Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[Newberryone]

LOL yep, if I can't have frost, this is the next best thing and one thing is for sure, the weather for the coming weeks will be dynamic. :-)

Far more exciting than facing the prospect of slight frosts under a ridge originating from the Azores as predicted by the gfs 6z today in its latter frames ;-) 

[johnholmes]

comments re the 500mb anomaly charts this evening and what may be the general upper air pattern out to the end of October?

 

noaa

both 6-10 and 8-14 very similar, the only change is that the actual flow decreases over northern uk between 6-10 and 8-14.

ECMWF-GFS has shown some reasonable similarity with this idea, so a decent degree of confidence in the pattern the 8-14 NOAA is showing this evening.

Just what effect this may have is not easy to see. It could mean the lows that will form ahead of the upper trough about 70-80 west will tend to track further south with time; the contour heights themselves are not being predicted to change from previous outputs, that is about 552dm over the far south of the uk.

Overall the upper pattern, as much as one can ever say, looks fairly settled in type, does look set into what the 8-14 shows tonight for another 2 weeks or so.

An unsettled period in store for the rest of the month, windy with gales in western areas, how far south is a matter for synoptic runs within the 72 hour time frame. Possible brief colder shots behind any especially deep and south penetrating low but overall the next two weeks look on the mild side.

The mjo is currently almost in the origin!

The prediction is that it will move to a reasonable orbit in 1 which equates to a marked upper trough from the Greenland area down over the uk; this changes for November but I doubt we can really go this far ahead tonight

 

link to both ECMWF-GFS and NOAA anomaly outputs below

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

for the MJO etc simply link on the left hand side of the NOAA web page

[legritter]

As already been stated all modells showing some v mild temp and plenty of rain for many ,and some good interesting weather if any deep lows do form and run across or near us .im always very pleased to see typical autumn weather in the right season .gives us a chance then to see mother nature Balance the books at a later date .so i think to say if we all switched of our computers now for the next 10 days we would know the generall synoptic situation come 27th of October ,ANY TAKERS .

[karlos1983]

18z rolling and look who's got his eyes on us

 

[Cloud 10]

A fairly benign looking first half of autumn for the UK when looking at the 500mb anomaly composite northern hemisphere chart.

 

 

 

Certainly looking anything but benign as we enter the second half of autumn,with the polar vortex really getting it's act together,so plenty of weather "action" to come,and yes,even some good old fashioned zoniality  as well. 

 

 

Today's 12z from the GEM is probably the most unsettled run you could hope to see.

 

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique canadien GEM

 

[Timmytour]

72 hours ago there was quite a degree of optimism from what the models were showing for a cold blast at the end of October.

Now a mild wet zonal spell of weather is "set in stone"

I'll be on here in 24 hours, and quietly confident that once again I'll see optimism in the outlook from cold lovers.

The one thing I know from the last few months is that just when you think the outlook is nailed down, the models flip!

[Captain Shortwave]

Interesting, the low is going to be cut off over Iberia, this would have a significant effect if it were to happen, namely pushing the jet further north

Indeed it does, and the result is some parts of the UK becoming drier

Pub run fails at the low pressure contest and goes for a 1040mb Atlantic high 

This run shows nicely the effects of the polar vortex successfully crossing the pole towards Canada which opens the doors to high pressure developing in the Atlantic and drifting towards the UK. This is a theme which has cropped up of the CFS and the metoffice have mentioned this too.

Edited October 17, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Yarmy]

Interesting, the low is going to be cut off over Iberia, this would have a significant effect if it were to happen, namely pushing the jet further north

Indeed it does, and the result is some parts of the UK becoming drier

Nothing would surprise me anymore after the past few weeks. The random paint splatter low res ends with a big HP block over the UK and colder air infiltrating E Europe. Won't happen of course, but the weeks of atlantic conveyor lows is clearly no more nailed on than the weeks of Euro high was at the start of the month. Good model watching. Edited October 17, 2013 by Yarmy

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A fairly benign looking first half of autumn for the UK when looking at the 500mb anomaly composite northern hemisphere chart.

