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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

GFS still really struggling with this feature, with the ECMWF resolution you'd have to edge towards that solution.

 

6z GFS is moving somewhat that direction but still way off.

 

It looks plenty bad enough to me:
 
post-6667-0-79038200-1382686850_thumb.pn
 
post-6667-0-51646900-1382686835_thumb.pn
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

This was the storm of October 2000 where Bognor Regis experienced a tornado and notable structural damage occurred across much Southern Coastal counties. 

One thing to note is that these lows saw around 978mb, so if we are able to see that kind of damage with that synoptic, god knows what might happen this Monday!!

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

06Z GFS shows a more intense low than the 0Z. About 10mb deeper, thus an upgrade for winds along the south coast and in the channel. Still weaker and more southerly than the ECM, UKMO solutions.

 

Comparing the 06Z GFS and 06Z NAE at 48 hours.

 

NAE has a 1000mb low.

 

Posted Image

 

GFS, more elongated and a little weaker

 

Posted Image

Edited by radiohead
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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

GEFS 00z Heathrow Analysis,

 

post-5986-0-68811000-1382696024_thumb.pn

 

Still a considerable drop in the reliability of the depth of this low from GEFS, although, now, it is virtually certain that the pressure, at Heathrow will be somewhere between 975hPa and 981hPa on Monday at 6am; note that there's only about 6hPa in it, now, rather than the > 10hPa that statistical analysis has shown in recent days.

Edited by Sparkicle
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

This was the storm of October 2000 where Bognor Regis experienced a tornado and notable structural damage occurred across much Southern Coastal counties. 

One thing to note is that these lows saw around 978mb, so if we are able to see that kind of damage with that synoptic, god knows what might happen this Monday!!

 

Correct me if i'm wrong but it almost looks as though that hit the same time as this one is forecasted to? I just saw Monday 00:00 before it cut off!  Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

The Exeter-based Met Office has issued an amber alert telling people in the South West to “be prepared†for wind.
 
Spokesman Juliet Gardner said: “There is a risk of a significant storm on Monday morning. We are expecting the strongest winds in a number of years.†A storm is classed as a hurricane when it has sustained winds of 74mph or higher. Mrs Gardner added: “People should tie down any loose furniture objects in their gardens. They should also expect travel disruption including the closure of some bridges.†Unsettled weather is expected to arrive over the weekend with further spells of heavy rain and strong winds.
 
Eddie Carroll, chief forecaster at the Met Office, said: “This storm doesn't exist at the moment, but our forecasts models predict it is likely to develop in the west Atlantic on Saturday.† It is likely to rapidly intensify, due a strong jet stream and warm air, just west of the UK late on Sunday before tracking across England and Wales early on Monday. Mr Carroll added: “There is still a chance this storm may take a more southerly track and miss the UK, bringing impacts elsewhere in northern Europe, but people should be aware there is a risk of severe weather and significant disruption.â€

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

MetO alert update:

 

 

Issued at: 
1117 on Fri 25 Oct 2013
 
Valid from: 
0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013
 
Valid to: 
2100 on Mon 28 Oct 2013
 
A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell of weather for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding.  
 
There is some continuing uncertainty in the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies.
 
A developing storm is expected to reach the UK later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, probably across England and Wales, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. There is the potential for gusts of 60-80 mph quite widely and locally over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in southwesterly winds ahead of the low centre and west to northwesterly winds behind it.
This warning will be updated Saturday morning.

 

 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Correct me if i'm wrong but it almost looks as though that hit the same time as this one is forecasted to? I just saw Monday 00:00 before it cut off!  Posted Image

Yep. I reckon this one could be very similar to the October 2000 one. Tornadoes a distinct possibility in the same areas too, Hampshire across to Kent seeing the biggest threat at the minute. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

 

A larger Amber area now.

 

And this from the Chief Forecaster's assessment :

 

There is the potential for gusts of 60-80 mph quite widely and locally over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts,both in southwesterly winds ahead of the low centre and west to northwesterly winds behind it.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Here comes the MEGASTORM: Devastating 100mph winds to bring 48 hours of ‘utter hell’

 

BRITAIN’S worst storm for almost three decades will bring the nation to a standstill with power cuts and traffic chaos, experts warned last night. Hurricane-force winds of up to 100mph – strong enough to uproot trees, cause severe structural damage and tear down power lines – are expected to hit the UK on Sunday night or Monday morning. As forecasters warned that Britain faces a “historic†storm, the Met Office issued a level-2 amber warning for strong winds along the south coast. It issued lower level-1 yellow warnings for strong winds and rain for almost all the rest of England and Wales. With some forecasters predicting almost two inches of rain, there are fears that floods could add to the chaos. Met Office forecaster Helen Chivers said: “We are looking at a storm similar to the Burns Day storm in January 1990 which saw wind speeds of 92mph.â€

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2814238

Updated amber warning covers a wider area now

 

East Midlands, East of England, London & South East England, South West England, Wales, West Midlands

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382655600

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

GFS now prolonging the period of interest:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

It's not better though:

 

Posted Image

 

Gusts to 116 Km/hr:

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Both 00z and 06z GFS alot slower at deepening the low compared to 00z ECM, so this probably why the GFS is having this tendency to track this low further south. The timing of deepening and resultant depth/track across UK dependant on the position of the lef exits and right entrances of the jet streak aloft of the developing low.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

72mph wind gust for Brighton on Monday

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/brighton-brighton-and-hove#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1382918400

 

Posted Image

 

On the other hand up here we thankfully have significantly lighter winds forecast with top gusts of just 34mph

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington-darlington#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1382918400

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Both 00z and 06z GFS alot slower at deepening the low compared to 00z ECM, so this probably why the GFS is having this tendency to track this low further south. The timing of deepening and resultant depth/track across UK dependant on the position of the lef exits and right entrances of the jet streak aloft of the developing low.

