Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

[alexisj9]

Never mind the gusts, the mean wind speeds right in the far South East are not far off 70 on this run.

Not looking forward to this if anything like the 18z happens, I'm in that zone.

[SteveCoops]

Good point about the turbines - be a good test of that new wind farm just off the coast!

[feb1991blizzard]

Not looking forward to this if anything like the 18z happens, I'm in that zone.

I would swap you!

[Captain Shortwave]

Well NAVGEM has somehow managed to be even worse on the 18z

Starting to head towards sub 960mb central pressure here 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Just Before Dawn]

Neap tides ATM so maybe not as good as some storms!

 

Indeed, though with the pressure, you can add 50cm to tide table predictions.  With the wind strength and the longer fetch from the Bay of Biscay, it'll still be pretty spectacular.  What it won't likely be is the sort of dangerous sustained storm surge you'd get on a spring tide. 

[Iceni]

I'm in that 92 MPH area and I live on top of a hill  

 

 

 

Just like us in West Sussex (we lived above the village of Fernhurst).

 

The wind was truly weird the way the valley to the south channelled it. Our neighbour's whole very heavy brick chimney stack was just lifted clear of their roof and dumped in the front of the house on the lawn. They were very lucky it was lifted as if it had rolled down the roof it would have crashed through into their bedroom. After that, this wind went straight up their drive and snapped a whole plantation of 12" diameter pine trunks off 5 foot from the ground like matchsticks. Trees a couple of metres either side were untouched.

 

Out house was about 50 yards away and all that happened was we lost a few tiles from the roof.

 

But seriously, fill your bath and as many containers with drinking water beforehand, we didn't have wheelie bins in those days, but if one is cleaned out thoroughly it holds a lot of water — if it's bad you can forget about the bin men. As likely as not the electricity will be knocked out and there'll be nothing to pump it up the hill. No electricity is just about bearable, but no water is not.

 

Also we thought the leccy would be back after a week or so, but there was so much devastation that it was 6 weeks the council and power workers were going from substation to substation clearing branches and lines and getting them working again — as 8 million trees had come down, it was a long job. The only reason our water was restored after 12 days was because there was a nursing home for elderly along the common, otherwise we'd have had to wait a lot longer.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Iceni

[Biggin]

I suspect towards Monday the storm will be a lot more realistic in terms of strength and will probably turn out to be nothing more than strong winds and heavy rain. Always going to be the risk (a substantial risk) of flooding which will probably be more of a risk than damage from winds.

Not trusting that.

[Infil50]

How will Hayling Island fair in this? I'm asking because I'm actually in our caravan now 0.8miles from sea front.

[bobbydog]

This is quite severe for the southeast. 80-90mph nonconvective gusts. Hopefully the GFS is overdoing it on this run.

 

 

it could well be. if so, we do have plenty of warning so do the right thing. put anything away which might blow away. don't go out if you don't have to. (as exhilarating as a storm can be- a smack on the head by a large tree branch will ruin your day) most of all DON'T GO CAMPING!!

[radiohead]

Well NAVGEM has somehow managed to be even worse on the 18z

Starting to head towards sub 960mb central pressure here 

 

964mb :

 

 

It's only ~3mb deeper than the 18Z GFS, but the isobars are more tightly packed.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking at this now, this really could be giving the great storm a pretty good run for its money...

 

Starting to get a tad worried now !

[Cyclonic]

Could anyone tell me how the Isle of wight could potentially be affected please..Im on the south side of the island literally 2 minute walk from seafront

[Chess01]

Hope those down south are ok. What will the action be like in the stoke/north midlands area be like

[Biggin]

Im hoping it goes abit further north, the current run looks as it its going directly over the top of me... not had some good high winds here for a while so im buzzing for this! 

As I said before the strongest winds aint in the centre of the low.

[SNOW GO]

Hope those down south are ok. What will the action be like in the stoke/north midlands area be like

Heavy/torrential rain with a localised flooding risk coupled with strong winds although not as strong as further south.

[coldfingers]

 

I'm in that 92 MPH area and I live on top of a hill  

 

 

 

Just like us in West Sussex (we lived above the village of Fernhurst).