 

autumn first half.gif

 

 

Certainly looking anything but benign as we enter the second half of autumn,with the polar vortex really getting it's act together,so plenty of weather "action" to come,and yes,even some good old fashioned zoniality  as well. 

 

 

Today's 12z from the GEM is probably the most unsettled run you could hope to see.

 

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique canadien GEM

 

Now that's more like it...I'll tout that its onto something here

 

BFTP

[BlueHedgehog074]

As what seems to be expected, many of the 00Z runs from this mornings models are continuing to show generally mild conditions with High Pressure mostly hanging about to our South-East and an army of Low Pressure systems tracking towards us, or just to our North West. The Low Pressure systems do look like they will become more and more concentrated to our North eventually as models, such as the 00Z GFS, expects the Jetstream to migrate a little bit further North (although this is in deep FI). It does also seem to be the case that the pattern could become flatter, with the mild or warm Southerly/South-Westerly winds that expect to dominate for the next few days or so (along with some spells of rain, showers and blustery weather) become more Westerly. Although there has been some trends to show more of a flatter, zonal pattern in some of the models with the Polar Vortex turning into a bit of a monster to our North, some caution should still be applied. Could always be possible that the Jetstream could continue to track on a more Southerly path and continue to throw Low Pressure systems over the UK (although if that blue and purple 'monster' to our North or North-West does become invasive, this could help promote a flat, zonal pattern).

[Summer Sun]

The pub run at t360 had this

 

 

The 00z run has this

 

 

GFS ends settled

 

 

But before we even think about that there is some potentially severe weather head with lots of rain causing some probably flooding issues

 

18th to 25th looks particularly wet especially in the west

 

Edited October 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

 (although if that blue and purple 'monster' to our North or North-West does become invasive

Yes it could become very interesting if this verifies

Edited October 18, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

All models maintain the viewpoint that the weather will stay mild over the coming week with Low pressure never far away from the West of the UK throwing strong winds and rain at times across all areas, heaviest in the North and West of the UK with sunshine and showers in between, perhaps heavy and squally with thunder. With winds always from the SW the temperatures would remain very mild and unseasonably so at times in any brightness.

 

GFS then continues this theme through the remainder of next week and weekend before the trend towards drier weather moves up from the SW as pressure builds. The Jet flow would move North pulling Low pressure areas well to the North of the UK keeping windy, mild and sometimes wet weather expected still here while Southern Britain becomes dry if rather cloudy but still very mild.

 

UKMO shows deep Low pressure stretching from Ireland to Scotland with a SW flow over many parts continuing to deliver spells of heavy rain and showers along with mild but strong winds. Scotland would see lighter winds and somewhat less mild weather but no less wet.

 

GEM looks a little like GFS as it builds pressure to the South of the UK late in its run with dry weather developing towards the SE later next week and rain bearing troughs and depressions being pushed further towards the NW of Britain with maintained rain at times there. It would remain mild or very mild for all, especially towards the brighter SE later.

 

NAVGEM too shows embryonic signs of pressure building North across the UK late in it's run to end the spell of wet and windy weather with Low pressure shown exiting East in the days following the end of the run.

 

ECM shows pressure building across Southern Britain next weekend albeit briefly with Low pressure shunted further North along with the Jet Stream. The net result would be to restrict the effects of the deep Lows and troughs more towards the North and West of Britain while Southern and Eastern Britain while staying breezy become drier but still very mild in a SW feed.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of the unsettled and often wet conditions with rain at times for all in often windy conditions. Though very mild at first the trend towards more average temperatures remain shown towards the end of the run late in the run.

 

The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow remaining well South across the Atlantic and the UK for the next week or so but there is some limited support for it to migrate back further North late in the run more especially across Europe.

 

In Summary today all models continue to show mild and unsettled weather prevailing for a fair while with SW winds, strong at times affecting all areas. The trend picked up on by ECM yesterday of a pressure build to the SE late next week and weekend has grown some support this morning from GEM and GFS late in it's run, pushing the Jet further North but probably promoting a major winter storm well up to the NW so any affects would only likely be felt in the South and East with the North and West maintaining windy and wet conditions. The one universal fact from this morning's output remains the fact that no cold conditions are likely anywhere over the UK to see out October with quite the opposite more likely of mild and sometimes unseasonably mild conditions likely especially over the next few days. In cloudier skies though strong winds may offset the feel of these temperatures.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

[karlos1983]

I quite like the look of the UKMO @ +144

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

 

Should bring the potential of cooler weather at least! 

