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Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards


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The anomaly charts have nothing to suggest any major pattern change for the two weeks or so that they are valid for. Remaining unsettled with detail on various lows from the synoptic outputs. Temperatures in general not as high as over the past few weeks, nearer average and a shade below at times. 

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It's nice that it will actually feel like autumn from now on, not an extended summer or an early winter, we actually get to have a few autumn storms, just like we used to :-)

 

The weather has been so stagnant the past 5+ years, I was beginning to lose hope! 

 

The polar vortex does look very fragmented though, which is a good sign, although there's a chunk near to or over Greenland which is probably helping to fire up all these depressions. Plus Canada being so snowless atm, the temperature gradients are keeping the jet stream nice and powerful. :-)

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Sorry to poke my nose in but can anyone throw any light onto the next low where its expected to track and what this would mean or not mean for us.

Edited by itsnowjoke
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The ensembles continue to suggest a fairly positive NAO as we advance towards November. But as we near mid Nov, the positive signal begins to fall... So maybe we will see something a little more settled by then.

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Early days, some pointers are that it'll be further north - and should it develop. Quite a lively spell of weather it seems is on the cards as the jet-stream meanders closer to our shores.

Thankyou :)
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I like the Ecm 00z trend, generally feeling chilly and continuing unsettled & windy at times with the jet gradually tilting more towards nw-se which is a much better angle of attack for atlantic depressions to take for those of us looking for colder shots, I hope we have seen the last of the very mild weather now.Posted Image

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A very unsettled Ecm 00z ensemble mean this morning, no sign of anything settled throughout so the azores high is not king anymore. We can expect further spells of wet and windy weather regularly spreading from west to east, interspersed by brighter and showery days, no two days alike and with temperatures much closer to where they should be at this time of year, finally it feels like late autumn instead of early september, I get the impression that the ecm mean is showing an eventual trend to rather colder nw'ly winds towards mid november with an increasing risk of wintry showers and night frosts, but cooler and unsettled will do for now.Posted Image

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Early days, some pointers are that it'll be further north - and should it develop. Quite a lively spell of weather it seems is on the cards as the jet-stream meanders closer to our shores.

The way the Jet stream is atm, Its like playing pin the tail on the donkey......The low could land anywhere.

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I think perhaps the most notable thing in 2013 has been how often our any extreme weather has occurred on a weekend...very thoughtful of the weather.

 

SK

 

Maybe an "every seventh wave" thing....nature's number.

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Seems the Atantic will remain dominent for the forseeable future, from prior years experience FI gets closer and closer to T+0 as we move into winter, last couple of years we have been looking at +48 as being FI for snow and cold events, a lot more nowcasting comes into play.

 

I personally do not care much for high winds much more looking for the cold and ideally snow. This winter is shaping up to be interesting though, the snow and ice growth is huge, way ahead of even 2010 currently, models are starting to agree a cool down is likely as we move into mid November (to be expected)

 

Have to say I am worried about toys being thrown out of prams throughout winter though, some threads on NW have gone absolutely mad the past few weeks with people going way OTT from everything from autumn being mild... (yeh.) to the storm only hitting the south.

 

I think I shall stick to the SE thread and here as we move into mid/late Nov.

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This very mobile Atlantic setup shows no sign of changing over the next 2 weeks at least.

The 00z Mean 500hPa forecast for day 5 and 10 and height anomaly NOAA days 8-14 chart all show the same pattern.

Posted ImageECH1-120.GIF.pngPosted ImageECH1-240.GIF.pngPosted Image814day.03.gif

 

those low heights pretty centralised over the pole and mid-latitude blocks around 40N with a fairly flat jet.

T96hrs charts are typical of the outlook with the jet heading for the UK keeping things unsettled.

Posted Imageviewimage.pbx.pngPosted Image850.png

 

Plenty of interest for watchers of wild weather with bands of wind and rain never far away.

 

would certainly agree with that idea phil. The main 3 anomaly charts have been pretty consistent in keeping a more or less westerly across from the states, sometimes a flattish trough just east sometimes just west of the UK but the main trough way west. Just ripe for surface features setting off on their journeys across the pond? Which track will of course need the synoptic type outputs to show us, much as the last few days. Little sign indeed no sign of any major change in upper air wavelength into November, well 15-18 days ahead anyway from today.

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Well what a tragic day for four families who have lost loved ones due to the intense storm. The fact is that folk have to go out into this weather, we can't be wrapped in cotton wool and protected from the worst that the elements can throw at us, it's another sad day but this storm was well forecast, the warnings went out, stay at home unless your journey is absolutely necessary, unfortunately, in this crazy world we have to carry on and deal with it. It looks like staying unsettled with a risk of further very windy weather according to the latest output.