 

The wind was truly weird the way the valley to the south channelled it. Our neighbour's whole very heavy brick chimney stack was just lifted clear of their roof and dumped in the front of the house on the lawn. They were very lucky it was lifted as if it had rolled down the roof it would have crashed through into their bedroom. After that, this wind went straight up their drive and snapped a whole plantation of 12" diameter pine trunks off 5 foot from the ground like matchsticks. Trees a couple of metres either side were untouched.

 

Out house was about 50 yards away and all that happened was we lost a few tiles from the roof.

 

But seriously, fill your bath and as many containers with drinking water beforehand, we didn't have wheelie bins in those days, but if one is cleaned out thoroughly it holds a lot of water — if it's bad you can forget about the bin men. As likely as not the electricity will be knocked out and there'll be nothing to pump it up the hill. No electricity is just about bearable, but no water is not.

 

Also we thought the leccy would be back after a week or so, but there was so much devastation that it was 6 weeks the council and power workers were going from substation to substation clearing branches and lines and getting them working again — as 8 million trees had come down, it was a long job. The only reason our water was restored after 12 days was because there was a nursing home for elderly along the common, otherwise we'd have had to wait a lot longer.

 

Icene, that sort of damage sounds more like a tornado touching down for a short while, especially the chimney lifting over the roof.

Could anyone tell me how the Isle of wight could potentially be affected please..Im on the south side of the island literally 2 minute walk from seafront

I personally would have thought the South side of the I.O.W. would catch it pretty badly. Be careful and stay safe.

[radiohead]

[Biggin]

It's worth remembering that the actual centre of the low pressure is not where the strongest winds are. Due to various forces Coriolis, friction etc the southerly flank/side of this low will be where the most damaging gusts/winds will hit. That's why our watch highlights Channel coastal counties specifically - at the moment

 

Have a look on Netweather Extra (if you subscribe) NMM 18 Winds gusts and Windspeed/direction (t+66 +69), you can see the quieter centre and red gusts to south

What i said Jo , having the centre of the storm over you is not the best place to be for strong winds,

[paul m]

Could anyone tell me how the Isle of wight could potentially be affected please..Im on the south side of the island literally 2 minute walk from seafront

For a start huge impact on Ferry sailings to the mainland, Power outages, Trees down etc. As people have already said BE PREPARED with bottled water candles etc

Edited October 25, 2013 by paul m

[Iceni]

do you think wwe might  see a few runaway  wind turbines in the south coast .....

 

 

 

I'd be very surprised if the much trumpeted brand new London Array comes out unscathed. They are 400 m high and if the sea's moving around their foundations (it must have some affect) they'll be highly unstable. So that's about £1,6 billion at risk or down the pan after just a few months. Well done Ed Davey — moron.

 

On the bright side, it might be the death knell for the damn things. Wind turbines which can't cope with... err wind...

Edited October 25, 2013 by Iceni

[Tamara]

Not looking forward to this if anything like the 18z happens, I'm in that zone.

Yes - the output overall is getting worse and worse for us in this far SE corner. Very very worrying.

[Biggin]

I live in a park in west London surrounded by trees, and so like many others will prob have a restless night on Sunday!

Make sure you get your place on the bench Ruthie

[Cyclonic]

Thanks guys, i shall be heading out 2moro and stocking up on a few essentials then, i live in hope that it wont get as bad as lots have been saying, im pretty exposed down here  :o((((

[suffolkboy_]

 

 

 

On the bright side, it might be the death knell for the damn things. Wind turbines which can't cope with... err wind...

 

 

Like this one?.......

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMNqjirbWoQ

[johnholmes]

The Fax charts maintain much the same track of the last 24 hours although the latest 12z Monday position is about 4mb higher and 4 degrees further east than the previous one. Again UK Met are consistent with their most likely track. Nothing showing in the models to alter that view either.

Tomorrow will see the most likely wind speeds showing with a very strong probability of them occurring so a red warning is quite probable from them I would think although Jo may be able to give more information on that.

It is going to be the worst storm over southern districts for some years that does now seem certain. Wind being the major issue although temporary surface flooding may also occur on the nothern side of the low, the severe winds on its southern side.