South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/10/13 ------------>

[Jax]

Overhead message boards along the northern section of the M25 are already warning of the strong winds forecast.

 

 

Yep. Saw them on M11 and M1 too.

 

 

Still fully expect by Monday evening the news to be full of images and articles on "high siders" that went out anyway despite the warnings and are now on their sides blocking all the roads etc etc.

[suffolkboy_]

At the moment my thoughts are it will not be as bad as 87, but not far off it, the other thing is in 87 people were just not prepared for what we got, lessons have been learnt since and we have been better warned of what to expect, think it best to take the worst case scenario and that way anything better is a good thing IMHO.

 

Trust me. This is going to be nothing like 1987, nowhere near. I can't see a 122mph gust occurring anywhere in the UK this time around!

 

I said it a couple of days ago and still stand by my thoughts now. The storm will be downgraded from what is forecast now. It will take a more southerly track. NAE has already hinted at this this morning (remember this is high resolution). Expect large changes in the forecast in the next 24 hours with the strongest of the winds being south of the UK. The south coast may still see gusts of 70mph plus but I can't see anything too extreme happening inland.

 

By all means though, don't take the warnings any less seriously, stay prepared for the worst.

[Steve C]

I'm pretty sure the 122mph figure was taken from an instrument found later to be unreliable. I think the strongest reliable recording in UK in 87 was something like 116 mph on south coast. Normandy recorded over 135mph tho!

[Iceni]

Wish I could, unfortunately she is in a wheelchair since having a stroke and I live in a home with 2 staircases and carrying her between rooms and up and down stairs is beyond us these days. She elected to have her home adapted rather than move into a care home or move back to London and due to work, moving to her isn't an option.

She had the stroke during the snow event in November '10. She didn't notice the temperature dropping so she got hypothermia, then a blood clot=stroke.

She has a great bunch of carers who visit, and good neighbours.

 

Mum loves wet wild windy weather and will probably be up all night, wheelchair by the windows watching the sea. She does the same with snow.

 

I see - she's better off where she is. Poor Mum. Let's hope the neighbours and carers do their stuff and she's safe. What appalling bad luck about the stroke - I'd say keep away from the windows tho'

 

Regarding preparations: just get everything you need electricity for, done today and tomorrow, as you might not have it next week. I'm going to hoover everywhere and do the ironing. I've done all the washing already. We have an Aga but if the power's off its thermostat goes haywire so we might have to used the camper van's gas to cook with and it's got a gas fire too. That will be weird - living in the camper van - with the house next door.

Edited October 26, 2013 by Iceni

[Timbo]

Trust me. This is going to be nothing like 1987, nowhere near. I can't see a 122mph gust occurring anywhere in the UK this time around!

 

I said it a couple of days ago and still stand by my thoughts now. The storm will be downgraded from what is forecast now. It will take a more southerly track. NAE has already hinted at this this morning (remember this is high resolution). Expect large changes in the forecast in the next 24 hours with the strongest of the winds being south of the UK. The south coast may still see gusts of 70mph plus but I can't see anything too extreme happening inland.

 

By all means though, don't take the warnings any less seriously, stay prepared for the worst.

I have to disagree Suffolk boy!!

as the storm exits into the North sea the bom effect will be causing violent storm force gusts on the Western flank.

This will put the Eastern part of our Region in the firing line..

If you take a line from the Wash to Ipswich any area to the East could be in for gusts up to 100 m/h..

Also this area could be prone to tornado activity..

 

i posted this a few days ago and looking at the projected path i still feel this will happen..

remember when the bom effect takes place in a storm it is able to tap into the jet steam and bring the wind down to very low levels.. 

[Ruislipredbee]

The nae model is one of the least reliable at short timescales! The gfs and ukmo say it's hitting our region gusts to 80mph

[anything-but]

Chief's new briefing received. In a nutshell: NAE modified much towards EC & new GM (broadly similar). So, low centre shifted NW, slowed a tad & deepened. EC currently considered closest match to IR imagery.Key concern remains the overlapping zone walloped by inital SWrly phase & likely again by later W'rly squeeze. Phasing of these uncertain. I can't share the graphics with you from Ops Centre, but for descriptive sake, this zone - albeit roughly & uncertainly delineated - currently encompasses S'rn parts W Country (eg Dorset; S & E Somerset) & adjacent areas. Evaluation of current warnings actively ongoing.

 

 

Well,to coin a phrase.....Bugger! (Xposting as the dedicated thread is going like the MAD thread in the depths of winter!). 