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Latest from Gibby

 

All models show the St Jude's storm now long gone away to the NE. A rather chilly and showery NW flow will affect the UK tonight and tomorrow with the majority of the showers towards the North and West. pressure will be rising steadily and a ridge crossing East through Wednesday will kill off the showers and give a drier interlude for most. However, a cold front moving in from theWest will bring increasing cloud, wind and rain in from the Atlantic reaching all parts by Wednesday night. Thursday will be a benign sort of day in the South with a lot of dry weather and just the odd shower. The North could see a greater chance of rain and by Friday the weather begins to slide downhill again a new deep Low pressure centre to the West of Ireland moving across the UK over the start of the weekend with spells of heavy rain and showers for all. All through this week the temperatures will never be far away from the seasonal average but it will feel rather chillier than of late.

 

GFS then takes us through Week 2 with a strong Westerly flow maintained for much of the period though with short quieter spells in the South. This would continue to mean spells of rain at times but with some drier and less windy interludes in the South. The temperatures will remain well up to average given winds remain from a Westerly source. Late in the run a major pressure build from the South over the Atlantic brings dry weather for all with mostly dry weather with some clear skies overnight and some frost and fog patches possible.

 

UKMO closes it's run with Low pressure clearing slowly away to the East with a strong and windy NW flow over the UK with showers or longer spells of rain continuing.

 

GEM tonight shows deep Low pressure almost continually settled to the North of Scotland with strong Westerly winds, spells of rain and average temperatures for all of the UK with some heavy rain in places at times.

 

NAVGEM looks like keeping unsettled weather going indefinately over the UK as the bandwagon of Low pressure areas clear to the East and approach from the West and NW beyond the term of the run.

 

ECM too shows a very unsettled and windy weekend to come with little sign of any significant improvements thereafter. It will feel quite cold for a time as winds switch Northerly briefly but a weak transient ridge moving East kills the Northerly flow quickly and re-opens the gates to the West but in a much more medramatic fashion in quite mild conditions.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a very sine wave style pattern over the two weeks as successive air mass changes takes place over the UK behind frontal systems frequently steaming in from the West. The temperature extremes are never particularly marked but  there will be some cold and mild feeling days in among the always rather breezy Westerly flow. The operational run described above is a marked outlier of the cold variety at the end of the run.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow streaming across the Atlantic and the Uk for the reliable future before it shows signs of moving further North tonight late in the predictive period.

 

In Summary tonight the weather looks like staying unsettled and windy for the reliable future. there are some potentially stormy periods especially again towards this weekend. In contrast there is also some windows of drier weather, especially in the South and later in the run as signs of a Northward moving Jet Stream and Low pressure areas on a much more Northerly trajectory are shown. With High pressure then to the South and Low to the North this would once again mean temperatures above average as we move into November.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

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At T372 the 850hpa chart could lead to a air frost in North West Scotland. The cherries are very high up in the trees at present Posted Image

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Edited by stewfox
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At T372 the 850hpa chart could lead to a air frost in North West Scotland. The cherries are very high up in the trees at present Posted Image

 

Chance of an air frost in places as soon as Wednesday morning.Posted Image 

 

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A very unsettled Ecm 00z ensemble mean this morning, no sign of anything settled throughout so the azores high is not king anymore. We can expect further spells of wet and windy weather regularly spreading from west to east, interspersed by brighter and showery days, no two days alike and with temperatures much closer to where they should be at this time of year, finally it feels like late autumn instead of early september, I get the impression that the ecm mean is showing an eventual trend to rather colder nw'ly winds towards mid november with an increasing risk of wintry showers and night frosts, but cooler and unsettled will do for now.Posted Image

Latest from Gibby

 

In Summary tonight the weather looks like staying unsettled and windy for the reliable future. there are some potentially stormy periods especially again towards this weekend. In contrast there is also some windows of drier weather, especially in the South and later in the run as signs of a Northward moving Jet Stream and Low pressure areas on a much more Northerly trajectory are shown. With High pressure then to the South and Low to the North this would once again mean temperatures above average as we move into November.  Posted Image                                       

 

Save us and guard us 

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In Summary tonight the weather looks like staying unsettled and windy for the reliable future. there are some potentially stormy periods especially again towards this weekend. In contrast there is also some windows of drier weather, especially in the South and later in the run as signs of a Northward moving Jet Stream and Low pressure areas on a much more Northerly trajectory are shown. With High pressure then to the South and Low to the North this would once again mean temperatures above average as we move into November.  Posted Image                                       

 

Save us and guard us 

This is just one of those things, my opinions were based on this mornings output, not this evenings. Tomorrow will show something else..and so it goes.

