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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Meanwhile here is the forecast for South Yorkshire: Mainly dry with sunny spells and light winds. Whodathunkit,huh? I'm so mad, I'm vibrating.

 

Yep we should avoid it in the north thankfully, hopefully it will ease for the south as well 80mph + gales is no fun for anyone especially when people could get killed

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Latest forecast route with regards to the storm from the Met Office;

So they are going with slightly more north then yesterday estimate, that unfortunatly explains the new warning.

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

How come the bbc have the most intense rain over the northern half of the county eg wales ireland northern england

 

Ignore them - they're still on that global warming trip chissakes.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
.

Gav....off topic, but when quoting articles can you please give due acknowledgment to the sources....copyright regs and all that....cheers Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL

So they are going with slightly more north then yesterday estimate, that unfortunatly explains the new warning.

 

Indeed, everything seems to have been shifted very slightly northwards in recent runs - a sure sign of the intensity of this storm.

 

Bish

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Both 00z and 06z GFS alot slower at deepening the low compared to 00z ECM, so this probably why the GFS is having this tendency to track this low further south. The timing of deepening and resultant depth/track across UK dependant on the position of the lef exits and right entrances of the jet streak aloft of the developing low.

 

Precisely what I was attempting to state in my analysis earlier, but you state it in much more descriptive terms. Posted Image By following Nick's suggestion we will be able to track the storm in real time, by using model updates and satellite imagery. All possible from the moment it leaves the Eastern seaboard of USA which should be around midday to 3pm tomorrow and there onwards.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.

My thoughts on Monday.........

 

 

 

 

I'm reserving judgement until at least 3PM on Sunday! Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Gav....off topic, but when quoting articles can you please give due acknowledgment to the sources....copyright regs and all that....cheers Posted Image

 

Whoops genuine mistake I always add links as well

 

Apologies

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Weather: Storm Alerts As UK Set For 'Hurricane'

 

A series of wind, rain and flood alerts are now in place as forecasters predict gales of more than 80mph - classed as hurricane strength.  The Met Office warned people to "be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures". The storm is currently developing over the Atlantic and will potentially hit UK land on Sunday night and into Monday.

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Today, forecasters urged people to prepare for the storm, with some comparing its potential to the Great Storm of 1987 and record-breaking gales in Wales in 1989. Sky weather presenter Jo Wheeler said: "Late October is notorious for strong storms, with a wind gust of 124mph recorded in the Vale of Glamorgan in 1989. "Should this storm achieve its potential, it is likely to bring down trees and to cause damage to roads and buildings, possibly causing major transport disruption and power cuts." Wheeler said the storm was due to develop over the Atlantic in the next 24 hours as a strong jet stream and warm air combine to create a deep low-pressure system. While its trajectory is unclear, there are fears it may hit land, wreaking chaos over England and Wales.

 

If it does make land, it is likely to hit Wales and the South West first before sweeping east and touching most of the country. Exposed coasts in Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Hampshire, West Sussex, East Sussex and Kent are most likely to feel the brunt of the winds. The storm could also miss land completely - sweeping instead through the English Channel. Met Office senior forecaster Helen Chivers said: "Winds of that strength are damaging winds - there will be a risk of damage to homes and trees and disruption to travel. "This is not a storm you see every winter. The storm of 1987 is one, and the Burns day storm in January 1990 is another." Atlantic storms of this type usually develop further west across the ocean, losing strength by the time they reach the UK and Ireland. But this one is unusual in that it is expected to appear much closer to land, potentially moving across the country while it is in its most powerful phase. The storm is expected to strike two weeks later than the Great Storm of 1987, which left a trail of destruction on October 15 and 16.

 

It flattened trees, knocked out power and left 22 people dead in England and France. Forecasters at the time famously failed to predict the severity of the storm.

Not being funny going straight through the channel sounds good, but that would be a storm surge problem. Would be much better if it devloped a lot less then thought for all.

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

Not being funny going straight through the channel sounds good, but that would be a storm surge problem. Would be much better if it devloped a lot less then thought for all.

Luckily we'll be in a neap tide situation then. Posted Image
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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

chissakes? lol

 

so the rain is going to be further south

 

Sorry - my spelling and grammar is usually impeccable, but today I am fuming and have clouded judgement.

Edit. Another mistake in the above. I'm really losing it now.

Edited by laserguy
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

I've seen in a few places the last couple of days reference to the 'Shapiro-Keyser' development of a cyclone and how this might apply to Sunday/Monday. Here's an explanation, see what you think:

 

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/98

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle

Sorry - my spelling and grammar is usually impeccable, but today I am fuming and have clouded judgement.

Edit. Another mistake in the above. I'm really losing it now.

 

was it ment to be cheese cake lol,

 

why you fuming

 

Is this storm the remains of Lorenzo

Edited by Thunder Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Without drawing any comparisons to 1987, there has also been talk of a possible sting-jet and for those that would like to know more about that phenomenon, here's a .pdf download from the Met O:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/p/Sting_Jet_Flyer.PDF

 

Or more on Wiki:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sting_jet

 

This is just for information and no inference is drawn, or implied with the potential St Judes storm on Sunday.

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Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

How come the bbc have the most intense rain over the northern half of the county eg wales ireland northern england

 The heaviest rain, as usual, is likely to be on the northern side of the low.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Its probably fair to say that the models used in 1987 would hardly even be able to predict this event 3 days beforehand.

 

No cray supercomputers back then.

 

not true as you can read about on the Met O web site, 4-5 days out the Met computer had it almost spot on, then it wavered and other Euros gave a better handle on it. An interesting read.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

John - It's looking pretty bad either way (i.e. GFS or ECM are both bad), but if the actual path/development timeline is in the middle of ECM/GFS - am I right in thinking it would potentially be worse in terms of potential impact - and taking the strongest winds over the most populated areas?

 

The path is crucial for the worst element the wind, and this will not be an 90% prediction on accuracy until during tomorrow; it does look on current output that the path shown on the latest Met output, see AWD post is much the most likely

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

How come the bbc have the most intense rain over the northern half of the county eg wales ireland northern england

because that is the most likely area for heavy rain

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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

how come metoffice warning doesn't mention Essex

 

going to magically jump our County ? or are we in a shadow ?

Edited by Buckster
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Posted
  • Location: Woodham Walter Essex,between Danbury and Maldon 42 m asl
  • Location: Woodham Walter Essex,between Danbury and Maldon 42 m asl

You lot in Essex have your very own messiah to follow;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

really glad I am an Atheist!

I don't think Essex is going to miss out,we should be prepared to batten down the hatches as anyone else with a grain of sense should.

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