[RUSH]

Keep an eye on wave and weather data for The Channel etc here:

 

http://www.channelcoast.org/data_management/real_time_data/charts/

thanks coast use full.ive put all my big garden toys away now there will no objects in my garden ,to any damage unless a tree comes down ,anyway take care allllllllllll and hopefully there will be no need for rowing boat and sail at the ready.

[suffolkboy_]

I have to disagree Suffolk boy!!

as the storm exits into the North sea the bom effect will be causing violent storm force gusts on the Western flank.

This will put the Eastern part of our Region in the firing line..

If you take a line from the Wash to Ipswich any area to the East could be in for gusts up to 100 m/h..

Also this area could be prone to tornado activity..

 

i posted this a few days ago and looking at the projected path i still feel this will happen..

remember when the bom effect takes place in a storm it is able to tap into the jet steam and bring the wind down to very low levels.. 

 

 

The nae model is one of the least reliable at short timescales! The gfs and ukmo say it's hitting our region gusts to 80mph

 

It will be very interesting to see what happens! I wouldn't like to be in the shoes of the Chief Forecaster at the MetO this weekend. Situations like this can change at the last minute, even if they have been consistent for a number of days. It doesn't take a very big change in track to drastically change the forecast. I feel very sorry for the MetOffice when it does happen. We all know why the MetOffice forecast what they do, and the reasons behind a forecast going wrong. Joe public don't see this and hence the Met get a bashing unless their forecast is spot on (which is near on impossible).

 

I for one I'm not worried, whatever will be will be. Just stay prepared for the worst and think of those more vulnerable than yourselves if the worst should happen!

[Alixzandra]

In reply to Alixzandra (sorry, not sure how to quote posts when using phone), was the incident you're referring to happen in November of last year? As that's exactly what happened just outside the bar I work in.Was pretty intense. Seeing some pretty sturdy and heavy beer 'garden' furniture being flung around was scary. The pods on the Brighton eye were at a completely different angle.It takes a lot to for them to close the pier though. Been there nearly 4 years and experienced some rough conditions in that time!

 

 

No, the incident I referred to was many years ago and I've seen alot of the original facade 'fall off' in that time!  Noble should be doing some major maintenance to shore it up (Probably why no-one wanted to buy it and they took it off the market as well as the economic situation re: tourism)  I was also there when a poor bloke (who was not locked in properly) on the old umbrella ride at it's highest point literally flew into the sea!  Ah, the memories ;-)

 

Back on Topic:  Out putting the garden furniture away, the wind is getting up here and quite humid/mild at 78% 

Edited October 26, 2013 by Alixzandra

[Flaked Queen]

Wind getting up .what time is the storm set to arrive ? Have a feeling it maybe be sooner than tomorrow ??and really hope all stay safe x

[hernebaylooby]

Just spoke to my mum my dad and her are away in Cornwall at the moment and she said about going on a boat trip tomorrow afternoon! Needless to say after a long rant off me I dont think they will be going !

[Keraunic]

Ok folks. Lets all just prepare for the worst anyway and sit and see what happens. That's all we can do really.

But whatever.....hope you and yours stay safe.

[Biensie]

Look and see the ITV2 film for this evening ! GSOH

[Mark Neal.]

Well under 48 hours and no sign of downgrades. Interestingly the focus is on rain by alot of people. Latest GFS output shows 24mm of rain here through Monday morning so along with gusts of 45-60mph. Exposed gusts of 70mph+ for some areas. Hevay rain falling on already wet ground is likely to cause some concern aswell. Not looking nice at all! 

[Summer of 76]

Latest warnings now out and the weather impact matrix has been increased by one to just before the red zone

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=ee&from=rss&sn=4F851A6A-E90A-BC1F-1C94-E9D4A0C41A0C_5_EE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400

Edited October 26, 2013 by chris mantle

[Mark Neal.]

Latest warnings now out and the weather impact matrix has been increased by one to just before the red zone

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=ee&from=rss&sn=4F851A6A-E90A-BC1F-1C94-E9D4A0C41A0C_5_EE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400

 

Reading Ian Fergie post in SW Thread seemed to suggest they are speaking with agencies ahead of the distruption and he expecting some areas to be put under Red before tomorrow.

 

Hammering down here already from a rash of showers developing. 

Edited October 26, 2013 by Mark N

[Snowangel-MK]

Amber Alert of Wind for London & South East England :

 

 

Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead & Wokingham

 

Amber Alert of Wind for East of England :

 

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Norfolk, Peterborough, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk & Thurrock

 

 

 

A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding, while the winds will lead to some very large waves around our coasts. 

