Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[Matty M]

JMA has a severe storm in the southwest approaches at 84 hours.

 

[Panayiotis]

It's back up and running now. It stopped during the US government shutdown.

Ah yes, it wasnt working yesterday :L

[legritter]

HI fellow posters ,iv just had a look at charts and data after being away from computer for a short while .i see plenty of action weather on the way later this week ,with many possibilities unfolding ,of course when the modells get more info things will become more clear as to we get just rain rain rain or the possibility of another v windy spell ,certainly wont be boring ,also we start to get a mix of air sourced from different locations .its just a case of waiting gang im pretty confident that the modells will soon be showing charts with plenty of eye candy ,a nice drop of cold air was brought in behind our storm i could  see our amazing night sky clearly last night and today some lake effect short down pours in my location ,so everything to play for .tonights late Fax should be interesting for late saturday ,

[Matty M]

ECMWF seems to have the system still developing as it comes towards us during Saturday.

 

Although it then fills as it crosses the UK (at 120hrs)

 

Edited October 29, 2013 by Matty M

[Man With Beard]

ECMWF seems to have the system still developing as it comes towards us during Saturday.

Although it then fills as it crosses the UK (at 120hrs)

Going through tonight's 12Zs, the pattern seems well and truly set. No sign of any blocking to disrupt the influence of the PV on our weather. More storms probably on the cards, beginning this weekend's, which looks like weakening a little before it reaches us but too early to be certain yet. If the models are slightly out, western areas could see winds similar to yesterday's - if they are right, however, it will be strong rather than severe winds, and probably rain will be the concern instead.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

All models show a ridge of High pressure crossing East over the UK tonight followed by a trough of Low pressure moving East over the UK tomorrow, slowing down as it reaches the SE tomorrow evening. All areas will see any showers die back to the West coast tonight leading to a cold night with a touch of frost followed by a bright start tomorrow with rain moving East across the UK tomorrow. On Thursday the rain will of cleared the SE but with a Westerly flow over the UK there will be an increasing amount of rain and showers across the UK by the end of the day. On Friday Southern areas will see more rain late in the day as a small Low moves east close to the SW. Then through the weekend a deep Low pressure area moves in from the West across the heart of the UK with spells of heavy rain and heavy squally showers in increasingly chilly conditions for all.

 

GFS then shows continuing unsettled weather at the start of next week lasting through to midweek with Westerly winds strong at times with further troughs crossing quickly East on occasion with further rainfall in average temperatures. A window of fine weather is then shown around day 10 as a High pressure ridge builds from the SE. Further Low pressure then moves back in after a couple of days with renewed West or SW winds and rain bearing troughs affecting all of the UK late in the run.

 

UKMO tonight shows a complex structure of Low pressure to the NE of the UK with weaker Low pressure areas over the UK. A broad ridge of High pressure lies in mid Atlantic. Very unsettled weather would be endured by all areas as rain and showers continue to circulate the Low pressure area to the NE.

 

GEM looks totally unsettled tonight with strong WNW winds over the UK almost entirely over the period from the weekend. There will be plenty of heavy and squally showers for all areas with strong and gusty winds continuing to buffet the UK in relatively average temperatures.

 

NAVGEM closes it's run with a ridge of High pressure collapsing SE over the UK early next week with the weekend wind, rain and showers clearing away to fine and cold interlude with a frost before a warm front crossing East by midweek brings a return to mild and damp weather with some rain at the end of the run.

 

ECM maintains it's unsettled stance of this morning with complex Low pressure at the weekend bringing rain and heavy showers across the UK while by midweek it would become cold with some wintry showers in the North and the risk of night time frost. Later in the run the winds do settle back towards the West or even South of West with rising temperatures and rain at times for all again by Day 10.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to look pretty standard fayre for the early part of November with things averaging a smidgen above the long term mean when taking the members of the pack as a whole. There is an undulating pattern too which suggest frequent passing of opposing air masses carried in on the back of a strong Westerly flow for much of the time. Rainfall is heavy and copious in places next week before gradually reducing to average levels by the end of the run.

 

The Jet Stream continues to show the flow crossing the Atlantic and across the British Isles for the foreseeable future with a slow drift towards the north likely over the second half of the run.

