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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013


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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

GEM

 

Posted Image1.png

 

Welcome to Netweather Nol. Am sure you are hoping this feature tracks North also..

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

As I said in a post above, I don't see this as anything spectacular the GFS over cooked this low several days ago, getting everyone excited and now with maximum gusts of just 72 MPH predicted, it's just another windy day in my opinion. 

 

We will see on Sunday night into Monday morning, I just hope you're right for everyone's sake.....

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

All the ingredients are in place for a notable system to develop, that vital period of final interaction and exit from the jet all important on how this bombs.

 

Jet whilst downgraded a little last night losing some of the more wicked speed in the West Atlantic, looks again this morning back equally as rigorous as earlier in the week.

 

UKMO

post-7292-0-57531300-1382684141_thumb.gi

 

Charts from the 00z runs

 

GFS

post-7292-0-44259400-1382684112_thumb.gipost-7292-0-22594000-1382684120_thumb.gi

 

ECM / GME / GEM

post-7292-0-01703400-1382684137_thumb.gipost-7292-0-93456200-1382684137_thumb.pn post-7292-0-60071700-1382684357_thumb.pn

 

Meteocentre / UKMO

post-7292-0-25140700-1382684140_thumb.gipost-7292-0-62186200-1382684142_thumb.gi

 

As JH mentioned last night for those not up to the wee hours, FAX the way to go to see how the UKMO General model with input from the chief see the feature developing. Ian F put a great post demonstrating the continuity of how the model has tracked this in from 108 hrs out.

 

Hope something less drastic than the extreme verifies here, as fascinating as these systems are to watch them bomb on satellite they can cause upsets. 

 

Satellite animation of this come Sunday evening will be impressive too.  Bookmark this link if you have not done already.http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

 

 

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: Romford / - East London
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/ Snow
  • Location: Romford / - East London

They used a term on GMTV weather

 

"explosive cyclogenesis"  ( often associated with major winter storms and occurs when surface pressure falls by more than about 24 millibars per day. )

 

New term for me to learn :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

"explosive cyclogenesis"  ( often associated with major winter storms and occurs when surface pressure falls by more than about 24 millibars per day. )

 

New term for me to learn Posted Image 

 

It's being touted a lot for this Monday, so here's an explanation of what it means:

 

http://www.eots.co.uk/reports/bomb/bomb01.htm

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Posted
  • Location: Romford / - East London
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/ Snow
  • Location: Romford / - East London

It's being touted a lot for this Monday, so here's an explanation of what it means:

 

http://www.eots.co.uk/reports/bomb/bomb01.htm

 

Thanks for that :)

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

0Z ECMWF looks to be the most intense of this mornings models. And you wouldn't usually bet against the EC at 72 hours.

 

Shows the low down to 964mb in the Irish Sea :

 

Posted Image

 

The simulated cloudcover shows the unmistakable structure of an intense windstorm :
 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

GFS on Lightning Wizard now through to the Sunday night into Monday period on the latest run and it's pretty bad from this selection:

 

post-6667-0-51646900-1382686835_thumb.pn post-6667-0-71202100-1382686840_thumb.pn

 

post-6667-0-21225500-1382686846_thumb.pn  post-6667-0-79038200-1382686850_thumb.pn

 

Not a good scenario and it hasn't backed off for several runs now.

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Met office has upped the max wind gust I am to get once again. Was around 50 (just below) yesterday morning, yesterday evening it was then up to 54mph, and now this morning it's at 62mph. Would you think that's because the low is meant to be more severe, or because they are getting the track more nailed on, and are now being less cautious?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Met office has upped the max wind gust I am to get once again. Was around 50 (just below) yesterday morning, yesterday evening it was then up to 54mph, and now this morning it's at 62mph. Would you think that's because the low is meant to be more severe, or because they are getting the track more nailed on, and are now being less cautious?

 

It's probably due to a number of things, but the latest ECMWF does show a more intense storm this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Deleted

Edited by stewfox
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It seems to be looking more and more grim the closer we are getting. Quite the opposite of how it normally ends up when people are model watching waiting for explosive lows. Even though the GFS doesn't want any of it, I can't help but think that it will change its mind again on the next run. The GFS seems to have changed its mind on the track and intensity more than most of the other models in the last few days regarding this system. That is to be expected of course, but the ECM, UKMO and FAX charts still show Monday to be pretty nasty.

Part of me wants this to happen. It's been too long since we had any storm worth remembering down here. On the other hand, I really do hope everyone stays safe if this does indeed happen on Monday.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

GEM

 

Posted Image1.png

 

Strange that you should post a chart like that up as for several runs, I thought your part of the world would be in line for the worst of it. What are the Dutch authorities making of the storm potential right now? Belgium and Germany too I guess will be bracing themselves. The windiest place to be in the UK could end up being prone spots on the East coast but then again, that's conjecture right now.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Fax.

Posted ImagePPVK89.gif

 

Thanks Steve, 976mb by my reckoning. For all those watching developments, it's worth noting that when it comes to the main event, it's not all about the pressure readings either, other factors come into play when thinking about the top wind speeds.

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Bbc latest says it should track North Cornwall coast to Ipswich area, but stress it could still track 100 miles North or South of that. Can't link from home.