 

There remains some uncertainty in the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies.

 

Issued at:

1153 on Sat 26 Oct 2013

 

Valid from:

0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

 

Valid to:

2100 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

 

 

A developing storm is expected to reach the UK later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, probably across England and Wales during Monday, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. There is the potential for gusts of 60-80 mph quite widely and locally over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in the southwesterly winds ahead of the low centre and west to northwesterly winds behind it.

 

20 to 40 mm of rain may fall within 6 to 9 hours, leading to localised flooding, especially where drainage is impeded by wind-blown debris.

 

This warning will be updated Sunday morning.

 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=D474B0A1-4760-C5E9-B041-E9B2C701484F_5_SE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400

[Guest bjaykent]

Trust me. This is going to be nothing like 1987, nowhere near. I can't see a 122mph gust occurring anywhere in the UK this time around!

 

I said it a couple of days ago and still stand by my thoughts now. The storm will be downgraded from what is forecast now. It will take a more southerly track. NAE has already hinted at this this morning (remember this is high resolution). Expect large changes in the forecast in the next 24 hours with the strongest of the winds being south of the UK. The south coast may still see gusts of 70mph plus but I can't see anything too extreme happening inland.

 

By all means though, don't take the warnings any less seriously, stay prepared for the worst.

Hi Suffolk,

 

I know we all have our opinions on the weather and nobody can be certain of the outcome on Monday but to post 'Trust me it will downgrade' based on no more than your gut feeling may not be very sensible, can't see anything from the models or the Met Office to indicate a downgrade at present. As regards being nothing like 1987, well in my opinion that will be the storm of my lifetime and something nowhere near as bad on Monday could well still be very serious and disruptive, especially during daylight hours.

 

I'm sure I would have said just the same sort of things at your age but you do have to be careful not to mislead those looking for guidance on here.

 

Of course if you are right and I do hope you are, you are more than welcome to tell me 'I told you so'.     

[Team Jo]

I think we need to remember that there's a lot of time for things to develop, considering our Low only became a low a few hours ago! It's got a lot of sea to cover and air to interact with before it arrives here. I for one do think the Media getting hold of this has whipped up some fairly insane 'Sharknado' hysteria, but as the week has gone on, there does seem to be some basis for this.

I think that being prepared for power outages etc probably isn't a bad idea, although for the heavy sleepers, you guys might just kip straight through it! What I think is more important is just being aware of the latest forecasts and warnings - even if you don't feel you will be affected in the slightest- look after kids, pets and anyone vulnerable, and maybe for those concerned that Kent will become Kansas, perhaps not believe all the wild speculation.....and take a little with a dash of salt!

[john pike]

hi all

 

just a brief one

 

early fax charts

 

this for monday 00

 

 

low below ireland as was last night

 

monday 12

 

low just to our north

 

difference here is the low is close to us than was last night

 

so watch this between these times and maybe a tad longer now as the winds are still very strong to the north east of the region on the above

 

heres where the ukmo show the low going

 

looks a shade further north but certainly not moving quite as fast

 

jet

to me the jet is still strong but not quite as strong as yesterday

 

so maybe the sting jet risk has slightly dropped?

 

also probably why the low has slowed down as well

 

still some very srtong winds showing but will wait for the update later being saying too much

 

as for whether it is as bad or not

 

preparation is better than cure .

 

be back later

 

regards

 

john

[Tamara]

The amber/yellow warning line rises up from the English Channel to nearly meet me *she says with wishful thinking*

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/data/PWSCache/WarningsImage/Image/NSWWS-8fdae42d-f60d-40b3-9ed4-e610154dcc99/se/2013-10-28

 

On a more serious level looking at the detailed sequence from the latest ECM then the very highest winds of all are taken to the north west of the region which suggests that any further slightest adjustment could actually remove the strongest winds away from the eastern channel. I know..clutching at very big straws and all that.. 

 

 

I think the reality is that we are in for something of a pasting, however one looks at it...

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

a few gusty showers showing up on here

[Snowangel-MK]

Just a quick reminder ....

 

 

 

...it will be easy to forget this in the excitement ahead !

 

 

While we have the relative calm before the storm I will open a new thread now to see us over the rest of the weekend so Please finish off any posts or hold off posting charts etc and I'll link new one shortly....

 

 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78277-south-east-east-anglia-regional-weather-discussion-261013/

 

 

locking this one now !

Edited October 26, 2013 by MKsnowangel