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Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards


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Once Monday's storm clears we start to see pressure rising

 

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Can see the mild/very warm weather carrying on. I think we will consistently keep seeing 16-18c in the south east and 14-16 in the midlands for a few more weeks yet. Also mild nights very rarely dropping below the 10c mark in the south.
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Hi all,

 

Just wanted to update you on the latest track and intensity of the BIG STORM during sunday night and monday, it's going to be extremely serious folks.... gusts of 80mph plus, power lines will come down, trees will be uprooted, houses and business premises will be badly damaged and needless to say, I hope everyone stays safe, batten down the hatches tomorrow night. Posted Image

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Edited by Frosty.
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Once Monday's storm clears we start to see pressure rising

 

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High pressure across a huge swathe of Europe. Looks like all models seem to show some slightly more settled weather especially further south as Tuesday comes around and the coming days. However then point at the next attack from the Atlantic with systems coming across again this time more West than SW. Perhaps then merging to NW as we see cooler air filter through these unsettled conditions.

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GFS in sync with the ECM LR and at T384 no sign of any pattern change:

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A strong anomaly for lower heights powered by a turbo-charged jet pushing more seasonal uppers.

JMA suggesting a change around mid-month (Nov...yesterday's run):

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This also reflective of CFS recent output; just waiting for this to trend in the GFS mean output.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Next weekend could see round 2

 

GEM's take

 

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Bonfire night looks stormy as well

 

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Now for GFS a lot further north with a completely different position for the low compared to GEM

 

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Bonfire night also looks unsettled from GFS but not quite as bad as GEM

 

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Way out in FI but the PV is heading to western Greenland

 

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Hi all,

 

Just wanted to update you on the latest track and intensity of the BIG STORM during sunday night and monday, it's going to be extremely serious folks.... gusts of 80mph plus, power lines will come down, trees will be uprooted, houses and business premises will be badly damaged and needless to say, I hope everyone stays safe, batten down the hatches tomorrow night. Posted Image

Does this not sound like too much speculation??

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Broadly model-related well at least it covers the next 36 to 48 hours, I've popped an analysis into the storm thread which can also be viewed below.

 

http://forum.netweat...rt-2/?p=2816400

 

And another post worthy of mention I feel is the following one from AJ, another friendly regional forum host.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78272-possible-severe-storm-monday-28th-october-2013-part-2/?p=2816228

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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another op run from ecm which trends interesting in fi with a large w euro trough being carved out and the p/v becoming quite disorganised with plenty of polar ridges evident on the other side of the NH. 

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Latest from Gibby

 

All models show an unsettled and windy end to the weekend with a steady deterioration in conditions as tomorrow evolves. A SW wind will blow a trough through East overnight with a short squally band of rain. Following on behind will be a period of showers and clear or sunny intervals as Low pressure moves East t the North of Scotland. Some of the showers will be very heavy with hail and thunder possible in places accompanied by a strong and gusty WSW wind. Things will briefly calm down tomorrow afternoon in the SW though this will be the lull before the storm.

 

THE STORM SYSTEM GFS takes the storm across Wales and the Midlands at a pressure of 975mbs falling to 970mbs as it exits Eastern England. All of Southern Britain could be affected by winds with gusts to 70mph + in exposed locations and near Bristol Channel and English Channel Coasts in the wake of the Low.

 

UKMO has the Low tracking into Pembrokeshore at 980mbs in the early hours of Monday morning, then crossing it through the Midlands and exiting the east Coast at 970mbs with the strongest WNW 70mph+ winds affecting SW and all of Southern England in the wake of the Low with the strongest gusts near the South and Bristol Channel coasts.

 

GEM has a much less developed feature tonight at around 980mbs along the same path as the other output. Strengths of wind would be modified as a result at between 60-70mph in the strongest gusts near coastal headlands and hills.

 

NAVGEM shows the Low as a vigorous and rapidly deepening feature at around 980mbs reaching the Western Bristol Channel and moving rapidly ENE across the Midlands and out into the North Sea at sub 970mbs. The wwind strengths would be around 80mph with the strongest gusts in the WNW flow in the rapidly rising pressure behind the Low.