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

Wasn't there a guy on here a coupla months back who said we'd get an end-of-the-world storm at the end of Oct, and who was treated to the same sort of derision as Madden or Corbyn? Where are all the knockers (steady!) now? Gone kinda quiet ain'tcha? 'Course, it's all cobblers for my particular locale - guaranteed- but looking quite promising elsewhere you lucky,lucky people.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Thanks Steve, 976mb by my reckoning. For all those watching developments, it's worth noting that when it comes to the main event, it's not all about the pressure readings either, other factors come into play when thinking about the top wind speeds.

 

Yes, good point. Back in the 90's here we had gusts of 90+ mph from a rapidly developing low with pressure "only" in the mid 970mb range. Sometimes you can get very strong convective gusts from winds higher up that get carried down to the surface level. It doesn't always happen but worth remembering when looking at models gust predictions that are based on pressure difference that doesn't take convective gusts into account.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

well looking at the early positions as it moves across the Atlantic, there are changes. The initial start position is kept pretty identical as is the depth. It is somewhat slower and a bit deeper then but from 12z Sunday out to 12z Monday the depth and track across the UK are fairly similar. What does seem different on the projections this morning is its position at 00z Monday, now shown as below 976mb about 51.5N 7W but its position and depth for 12z Monday is only about 60 miles east of where they positioned it last evening, then it was 57N02e now it looks about 57n 03 e similar depth to the previous issue at <964mb. Thus the final 12 hours, the important bit for the UK shows a rather different track.

This morning suggests Bristol Channel approaches - Liverpool Bay area to 57N 03E rather than Shannon-Isle of Man to 57N 03E.

So still time for final adjustments which are all important as to which swathe of the country gets the strongest wind and heaviest rain. But certainly seems little idea with the Met O output for any decrease in the intensity of this deep low.

Again come later Saturday through Sunday we can track its actual position and depth  giving a fair idea of which track over the Uk it will take. Back to basics for any professional forecaster.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Bbc latest says it should track North Cornwall coast to Ipswich area, but stress it could still track 100 miles North or South of that. Can't link from home.

 

I have this:

 

 

 

Storm warning for England and Wales
 
Strong winds and heavy rain predicted for Monday could cause disruption across Wales and southern England, according to forecasters. The Met Office issued an amber alert for wind and there is also concern that heavy rain could cause flooding. It warned people to "be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures" caused by strong winds. There is uncertainty about the timing of the storm at this stage.
 
But Nick Miller from the BBC Weather Centre said it "could be a particularly nasty weather system", adding its "most likely track" was through the middle of England and Wales.Forecasters say there is potential for gusts of wind over 80mph, especially on exposed coasts in Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Hampshire, West Sussex, East Sussex and Kent.
 
Rain warning
 
Northern England, the Midlands, southern England and Wales have also been issued with a yellow warning for rain on Monday. Yellow alerts are the lowest level of the three warnings.
 
Storm clouds
 
There is uncertainty as to what time the storm will hit at this stage The Met Office said people in those areas should "be aware of the potential for surface water flooding" because of the rain. The Met Office's chief forecaster said: "A strong, high-level jet is expected to engage warm low level air to give rise to a rapidly moving low pressure system later on Sunday. "This is expected to run north-eastwards, probably across England and Wales, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. 
"There is the potential for gusts of over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in south-westerly winds ahead of the low and west to north-westerly winds behind it."

 

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24654390

 

Much the same as their view through yesterday and about spot on with the degree of caution against the possible consequences.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Hello all.

 

Just as other posts such as Lorenzo's have alluded to, we need to look at Northern Hemisphere Jetstream interactions with this potential storm, in order to understand which path it is currently projected to take.

 

I am solely dealing with the GFS 0z output for this run, which on the face of it, speeds its progress up and maybe weakens it a tad, maybe, maybe not?

 

Firstly the NH Jetstream profile at 1500hrs on Saturday. The black cross and encircled area of red mark the approximate position of our storm at said timeframe.

 

post-7183-0-60293800-1382691153_thumb.pn

 

Just twelve hours later at 0300hrs on Sunday, it is projected to be in the following position.

 

post-7183-0-43713000-1382691238_thumb.pn

 

At 1500hrs on Sunday, the 0z NH Jetstream, it shows the following.

 

post-7183-0-28798300-1382691473_thumb.pn

 

Now look at where it is anticipated to be positioned at t+75hrs, i.e. 3am on Monday morning.

 

post-7183-0-65500900-1382691556_thumb.pn

 

And finally by 3pm on Monday, only at 87 hours timeframe on this run, its departing the North Sea.

 

post-7183-0-69051100-1382691659_thumb.pn

 

 

 

The finer details will not be known until late Saturday and probably into Sunday, however I would advise following the position of the Jetstream interactions and the official MetO Fax chart outputs as the best routes for information purposes.

 

Take Care

 

gottolovethisweather

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Bbc latest says it should track North Cornwall coast to Ipswich area, but stress it could still track 100 miles North or South of that. Can't link from home.

On that basis, let's have a fun call on its track.....I'm going to adjust it south so it will exit south of Norfolk/Suffolk.  Off to Swansea, ofline and catch you all after the event

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

On that basis, let's have a fun call on its track.....

 

Sorry, can't see any fun in this potential I'm afraid. 

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