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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

I'll be joining near you area on Monday. Also, I think rainfall is going to be much more of a problem than wind in Cheshire on Monday.

 

 

I am in Tyne and Wear though Wills lol ;-))  Heavy torrential rain forecast up to now but as ever this could change!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

The winds have to be stronger than about 80mph to cause any serious damage in my experience, no chance 60-70mph will uproot any trees.

 

Oh dear! I'd probably edit that before you get a strip torn off. We've had trees coming down here on a few days during this recent spell of unsettled weather, the gusts have been no higher than 45mph.  The majority of them are still full of leaves and the ground is quite soft due to recent rainfall, 60 to 70mph will cause problems in this neck of the woods, 80+ will be a messy situation. 

Lot's of blase posts about it tonight, lets see what happens by the end of Monday eh? Posted Image

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

The winds have to be stronger than about 80mph to cause any serious damage in my experience, no chance 60-70mph will uproot any trees.

Around Cumbria and the North you are probably right, but there hasn't been a storm of this potential down South for at least 6 years, trees put on an awful lot of weight in 6 years if a good blow doesn't keep them in check  (I know, softy southern trees.....)

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Guest William Grimsley

This looks pretty similar to me. No mention of 60 mph gusts on Sunday. Maybe, I might no miss anything after all, here.

 

UK wind speed/dir (streams). Valid: Sun 27/10 12:00.

 

Posted Image

 

UK wind speed/dir (streams). Valid: Mon 28/10 6:00.

 

Posted Image

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

Oh dear! I'd probably edit that before you get a strip torn off. We've had trees coming down here on a few days during this recent spell of unsettled weather, the gusts have been no higher than 45mph.  The majority of them are still full of leaves and the ground is quite soft due to recent rainfall, 60 to 70mph will causes problems in this neck of the woods, 80+ will be a messy situation. 

Lot's of blase posts about it tonight, lets see what happens by the end of Monday eh? Posted Image

west cumbria have bore the brunt of many storms and thats just what iv experienced, dont get upset. 

Around Cumbria and the North you are probably right, but there hasn't been a storm of this potential down South for at least 6 years, trees put on an awful lot of weight in 6 years if a good blow doesn't keep them in check  (I know, softy southern trees.....)

you could be right

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Oh dear! I'd probably edit that before you get a strip torn off. We've had trees coming down here on a few days during this recent spell of unsettled weather, the gusts have been no higher than 45mph.  The majority of them are still full of leaves and the ground is quite soft due to recent rainfall, 60 to 70mph will causes problems in this neck of the woods, 80+ will be a messy situation. 

Lot's of blase posts about it tonight, lets see what happens by the end of Monday eh? Posted Image

 

Its not a definitive science anyway, all these questions have to be answered before you can determine whether trees would be uprooted, how deep are the roots? how much does it weigh?, what the ground is like?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

west cumbria have bore the brunt of many storms and thats just what iv experienced, dont get upset. 

 

I'm far from upset lol

There just seems to be one or two posts tonight, along the lines of "We're harder than you lot down South, we get this all the time up here" :lol: 

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

I'm far from upset lol

There just seems to be one or two posts tonight, along the lines of "We're harder than you lot down South, we get this all the time up here" Posted Image

Aye ok pal.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Windiest day of the month an unimpressive 42 mph. Will Sunday beat it?

ECM plays around with another low in FI at T144 which may effect places slightly further north while giving the south another blast of the hair dryer.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl

It's never as bad as they say. I'm determined to complete my sail from Cornwall to the scilly isles on Monday

I'm really not sure what to make of this to be honest. I would like to think that Mr Sykes is a regular and generous donator to the likes of the RNLI though.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Looking at ECMWF data, south coast of England sees sustained wind around 50-60mph with gusts to 80/90mph.

 

Inland southern England, sustained winds 35-50mph gusting to 70mph or 80mph in exposed areas.

 

Also parts of western Wales affected by tail of storm with gusts to 70/80mph along the coast as winds

back northwest.

Edited by Matty M
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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

The winds have to be stronger than about 80mph to cause any serious damage in my experience, no chance 60-70mph will uproot any trees.

 

Indeed I said a similar thing last night and got hounded for it, I guess all the trees in the far south must be of a delicate tropical nature or not part of the species we have up north? Posted Image

Edited by Gaz1985
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Indeed I said a similar thing last night and got hounded for it, I guess all the trees in the far south must be of a delicate tropical nature or not part of the species we have up north? Posted Image

 

Some of them are!

 

I'm off to tend to my banana tree, bbl! Posted Image  

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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

Indeed I said a similar thing last night and got hounded for it, I guess all the trees in the far south must be of a delicate tropical nature or not part of the species we have up north? Posted Image

Or maybe your trees are more used to inclement weather?  I used to live in Wales and a 60 or 70mph gust might break a branch, but as they happened 2-5 times a year, the trees roots were stronger and the branches thicker.

 

As has been pointed out before, it's been at least 6 or 7 years since there was a storm of this potential down here, the ground is wet, the trees are still in leaf and they do not have the battering that they get further North.

