November forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. competition

[Isolated Frost]

If the minima for the 10th has already passed, we're 1.25c below the average to the 10th here at Durham.

To be higher than the 1981-2010 average of 6.4c, the last 20 days must average higher than 7.0c.

Higher than the 1981-2010 minima average of 3.4c, the last 20 days must average higher than 4.4c.

Higher than the 1981-2010 maxima average of 9.4c, the last 20 days must average higher than 9.6c.

A pretty cool first third, lots of notably cool minima, something that this year has lacked (January and March's cold mainly due to impressive -ve maxima).

[March Blizzard]

If the minima for the 10th has already passed, we're 1.25c below the average to the 10th here at Durham.To be higher than the 1981-2010 average of 6.4c, the last 20 days must average higher than 7.0c.Higher than the 1981-2010 minima average of 3.4c, the last 20 days must average higher than 4.4c.Higher than the 1981-2010 maxima average of 9.4c, the last 20 days must average higher than 9.6c.A pretty cool first third, lots of notably cool minima, something that this year has lacked (January and March's cold mainly due to impressive -ve maxima).

I'm a bit surprised the CET is currently as warm as it is. Even places like Manchester and Sheffield have been noticeably cooler, never mind further north. Has the CET zone really been that bit milder? Or should we perhaps expect a hefty end of month downgrade?

[SomeLikeItHot]

7.7 to the 10th   -0.3 anomaly (61-90) -0.9 anomaly (81-10)Min today of 2.3 and max likely around 12.5 should see a slight fall tomorrow or remain the same. 

Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0Z ensemble mean after that give 

11th 7.6 (7.4)12th 7.8  (9.5)13th 7.7  (6.25)14th 7.7  (8.0)15th 7.6  (6.7)16th 7.5  (6.0)17th 7.5  (6.25) +0.2 (61-90) -0.5  (81-10)18th 7.4  (6.0)19th 7.2  (4.5)20th 7.1  (4.25)    -0.1 (61-90) -0.7 (81-10)…25th 6.4 -0.5 (61-90)    -1.0 (81-10)26th 6.4    -0.5 (61-90)    -1.0 (81-10)

 

Certainly a switching colder in the weekends model output now trending to below average from at or slightly above. Still plenty of time for changes to that though before the end of month.

 

Edit: Corrected the Date at top per March Blizzards post below!

Edit2: Also corrected the last date to the 26th (was 27th).

Edited November 11, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[SomeLikeItHot]

I'm a bit surprised the CET is currently as warm as it is. Even places like Manchester and Sheffield have been noticeably cooler, never mind further north. Has the CET zone really been that bit milder? Or should we perhaps expect a hefty end of month downgrade?

 

Remmber 2/3rds of the CET weighting come from well south of that, and there has been a bit of a north south split in temps generally. Also the SW corner seems to have had fairly mild minima recently.

[March Blizzard]

Remmber 2/3rds of the CET weighting come from well south of that, and there has been a bit of a north south split in temps generally. Also the SW corner seems to have had fairly mild minima recently.

 

Yeah, I thought it might be more down to milder minima than warmer maxes, which seem to have been fairly similar across the country. It has generally been clearer at night from here northwards.

 

Oh, btw, I'm sure it's 7.7C to the 10th, not 9th!  

[SomeLikeItHot]

Yeah, I thought it might be more down to milder minima than warmer maxes, which seem to have been fairly similar across the country. It has generally been clearer at night from here northwards.

 

Oh, btw, I'm sure it's 7.7C to the 10th, not 9th!  

Thanks for the correction.

 

Incidentally the anomaly on Max and min is the same at the moment after the last 3 colder minimums, but I believe a couple of days ago it was lower on the max than mins.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Just looking at the GFS 6z Ensembles, and if I used the 6Z ensemble mean rather than the 0z ensemble mean, we would be at 6.1 by the 26th. So it wasn't just the op that turned colder.

[Scorcher]

Hi all, just wanted to report back on the email enquiry I sent to the Met Office about the month-end downward corrections- this has been really cleared up by the reply I received: 

 

Dear Liam,

 

Thank you for your email.

 

The initial daily values for CET (and hence the 'month-so-far' average figures) are from a different set of stations, which are roughly representative of the Central England area but specifically chosen because they report daily in 'real time' thus allowing each day's CET value to be estimated promptly.

 

The final 'official' CET values are calculated from Stonyhurst, Pershore College and Rothamsted, but these stations are not quite as reliable in their real-time reporting and we can only dependably calculate the CET values once the month is complete.

 

There is inevitably going to be a small difference between values calculated from different sets of stations, however carefully we choose our 'initial estimate' stations.  This is the reason why the month-end adjustments occur, and it just happens that usually the official values are slightly lower than the initial estimates.

 

I hope this helps. You may also find it helpful to read the references given on the HadCET download pages (blue box in the right-hand corner): http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

 

Kind regards,

 

Trish

[SomeLikeItHot]

Ok that make sense as why there is almost always a downward correction if the stations are located in slightly cooler locations. So not actually methodological correction.

[damianslaw]

There has been a notable difference both in terms of maximum and minimum temperatures between the northern half of the country and the southern half - I usuall take the dividing line to be roughly along the Trent Valley to the Wash and along the Shropshire/Cheshire border accounting for the normally colder NE and warmer SW. As two of the stations are comfortably to the south of this line and the only northern station at Stonyhurst in the more milder west, the CET zone is certainly skewed to the milder south and west bias at present.

 

Indeed drawing a line from roughly Morecambe Bay to the Humber and temperatures across the far north of england have been below the early November mean - appreciably so.

