November forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. competition

[DAVID SNOW]

8.2 please.

[Kentish Man]

7.6C please

[geoffw]

8 please

[cheese]

Why exactly is Summer Sun liking al the mild guesses?

[Roger J Smith]

First item, change based on SST anomaly persistence, keeping Craig honest again with a 9.7 call.

 

Second item, I have the table ready to post, will post it shortly because I don't want to lose it while I'm out this afternoon here, then I will edit the later entries in. So if you're wondering about open slots, I see 8.6, 9.1 and 9.2 unclaimed (as well as all above that except now 9.7 and 10.5), and near the bottom of the guesses, 6.2 is open.

 

That table will appear shortly over in the contest thread.

[Polar Maritime]

7.1c Ta.

[Froze were the Days]

Largely Mild, maybe a cooler less zonal period - 9.2c please

[Don]

Ok, I'll go for 9.5C please.  I hope this will look rather silly come the end of November!

Edited October 31, 2013 by Don

[Don]

First item, change based on SST anomaly persistence, keeping Craig honest again with a 9.7 call.

 

 

Hi Roger.  I know this isn't really the right thread, but does this have any bearing on you Winter thoughts?  Perhaps you could respond in the seasonal thread?  Cheers

[Bobby]

8.5c for me.

[J10]

Mild to Very Mild

 

8.1c

[davehsug]

8.2c please

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

7.7C

[seabreeze86]

6.7 for me, cold in the final third saves us from another above average month

[TonyH]

7.5c please

[feb1991blizzard]

8c please.

 

 

[March Blizzard]

A lot of very mild guesses here, some near record breaking. I'm not convinced, if I remember rightly BFTV stated that the correlation between October and November temperatures is very weak. Historically, a warm October doesn't necessarily make a mild November.

Of course, there's always the chance I'm talking twaddle...

[A Winter's Tale]

I'll go for 7.7C please

[Great Plum]

7.5c please

[AderynCoch]

8.3

[Isolated Frost]

I'm still expecting a very cool-cold second half of November, so I'm happy with my guess.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Mild start , cold end. 7.1

[Duncan McAlister]

A lot of very mild guesses here, some near record breaking. I'm not convinced, if I remember rightly BFTV stated that the correlation between October and November temperatures is very weak. Historically, a warm October doesn't necessarily make a mild November.Of course, there's always the chance I'm talking twaddle...

 

I'm surprised too, for a large part of the first 10 days the CET zone is likely to be in the 'green' area ie sub-0C 850s. This doesn't guarantee cold weather at this time of year but it's unlikely to bring particularly mild conditions either. And obviously it's a cooling month...

Edited November 1, 2013 by Duncan McAlister

[summer blizzard]

I'm surprised too, for a large part of the first 10 days the CET zone is likely to be in the 'green' area ie sub-0C 850s. This doesn't guarantee cold weather at this time of year but it's unlikely to bring particularly mild conditions either. And obviously it's a cooling month...

November can also be a terrific month of extremes, the Autumn of 2005 was odds on to be the warmest on record as we went into November and saw the mildest first 12 days on record, the second half was the 3rd coldest since 1950 with a cet of 1.6C beaten only by 1952 and 1993.

[Summer Sun]

10.3c to the 1st

 

1.2c above average