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November forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. competition

Roger J Smith

By Roger J Smith
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)

November can also be a terrific month of extremes, the Autumn of 2005 was odds on to be the warmest on record as we went into November and saw the mildest first 12 days on record, the second half was the 3rd coldest since 1950 with a cet of 1.6C beaten only by 1952 and 1993.

 

November can also be a terrific month of extremes, the Autumn of 2005 was odds on to be the warmest on record as we went into November and saw the mildest first 12 days on record, the second half was the 3rd coldest since 1950 with a cet of 1.6C beaten only by 1952 and 1993.

Autumn 2005 was odd, we seemed to go straight from Summer into Winter.  I remember the first half of November was so mild I was wearing T-shirts without a coat and within a week or so it turned very cold with snow as far as Cornwall!  Not that I saw any mind!  Autumn 2005 was briefly the record holder for the warmest but then came along Autumn 2006.....

Edited by Don
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

With a min today of 6.3C and maxima around around 12.5C, we should see a drop to something around 9.9C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS op run has the CET near

9.4C to the 3rd (8.4)

8.6C to the 4th (6.2)

8.4C to the 5th (7.8]

8.6C to the 6th (9.1)

8.5C to the 7th (8.2)

8.5C to the 8th (8.7)

8.5C to the 9th (7.9)

 

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

10.0C to the 2nd

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

 

Yesterday was 9.7C. Minimum today is 6.2C while maxima look like reaching close to 11C, so a drop to 9.5C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

8.5C to the 4th (5.4)

8.3C to the 5th(7.7)

8.4C to the 6th (8.5)

8.4C to the 7th (8.7)

8.4C to the 8th (8.4)

8.3C to the 9th (7.3)

8.0C to the 10th (5.4)

 

 

A start quite close to the 61-90 average, above the 1772-2012 average and below the 81-10 average.

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted (edited)

9.4c to the 3rd 0.7c above average

Min today of 2.2 and a Max of around 9.5 forecast which should give a big drop tomorrow.Met forecast for 5 days and GFS 0z ensemble mean after that gives:4th 8.5 (5.9) anomaly = +0.1 (61-90) -0.5 (81-10)5th 8.3 (7.25)6th 8.2 (8.0)7th 8.2 (8.2)8th 8.2 (9.0) anomaly = +0.2 (61-90) -0.5 (81-10)9th 8.1 (7.5)10th 8.1 (7.5)...15th 7.8 anomaly = +0.3 (61-90) -0.4 (81-10)...19th 7.5 anomaly = +0.3 (61-90) -0.4 (81-10)I decided to include the anomaly relative to both 61-90 (which is what the HADCET numbers are quoted against) and also the 81-10 running average for he month for aditional reference.So far compared with last month we are looking at something much closer to average. Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

8.6 to the 4th +0.1 anomaly (61-90) : -0.4 (81-10)

Min today of 3.2 and likely max 11 should see another fall tomorrow to 8.3

Met forecasts for 5 days and the GFS 0z Ensemble mean gives

5th 8.3 (7.1) = average 61-90, -0.6 81-10

6th 8.2 (8.1)

7th 8.3 (8.6)

8th 8.3 (8.1)

9th 8.1 (7.0) = +0.2 (61-90), -0.5 (81-10)

10th 8.1 (7.5)

...

15th 7.8 = +0.3 (61-90), -0.4 (81-10)

...

20th 7.3 = +0.2 (61-90), -0.5 (81-10)

So tracking slightly above the 61-90 average, and about 0.5 below 81-10 average.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Maxima looked like they were around 11C, as predicted above so 8.3C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

 

8.5C to the 6th (9.6)

8.5C to the 7th (8.4)

8.5C to the 8th (8.3)

8.2C to the 9th (6.2)

8.1C to the 10th (7.5)

8.6C to the 11th (13.3)

8.7C to the 12th (9.7)

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

8.6C to the 11th (13.3)

I think that would be a daily record if that occurred, previous record is 13.0.
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

I think that would be a daily record if that occurred, previous record is 13.0.

 

Yep. That 13.0C was set in 2005. I'm sure it will be lowered closer to the time, as many days were in October.

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted (edited)

8.6 to the 5th - No change from yesterday despite a daily figure of 6.9 for the 5th. 