 

ECM shows the Low crossing Wales at 975mbs on Monday morning and on ENE into the North Sea on Monday afternoon at sub 970mbs with Westerly or NW severe gales or storm force winds buffeting the South of England and South Wales for a time through the day.

 

Following the storm GFS settles things down quite quickly as pressure rises rapidly from the West and a ridge crosses the UK midweek. This holds for a day or two across Southern Britain while the North and West quickly become influenced by a strong SW flow with rain at times. Things would turn milder again for many. Through the remainder of the run the Atlantic continues to hold the calling cards as Low pressure remains to the North of the UK with rain and strong westerly winds and just short drier and cooler interludes, these chiefly in the North.

 

UKMO shows pressure higher for a time across the South midweek before Low pressure regains some control later with a strong Westerly flow returning. It will be relatively mild though through most of Britain to end next week.

GEM keeps things very buoyant across the Atlantic and the UK with mild SW winds continuing to carry spells of rain and strong winds across the UK, very strong at times as some intense Low pressures pass by. Late in the run temperatures may fall back a little as an air source from Greenland develops.

 

NAVGEM keeps pressure High close to the South for a time midweek and a little way after before a deep Atlantic Low to the NW steers strong and mild SW winds back to all areas with rain and showers at times.

ECM shows a quiet and more sedate spell of weather midweek with the South becoming dry at times. Later in the week Low pressure returns from the North with wet and windy spells for all again with temperatures falling back to average levels and considerably lower at the end of the run as low pressure drags cold air South behind a low moving South of the UK.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a very wide spread from quite early in the run. There are more members on the mild side of the run with few showing much in the way of colder weather. Low pressure will be dominant throughout with a Westerly bias to the winds.

 

The Jet Stream continues to look like blowing strongly across the Atlantic and across the UK for the foreseeable future.

 

In Summary leaving the storm system aside on Monday the weather continues to look volatile and often windy with spells of rain and showers for all. Temperatures will generally hold out well with little chance of frost or fog. A drier interlude looks very possible though for the South at least towards the middle of the coming week.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Edited by Summer Sun
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For cold lovers wishing for frigid conditions on a par with Dec 09 and Nov/Dec 10 during this upcoming season you may take comfort from the following quote which came from Mark Vogan, a name that's synonymous with all things weather related. It was in response to a recent online comment re: the present very active Jet Stream.

 

" I've posted about the change in feedback of warm waters as season progresses. Should be mild, wet Nov, similar to 09. We both know what followed.."

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The atlantic sst's are above average at the moment but they will already be dropping especially with all the arctic air flooding south into the north atlantic, the changes that coldies are looking for are already happening behind the scenes, just let nature take it's course and the cold charts will come, I think there will be cold shots sometime after mid november with the jet tilting more towards nw-se.

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The next potentially stormy period being picked up towards the end of next week into the weekend?

 

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Into FI, the GFS is very interesting with the jet displaced to the S and discrete pressure rises to the N of the UK. Doesn't look traditionally Novemberish to me. Looks very November 2009 i.e unsettled but without the traditional strong vortex over Greenland.

Edited by CreweCold
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The next potentially stormy period being picked up towards the end of next week into the weekend?

 

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Into FI, the GFS is very interesting with the jet displaced to the S and discrete pressure rises to the N of the UK. Doesn't look traditionally Novemberish to me. Looks very November 2009 i.e unsettled but without the traditional strong vortex over Greenland.

 

 

OOI Where is the polar vortex atm?

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OOI Where is the polar vortex atm?

 

The polar vortex is denoted by those deep purples on the image below

 

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Deep in FI the PV is shown to split with two lobes now present, with higher pressure over the N pole. This is the beginning of a -AO and something I expect the NWP to pick up on over the next week or so...

 

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Edited by CreweCold
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the NH plots on GEM/ECM continue to tease in fi. infact GEM chucks a discarded chunk of siberian vortex not far to our north.  i still think whilst most attention is drawn to these potentially damaging depressions, many are missing events over the polar regions which could well define next month and the run into winter.