 

I'd be interested to see what the Scottish mean value is at present - I suspect quite a bit below the early November average, looking at the outlook, quite a cold November for Scotland could be on the cards.

[Summer Sun]

7.7c to the 11th

 

0.2c below average

[SomeLikeItHot]

7.7 to the 11 th   -0.2 anomaly (61-90)    -0.8 anomaly (81-10)Min today of 7.6 and max likely around 11.5 should see a rise to 7.9.Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0Z ensemble mean after that gives12th 7.9   (9.6)13th 7.7   (6.3)14th 7.7   (7.6)15th 7.6 (6.25)16th 7.6   (6.75)17th 7.5   (6.00)18th 7.3   (5.0)19th 7.2   (4.0)20th 6.9 (2.0) -0.2 (61-90)   -0.9 (81-10)21st 6.7  (3.5)

...25th 6.3   -0.6 (61-90)   -1.1 (81-10)

...27th 6.1   -0.7 (61-90)  -1.2 (81-10)

 

Edit: Oops correction in the figure for the 27th.

 

Drifting colder from Yesterday as Ensembles firm on a dip around the 19th-25th. 

Edited November 12, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[SomeLikeItHot]

7.8 to the 12 th -0.0 anomaly (61-90) -0.7 anomaly (81-10) 

Min today of 1.5 and max likely around 9.5 should see a fall to 7.7. 

Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0Z ensemble mean after that give: 

13th   7.7   (5.5)14th 7.7   (7.5)15th   7.6   (6.0)16th   7.5   (6.9)17th   7.5   (8.0)18th 7.5   (6.0)19th 7.2   (3.0)20th 6.9 (1.25) -0.2 (61-90)  -0.9 (81-10)…25th 6.1  -0.8 (61-90)  -1.3 (81-10)28th 5.8   -0.9 (61-90)   -1.4 (81-10)

 

Another drop to colder ensembles today.

Edited November 13, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[summer blizzard]

My 8.1C is certainly looking poor.

[Summer Sun]

My 8.1C is certainly looking poor.

 

I went for 7.8c which is where the CET is at for yesterday

 

Needs a quick turn around from the models to make it close to that it could happen all eyes on where the high next week will places its self

Edited November 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

Scotland could end up with a sub 3c CET this month....

 

S

[SomeLikeItHot]

Out of the months I have been monitoring this, the Ensemble mean forecast I calculate has been within 0.5 of the final number I think on all but 1 occasion, at the time the ensembles stretch to the end of month (ie the 15th or 16th). The exception being September where  it flipped from forecasting something like 12.9 on the 16th, which then rose to around 13.6-13.8 by the 19th (final offical number was 13.7).

 

Anyway a few days we should have a reasonable picture of where it will end up but its looking like the following members are best placed.

 

6.3 ... MARK N, MARCH BLIZZARD

6.2 ...

6.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of all years 1659-2012 ----

6.0 ... SIMSHADY, SNOWM4N

 

5.9 ... SCEPTICAL INQUIRER, BOBD29 ... ... ---- mean of 1801-1900 ----

5.8 ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1701-1800 ----

5.7 ... SNOWSTORM1

5.6 ...

5.5 ... CONGLETON HEAT ... ... ---- mean of 1659-1700 ----

Edited November 13, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Summer Sun]

7.7 to the 13th

 

Bang on the 1961 to 1990 average

Edited November 14, 2013 by Summer Sun

[SomeLikeItHot]

7.7 to the 13th

 

Bang on the 1961 to 1990 average

-0.0 anomaly (61-90) -0.7 anomaly (81-10)Min today of 4.3 and max likely around 9.5 should see a fall to 7.6.Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0Z ensemble mean after that give14th  7.6  (6.9)15th  7.5  (6.3)16th  7.6  (7.8 )17th  7.6  (7.9)18th  7.5  (7.0)19th  7.3  (2.0)20th  6.9  (1.0) -0.2 (61-90) -0.8 (81-10)21st  6.7  (1.3)22nd 6.5  (2.5)23rd  6.3  (3.3)24th  6.2  (3.0)25th  6.1  (2.5) -0.8 (61-90) -1.3 (81-10)…29th 5.7   -0.9 (61-90) -1.5 (81-10)

 

Ensembles Edged slightly cooler again, but you can't really see it as the short term (days 1-4) went slightly warmer. Still trending for something signficantly below average.

[mikeocarroll]

My 8.1C is certainly looking poor.

 

Starting to wish I had stuck with 4.8 instead of bottling it and going closer to average....

[Don]

What about my 9.5C?!

[Weather-history]

I wonder how much influence the month when the guess is made has on the guess? Does a very mild month sway the majority of the guesses towards the mild side ie did the very mild October make people tend towards a mild November?

Edited November 14, 2013 by Weather-history

[Relativistic]

I wonder how much influence the month when the guess is made has on the guess? Does a very mild month sway the majority of the guesses towards the mild side ie did the very mild October make people tend towards a mild November?

I've certainly noticed this. The only month that I can think of where this wasn't the case was July (most went high and were close) and March (most went high and were nowhere near).

[Duncan McAlister]

What were most of you thinking? Even the beginning of the month didn't look that mild as I posted.

[March Blizzard]

What were most of you thinking? Even the beginning of the month didn't look that mild as I posted.

I thought something similar, if you're going to go mild for November you better be sure a very mild start is on the cards; It's a month that can rapidly cool (as we're expecting).I expected a cool down so went for 6.3C. Even that is now looking a bit too toasty!