It seems that they have revised the daily CETs for the first 3 days of the month up.Previously they were1st 10.3 (As can be seen here)2nd 9.7  (and here)3rd 8.24th 6.05th 6.9 

Now they are:

1st 10.72nd 10.53rd 8.64th 6.05th 6.9

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

8.6 to the 5th - No change from yesterday despite a daily figure of 6.9 for the 5th.

 

It seems that they have revised the daily CETs for the first 3 days of the month up.

Previously they were

1st 10.3 (As can be seen here)

2nd 9.7  (and here)

3rd 8.2

4th 6.0

5th 6.9

 

Now they are:

1st 10.7

2nd 10.5

3rd 8.6

4th 6.0

5th 6.9

 

Here's a screen shot of the page before they changed it

Posted Image

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Lettucing Gutted Community Regular

Lettucing Gutted

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
Posted

Just think if they had left it until the end of the month for those upward revisions we would have had a rare large upward connection after the end.

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Well if it goes according to plan then we should expect to see some ridiculously 'very mild' temps latter 2/3rds of the month....with GFS 00z looking yuck...but on the money.  I've wished Nov away already...

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted (edited)

They may still be corrected further at the end of the month.

Or indeed today!

 

 

They have just changed them back to what they were. Very strange.

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

So 8.4 to the 6th +0.3 anomaly (61-90)  or -0.3 anomaly (81-10)

 

That's  after the first 3 days have been shifted back down again. That would have made yesterday 8.3.

 

Min today was 5.3 and max around 11.0 tomorrow should also be 8.4.

 

Met forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0z ensemble mean gives.

 

7th 8.4 (8.2)

8th 8.3 (7.75)

9th 8.1 (6.2)

10th 7.9 (6.5) 0 anomaly (61-90) - 0.7 anomaly (81-10) 

11th 8.1 (10.25)

12th 8.2 (9.0)

13th 8.1 (6.5)

14th 8.0 (7.0)

15th 8.0 (8.0)   +0.5 anomaly (61-90)  -0.21 (81-10)

...

20th 7.9   +0.7 anomaly (61-90) +0.1 (81-10)

...

22nd 7.7 +0.7 anomaly (61-90) +0.1 (81-10)

 

So currently trending near the 81-10 average.

 

Notablely the ECM ensemble average seems to be going much cooler than GFS at the end of the run but that's still 10+ days out.

 

 

Posted Image

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted (edited)

8.4 to the 7th.  +0.3 anomaly (61-90) -0.3 anomaly (81-10)

 

Min today of 4.5 and max forecast around 9.5, should see a drop tomorrow.  

 

Met Office forecasts for 5 day and GFS 0z ensemble mean after that gives. 

 

8th   8.2  (7.0)

9th   8.0  (6.0)

10th 7.8  (6.2)   -0.1 anomaly (61-90)   -0.8 anomaly (81-10)

11th 8.0  (9.75)

12th 8.0  (8.7)

13th 7.9  (6.0)

14th 7.8  (7.5)

15th 7.8  (6.5)   +0.3 anomaly (61-90) -0.4 anomaly (81-10)

..

20th 7.4   +0.3 anomaly (61-90) -0.3 anomaly (81-10) 

...

23rd 7.1   +0.2 anomaly (61-90)  - 0.4 anomaly (81-10)

 

So continuing to track between the 61-90 and 81-10 averages. A long way to go yet but its worth noting that the final 61-90 average is 6.6 while the final 81-10 average is 7.1.

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

8.1c to the 8th 0.1c above average

 

8.2C to the 8th?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

Min today of 2.0C, while maxima look like reaching over 7C, so a drop to 7.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

7.6C to the 10th (5.4)

7.7C to the 11th (9.3)

7.9C to the 12th (9.6)

7.8C to the 13th (7.4)

7.9C to the 14th (8.1)

7.7C to the 15th (5.0)

7.5C to the 16th (4.2)

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

8.2C to the 8th?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

Min today of 2.0C, while maxima look like reaching over 7C, so a drop to 7.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

7.6C to the 10th (5.4)

7.7C to the 11th (9.3)

7.9C to the 12th (9.6)

7.8C to the 13th (7.4)

7.9C to the 14th (8.1)

7.7C to the 15th (5.0)

7.5C to the 16th (4.2)

 

I could have sworn it had 8.1c

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield at 6.6C a huge difference.  I suspect a large adjustment at the end of the month.

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