Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[Captain Shortwave]

Well I thought this mornings output was garbage.........

I cannot express my feelings towards the latest ECM, darn swear filter 

 

Probably the Americans have hacked it and shoved the GFS computer programme in there 

Something at least drier by day 10 (if it verifies)

Edited October 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

Which it won't of course :- )

[Frosty.]

The first mention of wintry showers on northern hills next week and night frosts, colder for a time at least.

[Bobby]

For settled weather I think the best we can hope for are temporary ridges before the next Atlantic system sweeps in. Certainly a zonal pattern for the forseeable future, probably into mid-November at least everything considered. Won't be dull model watching though with windstorms and floods possible. Typical late October, early November weather really, plenty of time for winter to kick in, it doesn't start until December after all.

Edited October 30, 2013 by Bobby

[bryan629]

Something a bit drier and settled for November courtesy of the CFS...

would this be cold,frosty and foggy?

 

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

Something a bit drier and settled for November courtesy of the CFS...

would this be cold,frosty and foggy?

 

 

cfsnh-4-11-2013.png

Given that friday is the start of nov and the extended ens output is not sharing that look, methinks that cfs chart is unlikley to require any analysis bryan

[Frosty.]

On reflection, perhaps the Ecm 12z T+240 hours has some substance because a large number of GEFS 12z perturbations are also going anticyclonic around that timeframe, so maybe a welcome break from the very unsettled & potentially stormy weather is just over the horizon, there is currently a fair amount of support for a more settled spell when we head towards mid november, even the GEFS 12z mean is climbing on board this idea, at least for the southern half of the uk although the whole of the BI could become settled during that period with overnight fog and slight frosts.

[bryan629]

Given that friday is the start of nov and the extended ens output is not sharing that look, methinks that cfs chart is unlikley to require any analysis bryan

very true BA... ill take it as an outlier then.....looked at the op run and wanted to do this

unless of course the models take on a gigantic flip

Edited October 30, 2013 by bryan629

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby, mild weather set to continue for the foreseeable future

 

All models show a cold front crossing the UK this evening and clearing the SE after midnight. Outbreaks of rain will clear through too by the small hours with a spell of light winds and potential fog patches in Central areas greeting rush hour motorists tomorrow. The North and West will already be more cloudy again with showery outbreaks of rain in the morning as a broad Westerly flow takes hold across the UK. This showery rain theme spreads to all other areas by the end of the day with some heavier outbreaks of rain in places. On Friday a new Low pressure area will move East close to Southern Britain with some heavy rain possible there while other areas see more showery rainfall under largely cloudy skies. Over the weekend a complex situation takes hold with Low pressure troughs crossing the UK and their associated depressions to maintain wet and windy weather at times for all alternating with showers and sunny intervals. As the weekend progresses most models indicate rather colder weather as lower uppers become entrained in the cyclonic airflow to bring lower temperatures than we have seen so far this autumn with some hill snow possible in the North.

 

GFS then shows very changeable weather through the rest of the run with milder air returning later next week. This would be accompanied by fuurther spells of rain alternating with rather chillier NW winds, sun and showers. Right at the end of the run a complete pattern change evolves as High pressure moves across the UK from the Atlantic setting up a period of cold and foggy weather with frost at night where fog doesn't form.

 

UKMO tonight shows next Tuesday as cold and showery over the north while Southern areas become wet as a slider front slips ESE across the SW through the day. it would be cold here too with milder air waiting in the wings over the Atlantic for later in the week.

 

GEM shows very windy weather throughout next week with the chilly and wet weather early in the week giving way to milder but still quite rainy weather later on. With winds backing away towards the SW by next weekend as High pressure builds to the SE it would become quite mild in the SE. Right at the end of the run unsettled weather looks like feeding back into the West with some heavy rain moving slowly East across Western areas in a strengthening Southerly wind.

 

NAVGEM keeps things very windy next week unsettled and rather cool weather early on changing to mild weather by the end of the week with SW winds and temperatures above average with rain at times especially towards the North and West.

 

ECM shows a cool start to next week with rain and showers before, as with other models it too shows a backing wind towards the SW and milder air flooding back over all of the UK with rain at times, heaviest in the North. Late in the run is a cold lovers nightmare as a large High pressure centres just to the South of the UK over Northern France pumping very mild and probably bright weather across Southern Britain and drier and mild, less unsettled weather to the North as well for a time. Fog patches may form overnight under any clear skies should wind strengths fall low enough.

 

The GFS Ensembles show that the relatively mild autumn continues. There is a lot of sine wave patterning in the pack tonight with the mean trending above average almost throughout indicating continued mobile Westerly type weather with strong winds and rain. There seems good support for the amount of rainfall to lessen with time and this is due to the slow progression North of the Jet flow later and the proximity of High pressure to the South weakening the rain bearing fronts as they cross.

 

The Jet Stream is showing the UK to be a magnet for the Jet stream which relentlessly crosses the Atlantic at speeds of between 150-200mph for much of the time sending depression after depression across the Atlantic and over the UK or to the North with their attendant rain, showers and strong winds too across all areas at times. Tropical maritime air will never be far away to the South at times and will feed up into Southern Britain with milder air over all of Southern Europe bottling all the really cold air well to the North.