[draztik]

Interesting to see the models indicating a pressure rise at the end of their runs this morning. I suppose the question is, if this occurs, what will the longevity be. Will keep an eye on the GFS12z later, as it bucked the trend yesterday, showing more unsettled conditions deep into FI, in contrast with its other runs from yesterday. Also, the update from the EC32 is nothing short of unsettled... so little support there. The ensembles definitely push the jet further north this morning, but they are only moving tentatively towards this evolution.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/naefs_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres&type=2&runpara=

NAEFS 0z for London illustrates the slow pace of any restoration in pressure.

[Newberryone]

Oh frosty, you have no idea mate, hardcore atlantic porn from the GFS this eve. Bring it. I'm quite stunned by just how flat the nh pattern is at times. A very long abscense since we last saw it like that.

Looks like the Atlantic has been given a PG certificate again. I doubt the euphoria of yesterdays gfs 12z output for this similar time frame will quite have the same impact 

Edited October 18, 2013 by Newberryone

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is again dangling a tiny carrot beyond T+240 hours that we may have a cooler north atlantic airflow heading towards the uk just before the end of the month, perhaps even polar maritime, with a relatively chilly and showery spell to end the month but the next 10 days look either mild or very mild, the mildest conditions come during the next 5 days or so and notice how the currently very cold and wintry parts of northeastern europe become much milder as the blowtorch sw'ly flow ignites. Beyond next week there is some slippage back to more average temperatures as winds tend more w'ly and then that distant hint of slightly below average eventually as the lows out west finally begin to push further east. In the meantime, it's a very unsettled and at times very windy prospect with spells of heavy rain and gales becoming more frequent although there will be drier and sunnier gaps, these lasting longest across the southeast. This weekend brings a breezy mix of sunny spells and showers, some heavy and thundery with temps in the mid teens celsius, it's almost like a spring type pattern except for the sun being a lot lower now, then wet and windy at times through next week.

Edited October 18, 2013 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

^^ A very small carrot on a very long stick?

[Frosty.]

^^ A very small carrot on a very long stick?

Indeed pete, it's more like those small tinned carrots variety.

[Bogman]

Ah, the old saying, from little carrots come, um, er........................

[BlueHedgehog074]

Yes it could become very interesting if this verifies

Hopefully that guy, Sulley, won't cause too many problems this Winter. It will be interesting to see how the models handle this 'monster' in the future. I can kinda imagine the disappointments that could occur on here if he hung around Greenland all Winter. :lol:

In fact, it looks like the blue and purple monster is somewhat helping us provide a cold Northerly toppler in FI on the 06Z GFS run. ;-)

Edited October 18, 2013 by DiagonalRedLine

[Yarmy]

Hopefully that guy, Sulley, won't cause too many problems this Winter. It will be interesting to see how the models handle this 'monster' in the future. I can kinda imagine the disappointments that could occur on here if he hung around Greenland all Winter.

In fact, it looks like the blue and purple monster is somewhat helping us provide a cold Northerly toppler in FI on the 06Z GFS run. ;-)

 

He's more than welcome here as long as he comes via mainland Europe.

[draztik]

 

The GFS ens for Manchester 6z show a decline to somewhat more average conditions as we head towards the back end of Oct/beginning Nov. It appears rainfall will be prevalent throughout.

Edited October 18, 2013 by draztik

[Frosty.]

In fact, it looks like the blue and purple monster is somewhat helping us provide a cold Northerly toppler in FI on the 06Z GFS run. ;-)

I will extend my sincere gratitude to the big blue and purple monster if this Gfs 06z op run Northerly toppler verifies...BANK   

Edited October 18, 2013 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

Naefs week 2 continues to show an increasingly influencial scandi height rise. early nov fog and frost anyone ??