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The Gfs 00z op run is very unsettled from start to finish across the north & west of the uk but the south/se has a window of fine and calmer weather later in the week as high pressure builds across the near continent, however, this is not a signal for a lengthy fine spell because the unsettled weather across northwestern uk sweeps south and east and shunts the fine weather away. Next weekend we get more of that very mild weather, you could call it a blowtorch but the thing that stands out on this run is the almost constant chopping and changing of airmasses with either mild air chasing cool air away or the other way around, there are some very mild and windy days, there are some rather chilly and windy days and there are a few chilly and calmer days with a risk of frost but in general, no airmass is allowed to get a foothold for any length of time. So, it's a very unsettled period we are in, and on this run there is no end in sight with a very fired up atlantic and some vigorous depressions to come until towards mid november at least.

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960mb low next weekend from ECM

 

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This slowly eases away into the following week

 

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ECM ensemble has the low at 985mb

 

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Next weekends potential low will be easier for the met office as its coming from a more common area the one over the next 24hrs or so is unusual as it will get deeper the closer it gets to the UK

Edited by Summer Sun
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Latest from Gibby

 

All models seem to have downgraded the storm system to some degree this morning. A depression of around 985mbs will run across Wales deepening to 970mbs as it exits the East coast tomorrow. Winds will become gale or severe gale force across Southern Britain late tonight with the strongest winds looking likely across Eastern areas and the English Channel tomorrow morning. Storms will die down later in the day with decreasing NW winds with showers for most. By the middle of the week Southern areas will become dry for a time as a ridge crosses East before all parts of the UK become unsettled again with rain or showers and average temperatures by the end of the week.

 

GFS continues it's changeable theme throughout it's second half of the run with spells of wind and rain as deep low pressures cross over or to the North of the UK with spells of rain and showers for all. There is some drier and brighter spells too though with some clear skies at night possibly leading to the formation of mist and fog patches and a touch of frost. Other than that it looks like staying relatively mild for the time of year but rather cold at times in the North following the passage of cold fronts.

 

UKMO closes it's run with Low pressure to the North of the UK with smaller disturbances near Southern Britain meaning an overall unsettled pattern to end the week with sunshine and blustery showers in the North with the chance of more prolonged rainfall in the South at times.

 

GEM too shows a lot of unsettled and windy weather through the coming 10 days or so with spells of windy and wet weather with some short drier and brighter weather in between. Temperatures would alternate between just above and below average but no real frost problems look likely.

 

NAVGEM also shows a better period in the South later in the week as a ridge passes over the UK. Later in the run Low pressure propels itself in from the West with strong winds again for all along with heavy rain and showers. Temperatures would remain close to average.

 

ECM today looks very disturbed in it's later part of the run with Low pressure over or to the North of the UK totally dominant with showers and longer spells of rain for all in average temperatures overall but with some rather colder interludes at times.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a change to quieter weather in the South midweek in an otherwise windy and unsettled period over the next two weeks. Rain and strong winds feature regularly between the members and it will feel chilly in the polar maritime air masses behind each depression. With the seasonal average falling steadily through early November we have to cater for expecting that even average temperatures can provide opportunity for night time frosts and lower than we have been used to daytime temperatures than of late.

 

The Jet Stream continues to power across the Atlantic and over the British isles for the long haul though it does weaken over Southern Britain temporarily midweek as it moves North for a while.

 

In Summary unsettled is the term to use when describing the output this morning. All areas can continue to expect showers or spells of rain at times but some drier and brighter interludes in the South at times too, particularly midweek. Temperatures will create no real problems over the period with only limited frost and fog patches but winds could be quite lively at times though there is no real repeat of tomorrow's expected storm being shown today.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

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The Ecm 00z op is a cooler run than the Gfs 00z with air sourced from the north atlantic for most of the time or a mixture of oceanic and tropical maritime but it's equally as unsettled as the gfs with a sequence of depressions which intensify as they engage with the very powerful jet stream. As with the gfs op, the ecm shows a calmer interlude later in the week with lighter winds and more in the way of sunshine with perhaps a touch of frost and some patchy fog but it continues unsettled and windier further to the northwest throughout. There appears to be no end in sight to the unsettled spell, on balance, temperatures work out close to average but with a fair amount of fluctuation between slightly milder and cooler days but any frost risk is limited to possibly a widespread ground frost during midweek as a  weak atlantic ridge pushes east and then perhaps across the southeast on thurs/fri before it turns unsettled and windier again.

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