 

In Summary tonight the mild weather is set to continue for the foreseeable and will probably strengthen as SW winds in somewhat higher pressure push weather systems further North later next week. Before that happens though a very unsettled, often wet and sometimes windy spell of weather will eventually turn things rather chilly briefly early next week with plenty of rain still likely. ECM is not what cold lovers would want to see tonight as pressure becomes High just to the South then SE setting up a long fetch and very mild SW flow late next week with some rain, chiefly in the NW.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

[johnholmes]

The odds on the development of a surface high SE of the UK over western Europe=France/Iberia, are increasing as the 3 main anomaly charts have each been moving towards a +ve area moving from the Azores towards the two named countries over the past few days. No sign of any actual ridging with that but certainly the signs are for this type of pattern to develop 6-10 days from now.

Edited October 30, 2013 by johnholmes

[Newberryone]

On reflection, perhaps the Ecm 12z T+240 hours has some substance because a large number of GEFS 12z perturbations are also going anticyclonic around that timeframe, so maybe a welcome break from the very unsettled & potentially stormy weather is just over the horizon, there is currently a fair amount of support for a more settled spell when we head towards mid november, even the GEFS 12z mean is climbing on board this idea, at least for the southern half of the uk although the whole of the BI could become settled during that period with overnight fog and slight frosts.

Certainly looks like being more than just a transient ridge come Saturday week Nov 9th if those charts verify. While I can appreciate many  would welcome a relief from all the rain of late, I dread to think how boring Nov could potentially become if that Euro high manifests itself. Could be very stubborn to shift and generally shape the overall pattern for another Winter season.

[bobbydog]

Latest from Gibby, mild weather set to continue for the foreseeable future

 

 

 

 

Hamlet.... the mild cigar.....

[phil nw.]

The odds on the development og a surface high SE of the UK over western Europe=France/Iberia, are increasing as the 3 main anomaly charts have each been moving towards a +ve area moving from the Azores towards the two named countries over the past few days. No sign of any actual ridging with that but certainly the signs are for this type of pattern to develop 6-10 days from now.

Yes i just had a quick scan through the anomaly charts John.

 

 

looks very much like some form of Euro high close to our south and by day 10 above avaerge temperatures as we pick up that flow from further south.

Certainly nothing in the current outputs to suggest an early cold snap.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Once we get through say 1st week to ten days of Nov a Euro HP/PV to north set up is the favourite, and has been for some time! 

 

BFTP

[Newberryone]

Yes i just had a quick scan through the anomaly charts John.

 

814day.03.gifEDH101-240.GIF.pngECH100-240.GIF.png

 

looks very much like some form of Euro high close to our south and by day 10 above avaerge temperatures as we pick up that flow from further south.

Certainly nothing in the current outputs to suggest an early cold snap.

Could be worse I suppose as in it could be an Azores high 

[karlos1983]

Certainly looks like being more than just a transient ridge come Saturday week Nov 9th if those charts verify. While I can appreciate many  would welcome a relief from all the rain of late, I dread to think how boring Nov could potentially become if that Euro high manifests itself. Could be very stubborn to shift and generally shape the overall pattern for another Winter season.

 

Probably a tad early to write winter off just yet, being October 30th n'all.....

[phil nw.]

Could be worse I suppose as in it could be an Azores high 

Not necessarily..A ridging AH can at least turn the flow north of west and bring in colder air-if that.s what your looking for.

A high over the near continent usually results in warmer south westerlies,often damp and cloudy at this time of year. 

Edited October 30, 2013 by phil nw.

[Frosty.]

Anyway, another 7-10 days of very unsettled weather at the very least to come before any hope of high pressure getting it's chance. :- )

Hopefully the meto outlook from mid to late november will eventually change from mild to cold, sometimes, even when we appear to be staring down the barrel at a prolonged mild outlook, a miracle occurs, so keep an eye on FI for hints of a cold shot.

Edited October 30, 2013 by Frosty.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Given that friday is the start of nov and the extended ens output is not sharing that look, methinks that cfs chart is unlikley to require any analysis bryan

 

But equally, we're all well aware of how the short-medium range ensembles can flip at short notice!

[-uksnow-]

Pub run ensembles once again deliver a fair number of options putting a halt to the Atlantic train in FI - several Greeny highs aswell. Watch this space?

 

~I fully understand the caveats of watching ensembles seeing how they flipped last winter, but seeing these options pop up makes me far more hopeful for a change in the pattern come mid november!

[Richie V]

Well, the 18's deliver yet another huge lump of dissapointment if your after something even resembling cold out to the mid term. I still await a decent gale here in south yorks!

[Panayiotis]

Much better from the 18z ensembles, ive noticed today that the mean line at the end of the run is slowly dropping with it now around 0C. Ensemble for my area:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=204&ext=1&y=140&run=18&runpara=0

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

A signal that the AO wants to go negative n fi this morning . Polar heights is something that we wanto see , the vortex split could be down to wave one activity along with a minor warming up there over the next 10 days .lets see if the trend continues

Edited October 31, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Frosty.]

Remember how the Ecm 12z @ T+240 hours was trending settled last night, well, the 00z has flipped back to unsettled weather persisting. Overall, the Ecm 00z is a very unsettled run, a lot of strong to gale force winds and heavy rain, more disruptive winds at times and rather chilly early next week, thereafter, unsettled, windy but occasionally mild in the south, temps closer to average in the north, the southeast will probably have the best of any fine spells between atlantic systems.

[Captain Shortwave]

Somehow this mornings ECM is even worse than yesterdays 12z. The UKMO is going the same way too at T144. The GFS and right at the death the GEM at least show something a little drier, if still average to mild temperature wise.