 

In Summary a very unsettled set of model runs tonight seem to highlight another potent Low at the weekend delivering another spell of wet and very windy weather, though not to the extent of the severe weather the SE endured early this week. Nevertheless, rainfall will become a talking point as ground becomes saturated giving local flooding possibilities at times early next week. Beyond that and there is every chance that the weather will remain changeable with rain, wind and showers affecting all areas at times. With winds always maintaining a Westerly bias it is unlikely there would be much in the way of cold weather anywhere.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

[bryan629]

Pub Run Snow Alert......

 

 

 

 

 

ERM....BANK !!!! 

Edited October 29, 2013 by bryan629

[Matty M]

Last orders

Surely the mild can't last, joking aside..

Well the cold period lasted from sometime in 2008 to March 2013, so who says the mild period won't last for that long! Beyond the next 2/3 weeks nobody can really tell which way things will go. Eyes on the strat thread for some helping hand to break the zonal train.

[BlueHedgehog074]

It looks like the GFS 18Z had clearly been to the pub tonight...

 

But with that Northerly locked away in the filing cabinet of deep Fantasy Island, the usual caution should be applied. It does look like, though, the models agree overall with the flat, mobile, Westerly, pattern continuing for the next week or so with areas of High Pressure to our South, and areas of Low heights to our North. Spells of rain and showers look to be a common feature as well, especially to the North-West of the UK. And depending on how this weekend's possible storm behaves, it could also be rather gusty. Mind you, even during today (Wednesday), Thursday and Friday, North-Western areas will, at least, likely experience some quite windy weather with the isobars from the Low Pressure system to the West/North-West, looking somewhat tightly packed over the North-Western parts of the UK). 

 

As well as periods of mild South-Westerly or Westerly winds, periods of cooler North-Westerly winds, however, do look possible at times, too, as Low Pressure systems head to the East of the UK with some troughing going South-East into Europe. (This looks most especially true on the 12Z ECMWF run from around the 120 to 168 hour mark, until the Azores High from the South-West tries to cut off this troughing and the Lows become deflected North-Eastwards).

 

Although the gateway to a cold, blocked pattern admittedly seems unlikely for the time being, I suppose enough amplification in the pattern with possible pronounced ridges of High Pressure to our West (with the help of an amplified Jet stream) could throw up a Northerly toppler, just like on the GFS 18Z.... Eventually!

 

[Iceni]

It looks like the GFS 18Z had clearly been to the pub tonight...

 

But with that Northerly locked away in the filing cabinet of deep Fantasy Island, the usual caution should be applied. It does look like, though, the models agree overall with the flat, mobile, Westerly, pattern continuing for the next week or so with areas of High Pressure to our South, and areas of Low heights to our North. Spells of rain and showers look to be a common feature as well, especially to the North-West of the UK. And depending on how this weekend's possible storm behaves, it could also be rather gusty. Mind you, even during today (Wednesday), Thursday and Friday, North-Western areas will, at least, likely experience some quite windy weather with the isobars from the Low Pressure system to the West/North-West, looking somewhat tightly packed over the North-Western parts of the UK). 

 

As well as periods of mild South-Westerly or Westerly winds, periods of cooler North-Westerly winds, however, do look possible at times, too, as Low Pressure systems head to the East of the UK with some troughing going South-East into Europe. (This looks most especially true on the 12Z ECMWF run from around the 120 to 168 hour mark, until the Azores High from the South-West tries to cut off this troughing and the Lows become deflected North-Eastwards).

 

Although the gateway to a cold, blocked pattern admittedly seems unlikely for the time being, I suppose enough amplification in the pattern with possible pronounced ridges of High Pressure to our West (with the help of an amplified Jet stream) could throw up a Northerly toppler, just like on the GFS 18Z.... Eventually!

 

 

But wasn't it what's sneeringly called the GFS 18z 'pub run' which correctly called St Jude's storm a few days ago?

 

I think it was on a Friday night too. LOL.

[Ian Brown]

Well the cold period lasted from sometime in 2008 to March 2013, so who says the mild period won't last for that long! Beyond the next 2/3 weeks nobody can really tell which way things will go. Eyes on the strat thread for some helping hand to break the zonal train.

 

Yes, a relentless zonal barrage this morning from the GFS taking us through to the mid point of November, with nothing to suggest that we could see any sort of break in the pattern never mind a complete change.

