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Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards


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  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

    Aahha something of interest at T87 which should within the reliable time frame. Hopefully the pressure gradient will tighten and we may get the first autumn storm here. Looking interesting for the South West and Ireland with gusts into the 60's. Again though it looks like south Yorkshire will be under 50 mph gusts though. North Yorks may get into the 50's though at the present time.UKMo more interesting and that one looks like it could do a bit of damage.

    I heard 90mph for us in southwest?
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  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    I heard 90mph for us in southwest?

    Stop reading the Express!!! :);)
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  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Looks like 11/20 of the 12Z GFS ensembles develop a stronger low than the operational, and track it further north over the UK.

    Including the Control run;post-12721-0-30561500-1382549194_thumb.j
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    Quite a few GEFS peturbations going with a storm

     

    Posted Image  Posted Image  Posted Image  Posted Image  Posted Image Posted Image  Posted Image  Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

     

    I'm guessing about 50/50 chance of a notable stormy system affecting the UK at the moment. If not a storm then likely plenty of heavy rain given the source.

    Edited by Bobby
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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    Youre all saying the GFS has moved towards the ECM but what happens if the ECM throws up the UKMO solution! :p

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The latest models are a dream come true with depression after depression crashing across the uk, spells of heavy rain on friday, saturday and then monday could be a hum dinger with a very stormy spell followed by a blast of colder air..what more could we want, Autumn has finally woken up and is making up for all that lost time :- )

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The latest models are a dream come true with depression after depression crashing across the uk, spells of heavy rain on friday, saturday and then monday could be a hum dinger with a very stormy spell followed by a blast of colder air..what more could we want, Autumn has finally woken up and is making up for all that lost time :- )

     

    The only problem now though is flooding seems inevitable in places which is not good news

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    Youre all saying the GFS has moved towards the ECM but what happens if the ECM throws up the UKMO solution! Posted Image

     

    ECM and GFS look very similar now at 96 hours. Next frame will tell the tale, but based on how they look now I'd expect the ECM not to follow the UKMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    there is such a massive contrast with warm air to the south and deep cold to he north its a absolutely breeding ground for some serious alantic storms whats intresting if the ecm is to be right things could settle down more so in the south after the deep low clears east.

     

    Posted Image

    be nice to see them heights build futher north blocking the alantic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    there is such a massive contrast with warm air to the south and deep cold to he north its a absolutely breeding ground for some serious alantic storms whats intresting if the ecm is to be right things could settle down more so in the south after the deep low clears east.

     

    Posted Image

    be nice to see them heights build futher north blocking the alantic.

    Noticed that aswell it wants to push but is being flattened by the strongest Jet I have seen in a while, however past experiences have taught me that it won't last I give it till the end of December before the Atlantic goes back to its boring self. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    I wish the ECM had a 132 hour chart. It would make things so much clearer.

    Compared to it's 0z run though, it has deepened the low and moved it a little further north now to sit just off the SW approaches at 120 hours.

    I doubt any model will stick to the same output for the next 4 days still though, so in reality we are no clearer now as to how we were at 16:00.

    The potential for a nasty storm is still there, the more uncertain aspect is not so much will it develop, but where will it track?

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
    Taking a look at the short range the next few days and the situation on Mondays possible storm.
     
    Next 4 Days
     
    Thursday - A sunny start across England and Wales while Ireland and Scotland will be party cloudy with sunny intervals. As the day goes on into the  afternoon and evening it will get more cloudy everywhere with rain pushing in from the South West over Ireland, Wales and South Western England. A light breeze for most of the UK and temps ranging from 4c to 16c.
     
    Thursday Pressure Chart
     
    post-6686-0-25167900-1382552580_thumb.pn
     
    Friday - A wet and windy start to the day with rain being widespread with gale force winds likely. For the rest of the day Scotland will remain cloudy with showers but elsewhere will dry up and parts of England and Wales may see some sunshine towards the end of the day. Gale force winds will be widespread across most of the country and temps ranging from 5c to 17c.
     
