Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd October onwards 2013

[Dan the Man]

Carol Kirkwood this morning already talking about Monday's potential. "Gales, severe gales or possibly something a bit stronger than that".

 

Met Office looking to firm up the forecast in the next few days - track could be up the Bristol Channel towards Humberside, through the English channel or into France.

[Guest William Grimsley]

It was drizzly and mild with a strong wind yesterday, here. High Rainfall Rate Yesterday: 0.0 mm/hr 00:00 High Hourly Rainfall Yesterday: 1.0 mm 00:00 Rainfall Yesterday: 0.6 mm High Temperature Yesterday: 16.1°C 13:41 High Wind Gust Yesterday: 25 mph 08:59 High Wind Speed Yesterday: 15 mph 00:00.

[Coast]

It was drizzly and mild with a strong wind yesterday, here. High Rainfall Rate Yesterday: 0.0 mm/hr 00:00 High Hourly Rainfall Yesterday: 1.0 mm 00:00 Rainfall Yesterday: 0.6 mm High Temperature Yesterday: 16.1°C 13:41 High Wind Gust Yesterday: 25 mph 08:59 High Wind Speed Yesterday: 15 mph 00:00.

 

Nothing convective though?

[poseidon]

Estofex have a level 1 for far SW today. Already strikes showing up out at sea (quite a way out mind).

[ZONE 51]

Have been reading the thread and what great experiences many have had the last several days. I like the new color coded storm and convective forecast charts! Would like to mention the fantastic light show that I experienced on Tuesday eve, I was located in Ashford Surrey and then Stanwell next to Heathrow, first noticed the storm around 19.55 hr was amazing to watch, very much one of the best I'd ever seen before! ones we used to get! but not in October!! multi flickering across the south - southwest horizon, saw some nice lightning, white and blue. The thunderstorm cloud tops were sharply defined black bubbly edges lit up against a clear sky above, fast racing cumulus bubbly and orange ahead of the storm, it was very mild for an Oct eve, as the storm got closer I actually felt cold down drafts this was coming across in gusts, and another cell to the sw horizon developing, this was two light shows frequent every 15 - 20 secs at least and when it did go it went wild with multi flashes, it felt like mid summer in the 90s-then these type would sit there for many hours. When the storm come over the main light display was almost overhead and very bright, lots of people around saw this. Around 20.30-21.00hrs torrents of rain fell with deep thunder and bright lighting, it then moved of n/nw. This storm turned out some very strong wind gusts.

 

Just going back to Sunday morning (the day of the Hayling tornado) had an impressive storm over Stanwell, took an incredible few photos of the cloud structure that was so dark orange, around 08.00 , was some bright flashes not visible though it was not clear air like Tue, had some deep thunder too. It gave some torrential rain and very gusty squalls.

 

Most amazing several days of October thundery weather I can remember! It could be that after quite a thundery summer across many areas (and most noticable over inland SE due to lack of night time thunder storms since 2009) there is now a return to these set-ups and next spring and summer could be thundery if so, I'm talking about late eve / night storms, that we had seen the lack of over recent years!

 

 

Not on home computer are upload pics of Sunday storm at some point. unfortunately for Tue light show I did not have the camera on me, but seen lots of pics from others from the night on the Internet! but I am very happy I got the impressive light show!!

Edited October 24, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Stormyking]

Hi Everyone

 

As you know I reported one of the best thunderstorms i had ever seen the other night, the lightning was was just incredbile, literally like a light switch. Anyway my mate has aloud to share some lightning photos with you lot from what he caught the other day!

 

Enjoy!

 

 

Also heres others from IOW Radio

 

 

 

 

 

 

This one is shared around alot and I just have to share this too, this is my favourite

 

 

 

 

These last lot are all on IOW radio

 

Once i sort out my video of the lightning I caught, ill upload it 

[Andy Bown]

Hi Everyone

 

As you know I reported one of the best thunderstorms i had ever seen the other night, the lightning was was just incredbile, literally like a light switch. Anyway my mate has aloud to share some lightning photos with you lot from what he caught the other day!

 

Enjoy!

