it a name

 

I vote for: Bertie

 

It looks like it will be named Christian. It's the next name on the list.

 

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/adopt-a-vortex/tief/

[NO LONGER POSTING]

St F****** Jude!!! Waht is that all about??? The states will laugh at us!!!!

[Coast]

St nope - still swearing*** Jude!!! Waht is that all about??? The states will laugh at us!!!!

 

The feast of Saints Simon and Jude is celebrated on 28th October.

 

http://www.carmelite.org/index.php?nuc=content&id=134

 

St Jude is the Patron Saint of desperation and lost causes (and the Chicago Police....)

 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Coast

[SE Blizzards]

Sky news getting in on the act now. Hurricane alert?

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1159525/weather-storm-alerts-as-uk-set-for-hurricane

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1159179/hurricane-speed-winds-threaten-britain

Edited October 25, 2013 by SE Blizzards