Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

    I've been excited over a good storm for too long now and read the ooohaaas on netweather for it to be a blink and you'll miss it afair

     

    Would like to be proved wrong this time

     

    Well I'm on your side, Vic! A total non-event for us right from the start and even if the prognostics were otherwise it'd still be the same - guaranteed. Tempting fate? You bet I am. I'll tell the missus not to bother weighing the bin down.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 876
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

    I've been excited over a good storm for too long now and read the ooohaaas on netweather for it to be a blink and you'll miss it afair

     

    Would like to be proved wrong this time

     

    Be careful what you wish for Neil..........

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    GEFS forecast track of the low;

    post-12721-0-59211500-1382646978_thumb.j

    Edited by AWD
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    Don't feed the troll! Posted Image

     

    I'm a troll?

     

    haha

     

    I'm making a stand due to the epic failings of every storm being forecasted and being nothing like as such.... I'm still waiting for my SEVERE WEATHER WARNING 10CM+ HIGH RISK BLIZZARDS IN PLACES ;)

    Anyway we shall see :)

    Well I'm on your side, Vic! A total non-event for us right from the start and even if the prognostics were otherwise it'd still be the same - guaranteed. Tempting fate? You bet I am. I'll tell the missus not to bother weighing the bin down.

     

    Noted!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lowestoft
  • Location: Near Lowestoft

    Southernman has described the Selsey tornado to me, he was living there.

     

     

    Weird it was. I was sitting on the edge of my bed at about 11.50 pm. I said to my other half about the patter of hailstones on the window. All of a sudden they were the size of marbles and bigger so I moved back away from the window. My OH had already ducked under the covers ! Then there was this roaring noise and it felt like the wall and windows were going to be sucked out then it seemed like they were pushed the opposite way. The windows didn't break, thank goodness, but the walls had cracked on some room corners and the cracks were big enough to get your fingers in. From floor to ceiling. Some are still able to be seen.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    lets keep things a: on topic.....& b: polite please...................you know the score....ta! Posted Image

    Edited by ajpoolshark
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge

    If memory serves me correctly the Great Storm (87) gave rise to the 'sting jet' theory.... hang on let me find a description.

     

    A sting jet is a meteorological phenomenon which is believed to be the cause of the most damaging winds in European windstorms.

    Following reanalysis of the Great Storm of 1987, led by Professor Keith Browning at the University of Reading, researchers identified a mesoscale flow where the most damaging winds were shown to be emanating from the evaporating tip of the hooked cloud head on the southern flank of the cyclone. This cloud, hooked like a scorpion's tail, gives the wind region its name the "Sting Jet".[1]

    It is thought that a zone of strong winds, originating from within the mid-tropospheric cloud head of an explosively deepening depression, are enhanced further as the "jet" descends, drying out and evaporating a clear path through snow and ice particles. The evaporative cooling leading to the air within the jet becoming denser, leading to an acceleration of the downward flow towards the tip of the cloud head when it begins to hook around the cyclone centre. Windspeeds in excess of 80 kn (150 km/h) can be associated with the Sting jet.[2]

    It has since been reproduced in high-resolution runs with the mesoscale version of the Unified Model. The Sting jet is distinct from the usual strong-wind region associated with the warm conveyor belt and main cold front. There are indications that conditional symmetric instability also plays a role in its formation but the importance of these processes remains to be quantified.[3][4]

    One storm, Cyclone Tilo (November 6-11, 2007) has also been analysed and found not to display a sting jet, despite displaying strong surface winds and a fractured cold front.[4]

     

    Source Wikipedia.

     

     

    I'm trying to figure out wether we'll be in the same territory again this weekend...

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Unusual to have an amber warning this early, I wonder if this could be a stonker or not.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    1987 hurricane is raging, trees falling, etc, my cousin decides she is going into labour in the middle of it.lol.

     

    It brings them on, don't you know, or so I've heard. Deep lows make the ladie's scream and shout, well at least if they're expectant mothers. Posted Image

     

    Sorry for bringing this thread down to less stormy ground. Posted Image

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    I'm a troll?

     

    haha

     

    I'm making a stand due to the epic failings of every storm being forecasted and being nothing like as such.... I'm still waiting for my SEVERE WEATHER WARNING 10CM+ HIGH RISK BLIZZARDS IN PLACES Posted Image

    Anyway we shall see Posted Image

     

    Noted!

    Neil, surely it is better to go with the opinion that even though other forecast storms have failed to materialise quite as expected and modeled, it is better not to assume that this will be the case this time. In that way not only do you get your point across, but you also respect the fact and other posters concerns, that this could be a potentially dangerous storm should the modeling be correct at this point.

     

    Just as well that you are not the chief forecaster!!

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    If memory serves me correctly the Great Storm (87) gave rise to the 'sting jet' theory.... hang on let me find a description.

     

    A sting jet is a meteorological phenomenon which is believed to be the cause of the most damaging winds in European windstorms.