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Crewe, seasonal baroclinicity and poleward surge in -ve AAM?. Although I can't see anywhere whereby that would send the jet so south and cause an impactual southerly tracking LP to occur. Maybe something else involved then?The pattern looks like again becoming very disturbed and some guy fawks celebrations may be put under severe strain with more impactual LPs on a track south of the norm. The UKMO has some real potential here, and it ain't going to be mild.http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013102900/UW96-21.GIF?29-06This is at t96 and has real potentila for particularly stormy set up. T120 pretty juicyhttp://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013102900/UW120-21.GIF?29-06Again the wetness levels could be the main talking point with flooding real possibility. I'm wondering if we could get that a bit more south.GEMhttp://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013102900/gem-0-126.png?00http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013102900/gem-0-144.png?00JMAhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2013102812/J120-21.GIF?28-0http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2013102812/J156-21.GIF?28-0ECMhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013102900/ECM1-120.GIF?29-12This is the t96 to t144 range. Some chance here of yet further disruptive weather.And for good measure the GEM has this at t84http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013102900/gem-0-78.png?00So autumn continues to liven upBFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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At the present time I'm seeing flooding as the bigger issue rather than the winds this time. It will be windy but I don't think we will see the winds of yesterday.

I know some on the winter thread are looking at the tropospheric vortex splitting at some point. Not sure to be honest, at the moment I'm seeing a mid latitude block near the uk being more likely than one to the north bringing significant cold. The ensembles for example paint a rather north/south split with the south becoming drier than of late with the north remaining wet and windy.

Posted Image

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Latest from Gibby

 

All models paint an unsettled picture for the remainder of the week. Having said that the weak NW flow today will be superseded by a ridge of high pressure crossing tonight. Hard on it's heels will be a cold front which will cross the UK through tomorrow with a band of rain followed by a showery Westerly flow on Thursday, most of the showers to the North and West. On Friday complex synoptics with pressure falling means all areas can expect some rain at some point, heavy for a few before a more coherent spell of wet weather crosses from the West to begin the weekend followed by a very showery cyclonic flow with strong winds from the West or NW for many Southern areas late in the weekend.

 

GFS shows a very unsettled operational run this morning with a strong Westerly flow throughout carrying gales and bands of rain and showers frequently East which lasts through much of next week before a High pressure ridge extends North over the UK at the end of the run with much lighter winds and frost and fog.

 

UKMO today closes it's run with deep Low pressure out over the North Sea with trailing Low pressure over the UK and the Atlantic gives rise to spells of rain and showers in rather cold conditions overall. Some of the rain would be heavy and thundery and fall as snow at times over Scottish hills.

 

GEM shows a very blustery and unsettled period over the weekend and into next week with some cold weather to be found as winds swing North for a time. There would be strong winds and rain at times alternating with a sunshine and shower mix when some of the showers could be heavy and thundery and fall as snow for a time on Scottish mountains. A broad Westerly flow ends the run later next week with milder air with rain at times, heaviest in the North and West.

 

NAVGEM also brings deep low pressure across the UK at the weekend and out into the North sea where it becomes slow moving for several days allowing colder air to feed South over the UK with periods of rain gradually giving way to showers and sunny intervals. the showers would be heavy and thundery near the coasts especially and again could fall as snow over Northern hills.

 

ECM shows Low pressure well in control too as we move into next week with successive Lows and fronts to the North crossing the UK with Westerly winds and bands of rain followed by showers the main events of the period. Though a little colder at times temperatures overall would not stray too far from normal.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a sustained period of uppers that are normal or thereabouts. There is a lot of rain shown on occasion indicating a strong Westerly bias over the UK but there will be some colder incursions in the wake of Lows and troughs exiting East out of the UK. Late in the run the Jet Stream heads North raising uppers above average again and then less rain is indicated in the South.

 

The Jet Stream continues to blow strongly over the vicinity of the UK through what's left of this week, the weekend and beyond before as indicated above there are signs it could migrate North and allow less volatile weather across the UK, especially over the South.

 

In Summary things still look very unsettled this morning with the next few days looking the most reliably fair days shown in the output today in the South. Winds look like freshening again by the weekend with gales and heavy rain at times for all as another large depression crosses the UK. Thereafter a Westerly flow maintains very changeable weather but never overly cold though a Northerly incursion for a time early next week is shown by some output. Overall though a typically Autumnal period of weather is maintained with only isolated colder periods when a touch of frost could develop should skies be allowed to clear overnight.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Edited by Summer Sun
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