 

Once i sort out my video of the lightning I caught, ill upload it 

Can't wait for the video mate, thank you for sharing the pics, the more I see from those storms the more I wish the system had been 25 miles further W/NW as Salisbury was affected by lightning too.

[Summer Sun]

Synopsis

 

Beneath a very sharp/elongated longwave trough, a new surface low will track northwards across Ireland, while surface fronts migrate northeastwards across most parts of the British Isles. In the post-frontal environment, cooling mid-levels over warm SSTs (and LSTs) will result in some convection chances.

 

Discussion

 

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop offshore to the south of Ireland around 05z-07z as a shortwave trough destabilises an environment with 600-800 J/kg CAPE. This shortwave/cluster will then expand and drift northeastwards through the remainder of the forecast period, reaching SW Scotland/Cumbria towards mid-afternoon. In the wake of this shortwave, further showers and a few thunderstorms will develop elsewhere across the Irish Sea, Wales and SW England. Depth of instability is questionable, and hence lightning coverage remains uncertain/borderline SLGT, but given ELTs down to -40C in a strongly sheared environment (30-40kts DLS) some sporadic lightning is expected from any well-organised cells. In fact, despite the cold front/occlusion passing through, surface dewpoints will still be around 13C leading to low LCLs, and given 25-35kts LLS with some slight backing of surface winds, there is scope for an isolated tornado. The strongest cells may occasionally exhibit supercell-like characteristics, capable of producing some small hail and gusty winds.

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/290

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #035ISSUED: 1300UTC THURSDAY 24TH OCTOBER 2013

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS - SOUTHWEST & SOUTHERN ENGLAND, WALES, MIDLANDSBRIEF, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES - SOUTHWEST & SOUTHERN ENGLAND, WALES, MIDLANDS

IN EFFECT FROM 0200UTC UNTIL 0900UTC FRIDAY 25TH OCTOBER 2013

JET DRIVEN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE WITH POST-FRONTAL INSTABILITY, WITH FAVOURABLE SHEAR FOR WELL ORGANISED CONVECTION

 

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS MODERATE MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK DURING THE MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE SW WILL PUSH AN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE UP THROUGH THE UK, DELIVERING SOME 20-30MM OF RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT TIME. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN POST-FRONTAL SHORTWAVING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WALES LATER IN THE MORNING, SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING CONVECTION COULD OCCUR. INSTABILITY IS ONLY SLIGHT, BUT THESE AREAS ARE HIGHLY SHEARED BOTH VERTICALLY AND DIRECTIONALLY, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR WELL ORGANISED CELLS TO OCCUR. MOST LIKELY ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT AND ADVECTED ONSHORE INTO COASTAL AREAS, THOUGH THERE IS SCOPE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THEREAFTER INLAND. THE ONCOMING JET CONVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD STIFLE FURTHER CONVECTION AFTER THE WATCH PERIOD, SO THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

 

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

[Jane Louise]

Hi Everyone

 

As you know I reported one of the best thunderstorms i had ever seen the other night, the lightning was was just incredbile, literally like a light switch. Anyway my mate has aloud to share some lightning photos with you lot from what he caught the other day!

 

Enjoy!

 

 

Also heres others from IOW Radio

 

 

 

 

 

 

This one is shared around alot and I just have to share this too, this is my favourite

 

 

 

 

These last lot are all on IOW radio

 

Once i sort out my video of the lightning I caught, ill upload it 

Wow they are amazing. Thank you very much for sharing them with us.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Jane Louise

[Jane Louise]

Synopsis

 

Beneath a very sharp/elongated longwave trough, a new surface low will track northwards across Ireland, while surface fronts migrate northeastwards across most parts of the British Isles. In the post-frontal environment, cooling mid-levels over warm SSTs (and LSTs) will result in some convection chances.

