Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd October onwards 2013

[SupaSnowy]

Just a few shots I took from Fareham fop rom my flat window, never done night photography so this is the first chance I had. Normally do aircraft/airshows.

[Southern Storm]

Is it me or are their hook like features developing in some of these bands coming in of the channel? 

 

it is late so could be losing it

[Mark -W-s-M]

doubt we'll see any more thundery activity tonight netweather lightning detector is only showing 2 strikes but i think the most i'll see here in weston super mare is heavy rain .

[Bobby]

Heavy rain here, looks there could be quite a bit to come tonight, doesn't seem be anything electrical at the moment but something may fire up later. Rain a concern though as things are waterlogged with some minor flooding already after 95mm of rain since yesterday morning.

[Panayiotis]

Thanks for the insight Ian. 

Edited October 22, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Supacell]

Just woke up and quite surprised on checking to see no lightning anywhere across the uk.

[Mapantz]

Extremely strong gusts of wind here, the recent rain was pants, nothing compared to earlier (6pm ish) - Electrical activity has vanished, don't expect alot, just strong winds and fast moving showers.  I think things changed pretty fast, the initial showers early evening were more potent than what was forecasted for tonight.

Edited October 23, 2013 by Mapantz

[A.J]

interesting radar signature to the cell just to  the north/north east of Poole, ppn core on the SW flank of the cell, looks quite well organised with hook echo on east/south east flank

[A.J]

another interesting radar signature, from the cell near lymington, Hants, tracking towards Hythe & eastern fringes of southampton....I've looked at the last 4 radar loops from 0050 to 0115, and again looks quite well organized with a strong ppn core on the southern flank with a hook echo on the south eastern flank indicitive of a possible mesocyclone....one to keep an eye on for those in the area

Edited October 23, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[Supercell 89]

That cell that's just gone over Portsmouth looks like it had some rotation on it briefly

[Panayiotis]

I think tonight's interest will lie within this line of showers heading in a NNE direction, it does look to be intensifying but the next loop on the radar should hopefully confirm this.

Edited October 23, 2013 by Panayiotis

[BlueHedgehog074]

I think tonight's interest will lie within this line of showers heading in a NNE direction, it does look to be intensifying but the next loop on the radar should hopefully confirm this.

Looks like you've got it spot on. Really pounding down with rain outside the window. Thunder and lightning not included (at the moment), but still a pretty decent large shower, nonetheless.

[staplehurst]

Just woke up and quite surprised on checking to see no lightning anywhere across the uk.

 

ATD data went down about 8pm ha! Typical...

[The PIT]

A boring quiet night as expected. Well over hyped.

[Coast]

Looks like this one is heading out East now:

 

 

 

SYNOPSIS

 

General macrosynoptic pattern will remain more or less the same as during the previous days - a broad southwesterly flow is forecast over much of Western and Central Europe situated between deep trough over the Atlantic and ridge over Eastern Europe. This trough will translate towards northeast, slightly de-amplifying the ridge but no major reconfiguration is expected. Unseasonably warm airmass has spread all the way up to Southern Scandinavia, while a weak CAA is expected behind the insignificant cold front that will move from France towards Germany. Another significant trough will approach the Iberian penninsula towards the Thursday morning hours.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

What thunderstorms? Luckily nothing reached Devon at all last night. So, I didn't miss anything. What a hyped up situation. Many of us are disappointed. I knew this would happen. Oh well, maybe another time.

 

Sorry, a bit of a rant there. But, I was dissapointed not to even get a heavy shower.

[Coast]

UKASF for today:

 

 

 

Synopsis

 

Longwave trough continues to pivot northeastwards across Britain, introducing cooler mid-levels, while a couple of shortwave troughs provide the necessary lift to destabilise the warm, surface airmass present. Net result is some deep convection during the first half of this forecast period, replaced by slight ridging and gradual decay from the southwest during tomorrow.

 

Discussion

 

Bands of showers/embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing through the remainder of tonight and first part of tomorrow morning, particularly focussed along northeastward-moving shortwave troughs with broken segments. Given strong DLS, some bowing segments are likely with strong, gusty winds and occasional lightning, particular near coasts while weakening further inland. Some local flooding will occur from slow-moving prolonged torrential dowpours.

 

Given such DLS (40kts with >30kts LLS), coupled with surface veering and low LCLs, there continues to be a risk of tornadic development (albeit very low point probability) from any well-organised cells, particularly close to the south coast where instability will be greatest, running eastwards with time between 00z-11z. Favourable wind profiles also suggest some cells may exhibit supercell-like characteristics, with hail up to 1.5cm in diameter. Give the potential for severe convective weather, we have issued a borderline SVR threat level to highlight those areas at greatest risk.

 

Showers will weaken and clear northeastwards during Wednesday as the main parent low drifts away, and is replaced by gradually ridging from the southwest.

 

[staplehurst]

What thunderstorms? Luckily nothing reached Devon at all last night. So, I didn't miss anything. What a hyped up situation. Many of us are disappointed. I knew this would happen. Oh well, maybe another time.

 

Sorry, a bit of a rant there. But, I was dissapointed not to even get a heavy shower.

 

Depends how you interpret the forecasts - I don't personally feel it was 'hyped up', there were some very impressive storms in Central Southern areas and the south Midlands with some really nice bowing features on radar, with flooding in some parts of Hampshire and the Isle of Wight (30-40mm in just a few hours) and a potential waterspout offshore of Hayling Island around 8.55pm. In that sense, some thunderstorms were forecast with the potential for a tornado, and that seems to have been the case thus far. Awaiting any further reports of damage etc...

[Supacell]

ATD data went down about 8pm ha! Typical...

So there may have been storms during the night then? I was thinking it had all gone quiet after yesterday evenings storms in the Central South.Would i be right in thinking Friday offers more opportunity, albeit less intense than the weekend and yesterday?

[Coast]

Would i be right in thinking Friday offers more opportunity, albeit less intense than the weekend and yesterday?

 

For rain - probably about the same, as for anything convective, GFS says it grazes the SW and Wales currently:

 

[Mapantz]

I don't think it was hyped up either, a few forecasts did go awry though. The BBC national forecast did make a point of the second batch being severe through the early hours but i wasn't, it was the first set of showers/storms that were the pick of the day.  

[Nick F]

Not sure if this has been posted already, but interesting CCTV footage of the supposed tornado ripping through the Menegham Rythe Sailing Club on Hayling Island, just when there's the transition from waterspout to tornado:

 

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/hayling-tornado-images-of-twister-caught-on-cctv-1-5608549

[kells]

Taken from Portsmouth lastnight Im gutted i missed it as the picture is an exact replica of a dream i had when i was 10 of twisters over the solent and lastnight it happened. We had a small tornado in newport on the isle of wight last week aswell which i also missed

[Mapantz]

I find that picture mighty suspicious! If it is genuine, then i apologise, it is a fantastic photo. Maybe some of the other folk on here can find out? I have no means of finding out on a webkit.  

[Methuselah]

Taken from Portsmouth lastnight Im gutted i missed it as the picture is an exact replica of a dream i had when i was 10 of twisters over the solent and lastnight it happened. We had a small tornado in newport on the isle of wight last week aswell which i also missed

It's a still from Day after Tomorrow!