 

Indeed Nick and until we have the 06 and more preferrably the 12z actual data for Saturday for the jet position of right entrance (which is where the low is expected to form), we are all, Met included sort of 'feeling in the dark', let alone where the left exit and all the other parameters for its development start to show.  No one from the senior man at Exeter outwards/downwards to any other centre or web site, can be certain of just what this low is going to do. ALL the evidence at the moment from the overwhelming model data points to a very considerable depression affecting the southern half of the UK.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire 190m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Non Destructive Near My House
  • Location: East Ayrshire 190m ASL

Its probably fair to say that the models used in 1987 would hardly even be able to predict this event 3 days beforehand.

 

No cray supercomputers back then.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

GFS now prolonging the period of interest:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

It's not better though:

 

Posted Image

 

Gusts to 116 Km/hr:

 

Posted Image

It looked like it went through a bit slower in the last run too, I do hope it goes over as quickly as first forcast cause the longer it sticks around, more heavy rain and more flooding.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Its probably fair to say that the models used in 1987 would hardly even be able to predict this event 3 days beforehand.

 

No cray supercomputers back then.

 

They had a CDC-Cyber (grid of 75km/15 levels) which was start of the art at the time. Cray's were introduced in 1991 which enabled (17km/19 levels)

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

Indeed Nick and until we have the 06 and more preferrably the 12z actual data for Saturday for the jet position of right entrance (which is where the low is expected to form), we are all, Met included sort of 'feeling in the dark', let alone where the left exit and all the other parameters for its development start to show. No one from the senior man at Exeter outwards/downwards to any other centre or web site, can be certain of just what this low is going to do. ALL the evidence at the moment from the overwhelming model data points to a very considerable depression affecting the southern half of the UK.

John - It's looking pretty bad either way (i.e. GFS or ECM are both bad), but if the actual path/development timeline is in the middle of ECM/GFS - am I right in thinking it would potentially be worse in terms of potential impact - and taking the strongest winds over the most populated areas? Edited by beng
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

They had a CDC-Cyber (grid of 75km/15 levels) which was start of the art at the time. Cray's were introduced in 1991 which enabled (17km/19 levels)

 

This could potentially cause more damage than the Cray's did.......... Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Latest text update from the met

 

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

 

Remaining very unsettled with sunny spells, squally showers and strong winds throughout. Turning potentially very stormy on Monday in the south, with heavy rain and severe gales developing.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Latest forecast route with regards to the storm from the Met Office;

post-12721-0-31411600-1382698792_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Netweather NMM wind gust charts show things get going a little earlier on the latest run, still potent and still across a great swathe of the South:

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Weather: Storm Alerts As UK Set For 'Hurricane'

 

A series of wind, rain and flood alerts are now in place as forecasters predict gales of more than 80mph - classed as hurricane strength.  The Met Office warned people to "be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures". The storm is currently developing over the Atlantic and will potentially hit UK land on Sunday night and into Monday.

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Today, forecasters urged people to prepare for the storm, with some comparing its potential to the Great Storm of 1987 and record-breaking gales in Wales in 1989. Sky weather presenter Jo Wheeler said: "Late October is notorious for strong storms, with a wind gust of 124mph recorded in the Vale of Glamorgan in 1989. "Should this storm achieve its potential, it is likely to bring down trees and to cause damage to roads and buildings, possibly causing major transport disruption and power cuts." Wheeler said the storm was due to develop over the Atlantic in the next 24 hours as a strong jet stream and warm air combine to create a deep low-pressure system. While its trajectory is unclear, there are fears it may hit land, wreaking chaos over England and Wales.

 

If it does make land, it is likely to hit Wales and the South West first before sweeping east and touching most of the country. Exposed coasts in Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Hampshire, West Sussex, East Sussex and Kent are most likely to feel the brunt of the winds. The storm could also miss land completely - sweeping instead through the English Channel. Met Office senior forecaster Helen Chivers said: "Winds of that strength are damaging winds - there will be a risk of damage to homes and trees and disruption to travel. "This is not a storm you see every winter. The storm of 1987 is one, and the Burns day storm in January 1990 is another." Atlantic storms of this type usually develop further west across the ocean, losing strength by the time they reach the UK and Ireland. But this one is unusual in that it is expected to appear much closer to land, potentially moving across the country while it is in its most powerful phase. The storm is expected to strike two weeks later than the Great Storm of 1987, which left a trail of destruction on October 15 and 16.

 

It flattened trees, knocked out power and left 22 people dead in England and France. Forecasters at the time famously failed to predict the severity of the storm.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1159525/weather-storm-alerts-as-uk-set-for-hurricane

Edited by Summer Sun
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