 

Discussion

 

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop offshore to the south of Ireland around 05z-07z as a shortwave trough destabilises an environment with 600-800 J/kg CAPE. This shortwave/cluster will then expand and drift northeastwards through the remainder of the forecast period, reaching SW Scotland/Cumbria towards mid-afternoon. In the wake of this shortwave, further showers and a few thunderstorms will develop elsewhere across the Irish Sea, Wales and SW England. Depth of instability is questionable, and hence lightning coverage remains uncertain/borderline SLGT, but given ELTs down to -40C in a strongly sheared environment (30-40kts DLS) some sporadic lightning is expected from any well-organised cells. In fact, despite the cold front/occlusion passing through, surface dewpoints will still be around 13C leading to low LCLs, and given 25-35kts LLS with some slight backing of surface winds, there is scope for an isolated tornado. The strongest cells may occasionally exhibit supercell-like characteristics, capable of producing some small hail and gusty winds.

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/290

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #035ISSUED: 1300UTC THURSDAY 24TH OCTOBER 2013

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS - SOUTHWEST & SOUTHERN ENGLAND, WALES, MIDLANDSBRIEF, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES - SOUTHWEST & SOUTHERN ENGLAND, WALES, MIDLANDS

IN EFFECT FROM 0200UTC UNTIL 0900UTC FRIDAY 25TH OCTOBER 2013

JET DRIVEN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE WITH POST-FRONTAL INSTABILITY, WITH FAVOURABLE SHEAR FOR WELL ORGANISED CONVECTION

 

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS MODERATE MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK DURING THE MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE SW WILL PUSH AN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE UP THROUGH THE UK, DELIVERING SOME 20-30MM OF RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT TIME. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN POST-FRONTAL SHORTWAVING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WALES LATER IN THE MORNING, SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING CONVECTION COULD OCCUR. INSTABILITY IS ONLY SLIGHT, BUT THESE AREAS ARE HIGHLY SHEARED BOTH VERTICALLY AND DIRECTIONALLY, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR WELL ORGANISED CELLS TO OCCUR. MOST LIKELY ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT AND ADVECTED ONSHORE INTO COASTAL AREAS, THOUGH THERE IS SCOPE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THEREAFTER INLAND. THE ONCOMING JET CONVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD STIFLE FURTHER CONVECTION AFTER THE WATCH PERIOD, SO THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

 

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

The main thing is to keep ourselves and others safe  no matter how much  we are  fascinated with mother natures wild weather events.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Jane Louise

[Stormyking]

Might need help on how to upload videos, as i have no idea 

Edited October 24, 2013 by Stormyking

[Panayiotis]

Showers now in the SW hopefully convection later on could intensify them. 

PS Clouds to my S undergoing some convection with the sun out, I need to keep my eyes on them!

[Supacell]

Thunderstorm just broke out on the west coast of mid wales and looks to be heading north east.

[paul m]

The main thing is to keep ourselves and others safe  no matter how much  we are  fascinated with mother natures wild weather events.

So do you think it would be ok to fly my 6ft metallic kite with the nylon string replaced with wire

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Wow, that looks some storm over Wales!! 

[Jane Louise]

So do you think it would be ok to fly my 6ft metallic kite with the nylon string replaced with wire

You're welcome to try it lol but please do let me know the outcome.

[Jane Louise]

Hope the storm heads this way! but it probably wont lol. I wonder if there will be any storms with this low system passing over on sunday night.

[rosgar]

Fast moving too...next stop? Oswestry/Wrexham parts of The Wirral.. Very tidy it looks too!

Can confirm, thunder in Chirk, main storm looks slightly West of here.

[Supacell]

That storm from Wales will likely run across Cheshire and into Manchester. Nothing near here unfortunately.

[Mokidugway]

Thunder and lightning , torrential rain,clear blue sky one hour ago!

[Summer Sun]

Might need help on how to upload videos, as i have no idea 

 

If you have a youtube link just put that in and it will auto add

[Andy Bown]

Hope the storm heads this way! but it probably wont lol. I wonder if there will be any storms with this low system passing over on sunday night.

More likely some fast moving downpours (possibly thundery) during Sunday daytime and after the main rain clears Monday morning, the worst rain will probably be dynamic rather than convective as last night's was.

[Carl46Wrexham]

At long last.....jack all year....now we get one

[Chris.R]

Rain has started here and a few distant rumbles of thunder to the south.

[Jane Louise]

At long last.....jack all year....now we get one

Excellent. Finally Lol send it my way Carl lol