[tight isobar]

Although, at this very moment the Atlantic onslaught is modeled until around mid nov, with at best breif incurs of any more fridged just that (breif) I would erge caution if either convinced/ or willing this scenario for any longer than that,!!. Signs are there, and imo will become even more define shortly for elapsed of mobile conditions, mid month onward!...

And yes for complete flip

[Man With Beard]

Saturday's lows are more of a worry this morning on GFS and UKMO, different routes into the UK but probably 70 mph + gusts again. ECM, however, doesn't develop the low beyond a wave.

[johnholmes]

But wasn't it what's sneeringly called the GFS 18z 'pub run' which correctly called St Jude's storm a few days ago?

 

I think it was on a Friday night too. LOL.

 

It was the 18z GFS but it was Saturday not Friday

[Captain Shortwave]

Saturday's lows are more of a worry this morning on GFS and UKMO, different routes into the UK but probably 70 mph + gusts again. ECM, however, doesn't develop the low beyond a wave.

The GFS would produce gales in northern areas, the winds look fresh to strong in strength on the UKMO. Not really anything of note, especially given the time of year. 

The output could be summed up simply as standard zonal October/November garbage. Wet and windy at times with some brief drier and cooler interludes. Very standard fare.

Edited October 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[snowking]

The GFS would produce gales in northern areas, the winds look fresh to strong in strength on the UKMO. Not really anything of note, especially given the time of year. 

The output could be summed up simply as standard zonal October/November garbage. Wet and windy at times with some brief drier and cooler interludes. Very standard fare.

Couldn't have put it better.

 

Around 20% of the GEFS and ECM EPS members still develop something more rigorous, but amongst the other 80% which reflect the operational and control runs really rather well (albeit some subtle differences in timing), maximum wind speeds are modelled to be around 55knots (~63mph) along some West facing Irish sea coasts.

 

Still worthy of a warning I'm sure, but present modelling does not lend too much credence to a scenario similar to that of Sunday Night/Monday.

 

A few wet and windy bonfire's this weekend though.

 

SK

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

All models maintain a very unsettled theme over the coming 4-5 days. A weak ridge is moving away East and a cold front will move slowly ESE across the UK today and tonight bringing a spell of rain for all, slow to clear the SE tonight. All other areas will become clearer but with showers in the NW and these will extend to other areas tomorrow in a blustery West wind. On Friday pressure will be falling across the UK and it looks like a disturbed weekend is likely with rain and showers for all and it will feel quite chilly by Sunday. Most models support quite a deep Low pressure crossing Northern Britain on Sunday though ECM doesn't develop this as much today.

 

GFS then leads us into the new week with continued Low pressure sliding ESE across Southern Britain early next week with these areas seeing a cold and wet spell early in the week. the North would maintain a showery theme. From midweek on milder air will be wafting across the UK on backing wind towards the SW but further cold fronts will bring a succession of injections of polar maritime air with sunshine and showers. This pattern sees us through to the end of the run with strong winds at times blowing from the West.

 

UKMO closes it's run early next week with a bank of Low pressure to the North-west and NE of the UK with a chilly and unstable NW flow across Britain with rain and showers at times with some drier intervals in between. Milder air in association with the Low to the NW is waiting in the wings to maintain the changeable but probably milder feed of strong winds across the UK from midweek.

 

GEM today is very unsettled with continuous spells of rain alternating with colder and brighter weather when a mix of sunshine and showers would be more likely. A few drier periods in association with transient ridges moving across between the systems would be our only prospect of a drier period between the rain. Temperatures would fluctuate between rather mild in the South at times to rather cold in the polar maritime feeds behind each cold front.

 

NAVGEM also highlights a rather cold and unsettled start to next week as it pulls Low pressure ESE across Southern Britain and over to Europe. the cyclonic cold winds with rain and showers eventually become replaced by milder but still equally unsettled conditions from midweek as milder air returns from the Atlantic.

 

ECM today highlights a very unsettled and rather chilly start to next week with rain or showers as Low pressure slides ESE across Southern Britain. By midweek this is superseded by milder air behind a warm front moving East over Britain which leads us back into unsettled and windy weather with rain at times, heaviest in the North and West by late in the week. Temperatures would likely recover by then to near the early November average.

 

The GFS Ensembles today show a lot of scatter from mid run this morning all based around a continuing Autumn pattern of a basic Westerly airflow, strong at times and with  successive pulses of warm tropical maritime air alternating with colder polar maritime air as each frontal system passes. In this format there is little opportunity for anything meaningfully cold hence none shown.