    Friday Rain Chart
     
    post-6686-0-18020400-1382552634_thumb.pn
     
    Saturday - Sunny spells with showers sums up the weather for most of the day. Gale force winds will remain everywhere and at times the Western coasts may touch severe gale force. Temps ranging from 4c to 15c.
     
    Saturday Rain Chart
     
    post-6686-0-43430900-1382552693_thumb.pn
     
    Sunday - A cloudy start with showers being widespread. Into the afternoon and evening it brightens up across England, Wales and Ireland but Scotland remains cloudy with showers. Gales across Scotland and elsewhere severe gales. Temps ranging from 5c to 14c. Overall a mixture of weather is expected but the theme is mostly wet and windy.
     
    Sunday Rain Chart
     
    post-6686-0-38641100-1382552745_thumb.pn
     
    Mondays Storm
     
    The models are still unsure what to make of it at the moment we are still seeing changes and with this happening we can't fully trust them yet until they start agreeing and show the same thing run after run. But for now lets look at each model and see what they say,
     
    GFS - Agrees with the ECM this evening and a much weaker low than the UKMO. The GFS shows average wind speeds of over 40mph in the English channel on Monday.
     
    post-6686-0-75212300-1382552878_thumb.pn
     
    ECM - Sticks to its idea and has gained support from the GFS today, it sends the low further South than most models it still would give strong windy to the South West of England but nothing severe.
     
    UKMO - Appears to be on its own tonight apart from NAVGEM agreeing on the track. It has stuck to the same idea as yesterday. It shows the stormiest chart of them all this evening.
     
    post-6686-0-62371300-1382553134_thumb.pn
     
    JMA - Follows a similar path to the GFS a weak low crossing the English channel with gales along with it.
     
    post-6686-0-21101900-1382553280_thumb.pn
     
    GEM - Doesn't for a low but its last few runs it did show a strong low crossing over England.
     
    Incase you missed it this is what GEM showed this morning,
     
    post-6686-0-74967000-1382553506_thumb.pn
     
    NAVGEM - It does actually follow the same path as the UKMO but the low it produces is not as deep.
     
    post-6686-0-08096400-1382553367_thumb.pn
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Long may it continue and let's see the jet tilting towards a nw/se alignment as we go through november with an increasing risk of snow .Posted Image Posted Image

    there is such a massive contrast with warm air to the south and deep cold to he north its a absolutely breeding ground for some serious atlantic storms 

     

    Posted Image

    be nice to see them heights build futher north blocking the atlantic.

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Hmm, well this could end up good or bad but exciting, but the low could hit France and miss us, the PM shot could be cut off very quickly and then.....

    Posted Image

    Bartlett time Posted Image

    Posted Image

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Hmm, well this could end up good or bad but exciting, but the low could hit France and miss us, the PM shot could be cut off very quickly and then.....

    Posted Image

    Bartlett time Posted Image

    Posted Image

    I'm looking on the bright side, it's gonna be a rite rollercoaster ride with storm after storm battering the uk.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Ends with PV moving ever so slightly away from Northern Greenland to the centre of  with a low fermenting North of the UK. FI but a something to keep track of, however it is November so its still choosing its most comfortable spot to ferment for 4-5 months

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    well the GFS is throwing this low all over the place between runs. it will be windy but the severity is very much in question at the moment. (as it is with all LP systems at this range and even within 24 hours)

    the MetO are erring on the side of caution though-

     

    "Wet and windy weather sweeps across much of the country on Monday with the potential for severe gales in the south, although there remains marked uncertainty with regard to the precise track of the strongest swathe of winds."

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Posted Image

    Thanks for that. Straight up the English Channel then! :)
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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    Ends with PV moving ever so slightly away from Northern Greenland to the centre of  with a low fermenting North of the UK. FI but a something to keep track of, however it is November so its still choosing its most comfortable spot to ferment for 4-5 months

     

    Posted Image

     

    a lot of "fermenting" going on. are you expecting a 'home-brewed' winter? Posted ImagePosted Image

    Edited by bobbydog
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    a lot of "fermenting" going on. are you expecting a 'home-brewed' winter? Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    If it snows,

     

    beer is on me!

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