 

If this storm reaches it's expected strength  AND the track remains where it is, I'd expect a significant amount of disruption.

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Posted
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex

One thing you have to remember is that a lot of the exposed coasts in the west/north of the UK receive a lot more pounding from wind than the south and inland areas from midlands downards. If a weak tree in the north is regulary pounded it will fall, so generally all the weaker ones are slowly picked off. In the South and inland we rarely see something of this strength so if it were to come of then we will most probably see a lot more trees downed here than the same strength storm hitting the north.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

12Z ECM simulated cloudcover at 63 hours, showing the classic structure of an intense windstorm. You usually see the likes of this off the west coast of Scotland, rather than heading up into the Celtic Sea.

 

Posted Image

 

'Oratia' (2000) for comparison :

 

Posted Image

Edited by radiohead
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I have been lurking for 3+ years, following mostly snow events which I love (and T-Storms!!), but I have to say this event really worries me!

 

First experience of a severe storm was somewhere between 1976-78, living on north norfolk coast (golf club right on beach) and wind drove waves down chimney of golf club we lived in, had to evacuate in early hours of morning, me a toddler on neighbours neck walking up coast road in 4+ feet of (not normal tidal) water, storm surge flooded main coastal roads and worse flooding the mile or so closer to the beach.

 

Then was 1987; totally unexpected; day off school, yay! but then in early daylight hours, bits of our (30ish year old house) started breaking off; many roof tiles lost, flying off as projectiles, greenhouse ended up in bits in many gardens, broken windows and conservatory, triple glazed roof ended up at bottom of the garden, only fitted a few years before.

 

Then was 1990; much the same as 1987, but not quite as bad; conservatory roof barely held, but my brother fell through it trying to pick up broken roof tiles off it the following day, so needed replacing again. Father was at work in 8 story tower block which moved in wind enough to make him feel nauseous; wind caused serious chimney fire with ember bits flying everywhere, called fire brigade, they came out, but they said to let it burn out as was too dangerous to do anything else unless it spread.

 

Maybe 2000? In my current house; strong winds which blew the carpets up off the floor an inch or two through the air bricks in the bottom of the walls; no damage, but many neighbours had some minor stuff, like fences blown out, roof tiles off etc. I have not heard those "howling" winds since then, and hope I don't on Monday!

 

Really hoping this turns out to be nothing more than in recent years!!

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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

That and the fact we put concrete around the base of our trees !!!!

 

Errrm trees of any size can snap from the middle in storm force winds, not just from the base.

 

Or maybe your trees are more used to inclement weather?  I used to live in Wales and a 60 or 70mph gust might break a branch, but as they happened 2-5 times a year, the trees roots were stronger and the branches thicker.

 

As has been pointed out before, it's been at least 6 or 7 years since there was a storm of this potential down here, the ground is wet, the trees are still in leaf and they do not have the battering that they get further North.

 

If this storm reaches it's expected strength  AND the track remains where it is, I'd expect a significant amount of disruption.

 

I don't know, if anything it might make roots weaker over time. I don't think trees gain any "experience" or know what's hits them, they don't really have a brain of sorts.

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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

Much as I think your enthusiasm for devastating storms is borderline perverse, and that your username should really be "Twistedgirl", I'm inclined to agree! Posted Image

 

I think that is a bit harsh. A storm (like this one might turn out to be) is a life experience.

 

I'm sorry for the loss of life in the 1987 storm and would prefer it not to have happened (I slept right through it) but would not have missed the experience of its aftermath for the world. We lived without any electricity for 6 weeks and no water for 12 days.

 

It was like being ripped back in time and has made me appreciate all the things we take for granted, like TV, having enough light to do things by after sunset, being able to hoover a carpet or iron one's clothes. More importantly, I learned to cope without them. There's something very satisfying about that, knowing you can get by without the conveniences of modern life.

 

Advice: if you live on a hill, fill the bath with water beforehand. Water's pumped uphill by electricity and if the pump's knocked out, you won't have any after you've used your tank. Similarly with lavatories, don't flush away wee, it's a waste of water, just flush once or twice a day and fill the cistern afterwards. Sorry to get basic, but it does make life easier.

Edited by Iceni
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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

 I guess all the trees in the far south must be of a delicate tropical nature or not part of the species we have up north? Posted Image

I didn't know there were any tree's up North ?

I was under the impression they had all been chopped down to make huts ?

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Posted
  • Location: Strumble Head Pembrokeshire 60m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and hot sun
  • Location: Strumble Head Pembrokeshire 60m asl

Looking at ECMWF data, south coast of England sees sustained wind around 50-60mph with gusts to 80/90mph.

 

Inland southern England, sustained winds 35-50mph gusting to 70mph or 80mph in exposed areas.

 

Also parts of western Wales affected by tail of storm with gusts to 70/80mph along the coast as winds

back northwest.

Do you have any charts with this data on you can post? Would be very interesting for me to view, and I haven't a clue where to lookPosted Image .

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