 

The Jet Stream maintains it's powerful status crossing the Atlantic and over the UK throughout the entire run and I expect to see little change to the weather pattern over the UK as a result while this pattern is maintained.

 

In Summary it's a continuation of what's gone before today with unsettled and windy weather under a totally Atlantic dominated weather pattern with the Azores High well at home to the SW and Low pressure to the North. The strong Jet over the Atlantic and over the UK continues to feed in successive Low's and troughs across the Atlantic and over the UK with their attendant rain and showers. With such Atlantic domination there is little opportunity for any meaningful cold weather though there is a window of rather chilly conditions early next week for all as winds tilt more North or NW for a time when the Scottish mountains could see some snowfall for a time. However, it doesn't take long for the Atlantic conveyor belt to shove this out of the way in preference to milder and windy weather with further rain for all later next week and beyond.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

morning  all just  looked  deep  in to fantasy world  looking  wet possible  windy lots nasty looking  weather  coming  out  of the Atlantic  at the  moment

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Morning folks, just going to highlight a couple of charts which I think could develop into something with some cold air wrapped into it possibly bringing a wintry flavour to high ground.  I have mentioned that around the period of Guy Fawkes could be put under strain.  Could these features be nothing or signs of a development

 

 

GFS

 

 

GEM

 

 

Remember, thoughts of continuation of southerly tracking LPs first  week/ten days of Nov.  Worth eyeing up I think as we may have something interesting coming.

 

BFTP

[MP-R]

My relatively non-technical look at things tells me that the outlook seems pretty zonal at least until the middle of November. However depressing that is, it's good we're seeing this now rather than establishing itself in December like in 2011. The GFS O6Z however does illustrate how brief cold shots are possible, first next Monday when one low exits pulling in colder air from the north briefly before a new low exerts its influence from the 5th onwards. Equally, cut-off lows are quite common in these sorts of setups. I know we're not in winter yet but I remember in December 2004 during the zonal spell that heavy rain quickly turned to snow overnight and gave a good few inches as winds backed northeasterly on the rear of a cut-off.Anyway, here and now it looks like becoming a tad milder after today until the weekend, then cooler from Sunday before returning to something milder midweek next week. All in all, a more traditional spell of Atlantic weather as opposed to the constant mild-warm nothingness that has characterised a lot of October. 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is very unsettled throughout with the PFJ regularly to the south of the uk, at least through the first half of the run with deep lows pushing in from the west bringing bouts of wet and windy weather and average temps but sometimes feeling rather colder, especially during the strongest winds, not much in the way of mild weather, certainly nothing like we have seen for much of this autumn. The uk seems to be locked into a prolonged unsettled pattern which could persist until mid november and beyond, however, the south will probably have the best of any drier and sunny spells in between times. This weekend is looking rather chilly with a showery nw'ly flow.

Edited October 30, 2013 by Frosty.

[summer blizzard]

Both the GFS and ECWMF to day 8 essentially agree that while the jet will weaken it essentially stays on the same track. What this means for the UK is there is likely to be a greater N-S split as pressure is higher across the south but no great difference after the opening cool days to November.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op is a very turbulent run with frequent outbreaks of wet and very windy weather with temperatures up and down due to the rapid changes in airmass between warm front sectors and the backwash of cooler north atlantic air sweeping in behind cold fronts, there are just very brief flat atlantic ridges separating us from the next vigorous depression, the worst of the weather being across the north and west, the southeast probably doing best out of this due to higher pressure across the near continent at times but generally it's a very unsettled outlook with strong to gale force winds at times, occasionally very mild across southern uk but for most of the time it would be feeling chilly due to the strength of the winds. Another weather watch for late friday and through saturday seems likely as a nasty looking system steams in from the southwest, again it looks like southern britain will bear the brunt of the next potential storm, no real sign of the weather settling down, just little hints that pressure might eventually rise from the south but the further north you are would probably remain unsettled and windy.

Edited October 30, 2013 by Frosty.

[karlos1983]

Could be interesting for the south and Wales looking at the GFS 

 

 

Not ideal for launching Fireworks into the sky 

Edited October 30, 2013 by karlos1983

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A few 12z continue to develop these features I highlighted. 

 

 

BFTP