    Following reanalysis of the Great Storm of 1987, led by Professor Keith Browning at the University of Reading, researchers identified a mesoscale flow where the most damaging winds were shown to be emanating from the evaporating tip of the hooked cloud head on the southern flank of the cyclone. This cloud, hooked like a scorpion's tail, gives the wind region its name the "Sting Jet".[1]

    It is thought that a zone of strong winds, originating from within the mid-tropospheric cloud head of an explosively deepening depression, are enhanced further as the "jet" descends, drying out and evaporating a clear path through snow and ice particles. The evaporative cooling leading to the air within the jet becoming denser, leading to an acceleration of the downward flow towards the tip of the cloud head when it begins to hook around the cyclone centre. Windspeeds in excess of 80 kn (150 km/h) can be associated with the Sting jet.[2]

    It has since been reproduced in high-resolution runs with the mesoscale version of the Unified Model. The Sting jet is distinct from the usual strong-wind region associated with the warm conveyor belt and main cold front. There are indications that conditional symmetric instability also plays a role in its formation but the importance of these processes remains to be quantified.[3][4]

    One storm, Cyclone Tilo (November 6-11, 2007) has also been analysed and found not to display a sting jet, despite displaying strong surface winds and a fractured cold front.[4]

     

    Source Wikipedia.

     

     

    I'm trying to figure out wether we'll be in the same territory again this weekend...

     

    For what it's worth, a poster on UKWW (Dave W) suggested that very strong winds higher up could travel down to the surface in convective gusts :

     

    Worth noting theres some limited instability suggested in the GFs 12Z op early Monday in the warm sector or developing seclusion as the low deepens quickly and unusually strong winds just above the surface at the 925mb level of 85kt/100mph nr Channel Isles.. there might be a suggestion that incised convection could have the potential to bring these winds down to the surface .. ie) not the behaviour of a classicly Norwegian/Bjerknes depression

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Mind you Its a fine line between wanting interesting weather and hoping people are safe I suppose.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

     A couple at Bunn Leisure in Selsey too.

     

    http://beautifulbeach.bunn-leisure.co.uk/webcam.aspx

    Thanks for the link, can never have too many webcams when it is stormy. Selsey sticks out into the Channel further than Bognor so may catch the weather more, depends which direction the wind comes from. Nice to have a cam facing east and one west too!

    Edited by coldfingers
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge

    During my digging around I have just put to bed an event I remember as a small child (4-5 yrs). I remember fence panels flipping end over end down the street during a monster gale. Scared the crap out of me back then... turn out to be the Gale of January 1976...

     

    In the midlands this was a bigger event than the 1987 storm, maybe it just sticks in my mind seeing those fence panels suspended in the air.

     

    Does anyone else remember this one?

     

    Sorry to derail the topic but i'm really pleased that I have a date for an event I was starting to think I imagined.

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

    Normally at this time of night I get really frustrated with the FAX charts as the 72, 84 and 96 hours are all showing the chart for the same time.  Tonight however we can look at the differences between what was expected 36, 24 1=and 12 hours ago.

     

    The gif below loops between the 3 charts, I think the thing I notice most is that whereas on the 96 and 84 hour charts there are 2 distinct frontal regions associated with this low, by the time we get to the T72 chart, there is a fairly complex triple point with much more warm air entrained in the Warm sector of the low.  I' also drawn to the closeness of the 564 and 546 DAM lines and the fact they get closer as the charts get newer.  There looks as though there is an awful lot of rain tied up with this and the only thing that will prevent (too much) flooding is the speed at which it's being driven by the Jetstream

     

     

    post-9318-0-08529400-1382648781_thumb.gi

     

    Positioning wise, it hasn't changed very much which would suggest the Met has a reasonably handle on it  --  hence the early Amber Warnings

     

    the gif looks as though it's running in the wrong order, the 96 hr is the oldest 72 hour the youngest

    Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Lowestoft
  • Location: Near Lowestoft

    Thanks for the link, can never have too many webcams when it is stormy. Selsey sticks out into the Channel further than Bognor so may catch the weather more, depends which direction the wind comes from. Nice to have a cam facing east and one west too!

     

    Thanks for the link, can never have too many webcams when it is stormy. Selsey sticks out into the Channel further than Bognor so may catch the weather more, depends which direction the wind comes from. Nice to have a cam facing east and one west too!

    One of my daughters is acting reception manager at Bunn Leisure. I'll be phoning her on Monday to make sure all is ok. As you live down that way I'm sure you can appreciate that even on a very windy day the weather can cause havoc down there.

    Edited by Southernman
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

    One of my daughters is acting reception manager at Bunn Leisure. I'll be phoning her on Monday to make sure all is ok. As you live down that way I'm sure you can appreciate that even on a very windy day the weather can cause havoc down there.

    It sure can Southernman and Selsey has had more than it's fair share of flooding problems too. I may head that way at low tide after the storms to look for any fossils exposed on the beach. NO not old people I don't mean. Being nearly one I can say that. Posted Image  Now I have to check the location of the cam.

    Edited by coldfingers
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    The new 96 hour FAX is out. The low looks to be 964mb there.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Looks to be a more northerly track there too.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Lets see what this 18z run will have for us. If it becomes a more intense 'bomb' then the alarm bells will be starting to ring!

    Early in the run yet, but is it me, or does it look like it is gathering momentum much earlier than projected on previous runs?Posted Image

    Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Looks to be a more northerly track there too.

     

    Not that I've seen it but the chart prior to that one (-6 hours) would have taken its path straight through the bulk of Central England, would it not? Posted Image Posted Image

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...